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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby wxman » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 20:01:48

Am I not seeing what others are about the Yen carry trade?

2-year chart of the USD to yen.
Yahoo charts USDJPY

Same for the Euro vs the yen
Yahoo Charts EURJPY

Seems that the ability to carry-trade is alive and well.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby ohanian » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 21:27:42

http://www.aussie-nintendo.com/?v=news&p=15538


You know the big companies in JAPAN must performing like sh it when the fifth biggest company in Japan is NINTENDO.

And what heavy industries are you involved in, Nintendo-san?

I, Super Nintendo-Sama look down on Sony and Honda and that silly little Telecommunication company NTT.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby grink1tt3n » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 22:13:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'h')ttp://www.aussie-nintendo.com/?v=news&p=15538


You know the big companies in JAPAN must performing like sh it when the fifth biggest company in Japan is NINTENDO.

And what heavy industries are you involved in, Nintendo-san?

I, Super Nintendo-Sama look down on Sony and Honda and that silly little Telecommunication company NTT.


What the hell? Are you okay, dude?
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Re: Dow down 600 pints this week 400 points today

Postby cube » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 22:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '.')..On the bright side at least we have the FDIC this time round to protect us...
The FDIC is a scam. The central banking system can guarantee to never "lose" your money because they have this thing called a "printing press".

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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Jack » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 22:27:40

Hmm.

If the credit pyramid crashes, dragging the stock market, the hedge funds, the banks and the rest of the financial structure down, those with assets will lose a lot. But those happen to be part of the power structure - at the least, they write checks to those seeking office.

So, how to deal with such a crash? A little jawboning to keep the naive in the game. A little bailout here and there to shore up the market. Some back-door deals to help where a bailout won't do. The crash is averted and the markets start back up.

What of the spending? Well, inflation increases. Those with assets (big houses, some stocks, raw land, gold, their own business) do fine. The middle class, after a nasty surprise and some sleepless nights, does OK. The poor - those at minimum wage with no hope of a pay increase and no property other than old rent receipts - they do badly.

Gee, I wonder what the Powers That Be will do?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby grink1tt3n » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 23:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')Gee, I wonder what the Powers That Be will do?


Unicorns and gumdrops for everyone!

Looks like Asian markets are down across the board as well. I wonder what tomorrow will hold (in the past, the U.S. market has snapped back even with lower Asian markets).
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby cube » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 00:04:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '.')..
What of the spending? Well, inflation increases. Those with assets (big houses, some stocks, raw land, gold, their own business) do fine. The middle class, after a nasty surprise and some sleepless nights, does OK.
...
That depends which currency you wish to measure your assets with. For example if somebody were to ask me how much has US real estate prices have fallen? I would say that depends:

- measured in US dollars probably 15%

- measured in other currencies like Euros or Canadian dollars double that at least....30%.

And the housing slump is far from being over. Once we hit the bottom I expect US home prices to lose 60% of their value relative to the world's other major currencies.
I guess that means I won't be retiring in an American expatriate community in the south of France. :roll:
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Jack » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 00:36:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')hat depends which currency you wish to measure your assets with. For example if somebody were to ask me how much has US real estate prices have fallen? I would say that depends:


Excellent point. I agree entirely.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby whereagles » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 06:18:21

I think investors are just cashing in. They need some liquidity to pay for their vacation.

No biggie :)

/sarcasm
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby grink1tt3n » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 16:41:50

H*ly shit.

The market was plateauing towards the end today, then just DROPPED to hit -200 while oil closed a cent away from the record.

What a day.

Listening to the CNBC, it seems it was large block trades that helped maintain highs towards the end. I guess the institutional investors pulled out at the very last moment. What a move.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Ferretlover » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 16:48:54

At 3:12 pm central -206.10
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 17:27:15

Self delete
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Zardoz » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 17:42:04

Another triple-digit drop for the Dow - Dow plunges for second straight day, falling more than 200 points on higher oil prices and persistent credit market fears.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Dow Jones industrial average (down 149.49 to 13,324.08, Charts) plunged 206 points, or 1.5 percent based on early tallies, after falling 311 points just a day earlier, the second biggest point loss of the year.

Quite the "correction"...
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby cube » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 17:57:13

Market crashes usually happen in the Fall or Winter months.

South Sea Bubble - September

1929 Wall Street - October

Tulip Mania - February

It's not Fall or Winter so I guess that means we don't have to worry just yet. Give me a call when the market drops 5% :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby firestarter » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 18:04:05

It's the worst week for the Dow in about five years. I even heard the stock babe at CNBC blame some of the downdraft on the poor 2Q performance form the oil majors. I could not believe my ears when she said their bad balance sheets were due primarily to DECLINING PRODUCTION! Freudian slip?
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Starvid » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 18:13:45

"Stock babe"?

I must start watching American television! :-D

And when it comes to declining production, Big Oil is in trouble.
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Or rather, consumers are in trouble as declining production means higher prices and larger profits for Big Oil.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 18:39:49

Should've been a no-brainer cover at the closing levels. I-bank/HF Stop hunting? Still not oversold so a reaction rally next week is a short
at 13640 if we get there, intermediate term next month- 6 weeks a buy at 12800 or so if the internals turn around. Carry trade will be back before the quarters out, can't be stomaching those 180 bp yield on a 10 year for too long. :lol:

Highly fun week was had by some.... :-D
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Starvid » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 18:50:30

Say that again. In English and with punctuation. :wink:
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 19:10:28

:o $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'S')ay that again. In English and with punctuation. :wink:


The trend is down untill it's up. :) we're at a ~5% correction in stocks now, should correct to 7%-10% between now and october.
Anymore and the fun starts, but I don't see it... yet.... 2008 perhaps....

:)

Thanks for the correction on my punctuation BTW! I bet your Svedish meatballs taste like crap too! :razz: Only joking of course! :)
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Re: Dow down 600 points this week 400 points today

Postby Jack » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 19:12:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'S')ay that again. In English and with punctuation. :wink:


Translation (my take): We'll go down for awhile. If we rally, sell into it. Then we should go still lower - if the numbers look good, buy at around Dow 12800. That should take between 1 and 2 months.

The Yen carry trade will be back, since the 180 basis point yield on bonds is simply too attractive to ignore.
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