[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')uch of the reporting relating to the production declines at most of the world's major oil fields is probably bogus.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'I')'m agreeing with threadbear, who appears to be correct about the oligopolistic behaviors of the oil companies. They're enjoying the benefits of gasoline in short supply much like how Enron enjoyed it when California faced an acute electricity shortfall several summers ago. A similar case can be made for how oil companies are now "gaming the system."

If the oil refiners much cared about providing ample gasoline supplies to consumers during this summer's driving season, they would have made extra sure to import even more foreign gasoline to our domestic market ahead of time, would have purchased more of the expensive sweet and light crude for their domestic refineries, or would have added incremental refining capacity to their existing plants starting years ago. The fact that this has not sufficiently happened implies two things - that the refineries collectively prefer to make as much money for themselves as possible during a time of predictably tight gasoline supplies (and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with this) and that there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that shows collusion and oligopoly in the oil business (not that there's anything wrong with this either - because, in the long run, it curtails consumption).

My own preference is that either the oil companies be taxed for their windfall profits, or that a hefty surcharge be added to each gallon of fuel sold - where revenues collected would be directed into things like publicly-sponsored alternative energy development or energy use reduction programs. But this is America and I'd just be kidding myself if I were to suggest we might actually go about doing things differently. So let the laissez-faire economics rip.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')uch of the reporting relating to the production declines at most of the world's major oil fields is probably bogus.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'I')'m agreeing with threadbear, who appears to be correct about the oligopolistic behaviors of the oil companies. They're enjoying the benefits of gasoline in short supply much like how Enron enjoyed it when California faced an acute electricity shortfall several summers ago. A similar case can be made for how oil companies are now "gaming the system."

If the oil refiners much cared about providing ample gasoline supplies to consumers during this summer's driving season, they would have made extra sure to import even more foreign gasoline to our domestic market ahead of time, would have purchased more of the expensive sweet and light crude for their domestic refineries, or would have added incremental refining capacity to their existing plants starting years ago. The fact that this has not sufficiently happened implies two things - that the refineries collectively prefer to make as much money for themselves as possible during a time of predictably tight gasoline supplies (and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with this) and that there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that shows collusion and oligopoly in the oil business (not that there's anything wrong with this either - because, in the long run, it curtails consumption).

My own preference is that either the oil companies be taxed for their windfall profits, or that a hefty surcharge be added to each gallon of fuel sold - where revenues collected would be directed into things like publicly-sponsored alternative energy development or energy use reduction programs. But this is America and I'd just be kidding myself if I were to suggest we might actually go about doing things differently. So let the laissez-faire economics rip.

[kokoda]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'I')f classic peak oil theory is correct we should be either in ... or about to enter a decline phase. There would be nothing that could be done to halt or even slow that decline. Increasing oil prices would be driven by reduced supplies.

On the other hand if economics is the determining factor then oil production will continue to grow ... but at an ever increasing cost ... right up to the point where the market deems that it is no longer affordable.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'E')nron was one company taking advantage of a monolopy sitaution. They were prosecuted and fined for what they did. Enron was not in a conspiracy or oligopoly.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')orry, I've alrady proved you and Zentric wrong and I am not going to play this little game of yours any more.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', ' ') The fact that this has not sufficiently happened implies two things - that the refineries collectively prefer to make as much money for themselves as possible during a time of predictably tight gasoline supplies (and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with this) and that there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that shows collusion and oligopoly in the oil business (not that there's anything wrong with this either - because, in the long run, it curtails consumption).

[DantesPeak]

I don't know why some find it so difficult to go back and read some prior posts. For example, I posted this on Wed Dec 20, 2006 6:34 pm:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally gasoline imports will have to meet higher sulfur standards, making it harder for foreign gasoline producers to export to the US. However it is believed by energy companies that gasoline imports can be maintained at about a level of 1 million bpd.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') don't know why some find it so difficult to go back and read some prior posts. For example, I posted this on Wed Dec 20, 2006 6:34 pm:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally gasoline imports will have to meet higher sulfur standards, making it harder for foreign gasoline producers to export to the US. However it is believed by energy companies that gasoline imports can be maintained at about a level of 1 million bpd.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'M')y point is that classic peak oil has rising prices and falling production.

