[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'S')o why he published all these wrong predictions? Vain? To attract more public atterntion?

[aldente]

Campbell's ahead of the game. I think his original prediction was 1997, I might be wrong though. Then again in the same ball park Jimmy Carter predicted the crunch to happen in the early 80's (Monte once posted the original malaise speach..).

In other words, it is absolutely irrelevant to try to determine specific dates.

Keep in mind that there has been another Carter from England back in the day roaming Egypt affecting the world in terms that he would and does not today.



Point is that after all 'dates' are as relevant and predictable
or unpredictable as edible 'dates' (excluding the common American term of 'dating' deliberatly).

[IslandCrow]

Back in the dim and distant past when I found the ASPO pages (even before I found this site!), it was clear from the reports that predictions were based on a model, and that there was a lot of uncertainty about the base data.

Maybe having being a computer programmer, I understand the principle of "Garbage In, Garbage Out". A mathematical or computer model depends on the quality of the data feed it. I have always found Campbell clearly stating his hesitation over some of the data. Given this I would be more worried if (over time and with more data to input into the system) Campbell's model did not show some changes.

Having said this I realise that the ASPO model tends to be on the pessimistic side, and so when revisions are made for the date of Peak Oil they tend to be to a later date. At least if I plan for the date they say, I may find I have a little more time to make the changes I need to make to my life.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') thought we already peaked.

[aldente]

Is the Russian model in any form forward then?

[seldom_seen]

All fun aside, when Campbell speaks I listen. I have a lot of respect for that guy. If you're hung up on people's predictions, you're really missing the point. The precise date of peak oil is a mere technicality.

I personally could not list anyone's prediction on peak oil. It just doesn't register. What I do know is that we're in the zone, and that's what matters.

[aldente]

So we are on the same page then Seldom!

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'M')r. Campbell predicted several times the peak of oil at the moment I think for 2010.

By predicting several times a peak, which all has proven wrong it makes all his theory of a peak oil in the near future ringing hollow.

I can not tell if their methodology is right or wrong. But if peak oil is true it is a VERY important issue and care should be taken what is written about it, false predictions are too easy to dismantle.

So why he published all these wrong predictions? Vain? To attract more public atterntion?
And do you think he is still believable?

[alokin]

yes, I definitively believe, that oil must peak in some years and it doesn't really matter if it has already peaked or will peak in 10 years.

Maybe the climate change scientists expressed their finding in a different matter, that they've got only a very late general media attention, but their predictions proofed to be true.

In my opinion it is as likely that we're going back to the stone age, disappearing from the planet at all or overcoming the situation buy politically acting (not the governments their folks)

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
')I personally could not list anyone's prediction on peak oil. It just doesn't register. What I do know is that we're in the zone, and that's what matters.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', ' ')

In my opinion it is as likely that we're going back to the stone age, disappearing from the planet at all or overcoming the situation buy politically acting (not the governments their folks)

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
')I personally could not list anyone's prediction on peak oil. It just doesn't register. What I do know is that we're in the zone, and that's what matters.

[RdSnt]

The most discouraging point for me is that, whether peak has occurred already or will come soon, we all know no meaningful action is going to be taken by world leaders or by the public to mitigate the worst outcomes.

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'M')r. Campbell predicted several times the peak of oil at the moment I think for 2010.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'M')r. Campbell predicted several times the peak of oil at the moment I think for 2010.

So why he published all these wrong predictions?

[XOVERX]

The world appears to be past-peak already. At best the world is at "plateau." The world peak production numbers and dates:

* May 2005: Crude & NGL: 82.08 mbpd.
* May 2005: Crude & Condensate: 74.15 mbpd.
* July 2006: All hydrocarbon liquids: 85.43 mpbd
* February 2007: NGPL: 8.24 mbpd.

What these numbers mean is that even as worldwide demand for oil (and associated hydrocarbons) has exponentially increased after each respective date, the world has been unable to produce more than the production that occurred at each respective date. You know, "peak oil."

The "peak" in "Peak Oil", folks, is old news. Peak Oil is not something that is going to happen at some future date.

And this information is literally well-documented all over this board. So it never ceases to amaze me as to the number people who post on this board who keep wondering about "when" peak is going to happen in the future, apparently entirely oblivious to the fact that the "peak" in "Peak Oil" has already come and gone.

