[threadbear]

Eventually, a real "crisis" will develop, where the limited refinery capacity poses a serious threat, and along with alternatives, the refinery's problems with processing enough low grade oil will "have to be addressed". This is where the tax incentives alone, are not enough. The expansion and upgrading of the present refineries will be sold as a necessary PPP--Public/private/partnership. (The costs will be socialized and the profits will remain privatized)

Can't you see this playing out?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he price of gasoline in New York is almost the same price in the Far East and in Europe, and much the rest of the world (adjusting for the cost of shipping from exporters to importers). There are gasoline shortages in OPEC exporter Qatar, and gasoline is in short supply in oil producers Mexico, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq - where prices are very low (due to government subsidies). If there was widespread gouging, it could only be explained by a vast worldwide conspiracy of various governments, OPEC, oil producers, refiners, and shippers involving thousands of companies. Still how would that theory explain why OPEC members are running low on gasoline?

If refiners have deferred maintenance, the main reason is that state, provincial, and federal governments have called on them to keep deferring maintenance since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

[bullplug]

I don't know if we are aware of all the reasons for the decline of oil production. I will say, if it it cost prohibited to get at it, the oil companies won't go after it. I think there is plenty of oil out there. But as mentioned in an earlier message, much of it is dependent on engineering and technology and political pressure.

I like to use a very basic example, Gold. In Cripple Creek Colorado, there is an old Gold Mine. There is plenty of Gold down there, it just costs too much to get at it. As a side Bar, if you ever are in the area, the tour of the mine is great.

As far as the refining, Environmental regulations and permitting are so tight, it is not worth it to the oil companies to build more refineries and they still make money. We have not built one in over 35 years. Although some private investors are trying to build one in Arizona, but we'll see if that comes to pass. I don't see the big oil companies supporting it as it will take a piece of their pie in the west coast market.

As far as refineries holding back capacity intentionally, I cannot buy into it.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bullplug', 'I') don't know if we are aware of all the reasons for the decline of oil production. I will say, if it it cost prohibited to get at it, the oil companies won't go after it. I think there is plenty of oil out there. But as mentioned in an earlier message, much of it is dependent on engineering and technology and political pressure.

I like to use a very basic example, Gold. In Cripple Creek Colorado, there is an old Gold Mine. There is plenty of Gold down there, it just costs too much to get at it. As a side Bar, if you ever are in the area, the tour of the mine is great.

As far as the refining, Environmental regulations and permitting are so tight, it is not worth it to the oil companies to build more refineries and they still make money. We have not built one in over 35 years. Although some private investors are trying to build one in Arizona, but we'll see if that comes to pass. I don't see the big oil companies supporting it as it will take a piece of their pie in the west coast market.

As far as refineries holding back capacity intentionally, I cannot buy into it.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')f refiners have deferred maintenance, the main reason is that state, provincial, and federal governments have called on them to keep deferring maintenance since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

FT

LA Times/Topix

[bullplug]

I guess what I am saying or trying to say, Yes the oil companies are a big business and they look at it as a business. Are they greedy, most definitely. I don't think I am sanctioning anything really, just offering up my opinion, or how I see it. Maybe I am not being clear or maybe I am contradicting myself, it wouldn't be the first time.

I will say this, as margins are very very high right now, most refineries are trying to run as much as they can, and if they are not, it is not because they are holding back. It is because of refinery issues. And those issues, involve (1) EPA regulations and what the Federal and State agencies will allow. If the EPA would say to refineries, "Sure go ahead, you can increase So2 emissions out your stacks. Then they would surely run more rate and (2) Lead time to build and install equipment that will allow more rate and still stay within the environmental constraints.

I think it's a bit like the whole power issue a few years ago, when we we're having all these black outs because of heat waves. Everyone was all set to start building cogeneration plants, and if they did they would have made money for awhile. But things cooled off and investors saw they would not have a big enough pay back consistently for their investment. I think the oil companies are the same way.

[TheDude]

My big question is how long will it take (probably with government subsidation) to build new refineries to handle these sour grades of oil? Industry or shadowy cabal, they'll soon face the fact that without affordable fuel there won't be a public to make profits off of. Same public will be howling for more juice, too, of course. That NOPEC resolution that flew through the House tells me that our elected reps are firmly on the side of us Happy Motorists in our delusion and indifference.

[bullplug]

Dude, it will take a long time to build a refinery. They aren't built overnight. Refineries are being built in other parts of the world, but not here.
To run the sour crudes it takes a lot of alloy and refineries won't just shut something down to replace it. They wait until a turnaround or the pipe gets corroded enough they have no choice, which is what you are seeing in a lot of the refineries and pipelines now.

And I think the public is howling now...but even at over $3.00 a gallon, I read just today that travel is up this holiday weekend compared to last year - go figure

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')The low hanging fruit is gone or diminishing, and the refineries haven't even done the basic maintenance or expansion necessary to handle the flow of more difficult to refine varieties. They are and have been in a perfect position to do so, as they are making record profits and have been given all kinds of tax breaks.

Peak oil is real and the refiners have real practical problems, but it is also an excuse as they will use this valid reason to gouge more than they logically have to.

[bullplug]

Montequest, on the topic of oil production, how do you feel about the possiblity of a Refinery possibly being built near yuma?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'S')eriously Montequest...You're kidding me, The American Petroleum Institute? As if you're going to get an accurate portrayal of a problem from someone who is paid to spin, at best, and at worst-- lie. I'm really surprised you'd expect anyone to take it seriously.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bullplug', 'M')ontequest, on the topic of oil production, how do you feel about the possiblity of a Refinery possibly being built near yuma?

[roccman]

I am not sure Pemex will have crude to supply to this refinery given the fate of Cantarell.

[MonteQuest]

Readers, do you see a pattern?

No evidence is offered to prove any gouging by refineries, and all facts presented to the contrary are dismissed with ad hominem attacks on the source of the facts rather than debate the merits or refute the facts themselves.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n Ad Hominem is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument. Typically, this fallacy involves two steps. First, an attack against the character of person making the claim, her circumstances, or her actions is made (or the character, circumstances, or actions of the person reporting the claim). Second, this attack is taken to be evidence against the claim or argument the person in question is making (or presenting). This type of "argument" has the following form:

Person A makes claim X.
Person B makes an attack on person A or A's source of facts.
Therefore A's claim or facts are false.

The reason why an Ad Hominem (of any kind) is a fallacy is that the character, circumstances, or actions of a person do not have a bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim being made (or the quality of the argument being made).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'I') am not sure Pemex will have crude to supply to this refinery given the fate of Cantarell.

[roccman]

I talked with a friend of mine who is a chemical engineer (Ph.D and well worth every letter) a month ago who has worked with AZ CF for the past 10 years and secured the PSD permit for this refinery - he indicated to me that it is not a done deal and significant concerns on the supply are not worked out.

I am working with another client on another refinery project in the area and supply of crude is a potential fatal flaw.

[MonteQuest]

Zentric, threadbear:
Refute the facts and provide evidence of gouging or shut up.

You seemed quite determined to lower the quality of posts on this forum.

The world is reading your drivel.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')uch of the reporting relating to the production declines at most of the world's major oil fields is probably bogus.