The second scenario will see production continue to increase for as long as the market can afford it ... followed by economic Peak Oil when demand will finally start to drop.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'E')rmm. Good point. I just had a conversation with my good friend, Dick Cheney. He said, since he's a good guy who has never, ever had anything at all to cover-up or hide from anyone, that he's going to make his Energy Task Force meeting minutes available to us for a look see. And only to remove any suspicions of impropriety once and for all. Mind you, not that any of us would have any reason to be suspicious. Having Texas oilmen in the White House, makes our country's politics and business simply "drip" with propriety. Thanks so much for bringing up this matter, Bob.

[evilgenius]

I disagree with both lines of argument because neither side is addressing particulars. While it is true what Monte says it is only true as an average across the whole globe. It isn't true for fields where the decline is due to the lack of an application of engineering. Engineering costs money. This is the same for engineering technique not applied because it is known and cost prohibitive and engineering technique not applied because it has yet to be developed and the cost of development and implementation is cost prohibitive.

It also disregard the effect of conservation.

The best engineering related example is that of a structure that does not allow for the easy extraction of reserves because it is too tight for oil to flow at a high rate using cheap or known down well extraction technologies. Invent a new chemical (at great cost) that will bind to the oil and permit it to flow more quickly and the rate of extraction increases. There doesn't have to be a magical increase in the reserve total. The same could be said for increasing the frequency of bore holes per unit of measure (again at great cost). Not every method, nor, in some cases any method, can be applied just anywhere. You can't realistically bore more holes (in the numbers needed) off-shore where the bulk of new discoveries are. You can't apply an undeveloped chemical without paying to develop it and having an environment down well where its application will do you any good.

In sum total the world has peaked. Like all peaks the top isn't filed to a point but it does have an ultimate measure (mbpd). We may reach that number and fall back only to reach it again and again, but eventually we wll reach a time when those kinds of numbers will only be looked upon as nostalgia.

[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')uch of the reporting relating to the production declines at most of the world's major oil fields is probably bogus.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')hreadbear, Why build a refinery when the future implies less feed? That would be bad business. Yet you imply the machinations of superbusinessmen acting in concert. This is contradictory.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wiki', 'O')ccam's Razor is often paraphrased as "All things being equal, the simplest solution tends to be the best one."

[DantesPeak]

The price of gasoline in New York is almost the same price in the Far East and in Europe, and much the rest of the world (adjusting for the cost of shipping from exporters to importers). There are gasoline shortages in OPEC exporter Qatar, and gasoline is in short supply in oil producers Mexico, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq - where prices are very low (due to government subsidies). If there was widespread gouging, it could only be explained by a vast worldwide conspiracy of various governments, OPEC, oil producers, refiners, and shippers involving thousands of companies. Still how would that theory explain why OPEC members are running low on gasoline?

If refiners have deferred maintenance, the main reason is that state, provincial, and federal governments have called on them to keep deferring maintenance since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he price of gasoline in New York is almost the same price in the Far East and in Europe, and much the rest of the world (adjusting for the cost of shipping from exporters to importers). There are gasoline shortages in OPEC exporter Qatar, and gasoline is in short supply in oil producers Mexico, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq - where prices are very low (due to government subsidies). If there was widespread gouging, it could only be explained by a vast worldwide conspiracy of various governments, OPEC, oil producers, refiners, and shippers involving thousands of companies. Still how would that theory explain why OPEC members are running low on gasoline?

If refiners have deferred maintenance, the main reason is that state, provincial, and federal governments have called on them to keep deferring maintenance since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'S')omeone posted a very nice spreadsheet here recently with the numbers, but I'm having trouble finding it at the moment. Here's a graph:
http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/op ... growth.gif

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')b]Why build a refinery when the future implies less feed? That would be bad business. Yet you imply the machinations of superbusinessmen acting in concert. This is contradictory.