The balance of our lives will now be spent in wondering how to cope with Peak Oil, not speculating as to "when" Peak Oil is going to happen.

The crisis has moved from the front yard, through the front door, and is threatening the television set inside the house as I type these words. The refrigerator appears to be safe this year, as well as the computer, but the crisis is indeed in the house.

[seahorse]

This is from an old thread a long time ago, but it addresses some of Campbell's predictions.

Seahorse 2 Wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y take on Campbell's past writings (at least those available on the net). In short, Campbell has been more accurate in predicting some political/economic events than he has been in calculating reserves or estimating daily production of oil. As Lynch points out, Campbell's calculations of reserves keeps going up. For example, 1996, Campbell calculated world oil production would peak at less than 70mbpd. His 1996 # for world oil was 1750 gb. The world now pumps about 84 bpd and ASPO now calculates about 1850 gb (ASPO April 2005 newsletter).

However, here are some of Campbell's previous predictions of fallout from rising oil, which he says are caused by depletion issues. These are summarized, with my comments in parenthesis as to the accuracy:

1996 Campbell states:
(1) North Sea would peak in 1998 and then have about 8% depletion rate(peaked in 99 and has depletion rate of about 5-6%);
(2) Iraq will be needed, meaning "embargo relaxed", to produce all out beginning in "about" 2000. (Iraq attacked in 2003, but can't get it pumping all out).
(3) Graph shows 2005 oil at $30pb (price is now over $50);
(4) Graph shows total world oil at 1750 (he now says 1850);
(5) Graph shows maximum daily output of less than 70 bpd (world is pumping about 84 bpd);

1999 - Campbell's Speech to House of Commons

(1) Oil price shock around 2001 which will trigger a stock market crash (oil prices jumped in early 2000 followed by stock market crash);
(2) predicts hedge funds will manipulate the market (sound familiar?);
(3) Economic tension as Europe, America, Japan vie for access to ME oil, more missiles (what we had was tension over Iraq invasion, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Japanese troops in Iraq, EU tension with each other, some deploying troops, some not);
(4) Oil plateau around $30 pb (way off, now $50+);

March 23, 2000 Campbell wrote:

(1) OPEC will make conciliatory noise about raising quotas to maintain their illusion (sound familiar?);
(2) People finally realize no spare capacity (March 16th, 2005?, Goldman Sachs? Bank of Montreal? EIA updated monthly report of April 2005?);
(3) Upward momentum drives oil through $40 pb (past that);
(4) World, Opec, finally realize losing battle to offset depletion (not quite there yet);
(5) Opec will be 50% of world production capacity by 2009 (non opec oil is expected to be in decline by 2009 as per Peter Wells, writing an article for Oil and Gas Journal, Feb 21, 2005);
(6) calls to send in Marines (Iraq?);
(7) conventional oil peak around 2005 (he has modified this in ASPO April newsletter to 2006, however, EIA April Monthly Update expects a 700,000 bpd shortfall between estimated world oil production and estimated world demand);
( All oil peak by 2010 (latest ASPO newsletter lowers this to 2007, see also Petroleum Review of Mega Projects, nothing coming online after 2007);
(9) 2008 swing share production will be gone and thereafter expect 3% decline rates (we'll see).

All in all, his calculations on oil and estimated daily production have been off, but many of his political/economic predictions have been fairly accurate.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'M')r. Campbell predicted several times the peak of oil at the moment I think for 2010.

[zoidberg]

My 2 cents - a combination of poor data, and relation between being a petroleum geologist and calling the production peak.

By the second part what I mean is, that in terms of his career choice being there at the production peak is kinda like being at the last beatles concert. The other associated honor is calling the date and getting in the books next to Hubbert. So he has a motivation to study this subject and keep working at it with different models & data. So he(and others studying it for similar reasons) get different dates & production numbers. They can't give up making pronouncements on it because this is the err, peak, if you will, of their careers. And someone will get the honor - but you cant win the race if you don't enter - if you know what I mean.

[Revi]

Campbell has a lot more to say than just the predictions. his book shed a lot of light on the oil industry. So what he was off slightly. The interesting thing is that the peak appears to have happened. He is one of the few who managed to get the word. He has been screaming about this for longer than most. Why didn't we do anything?