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Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:11:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')As a matter of fact I would say more than gouging, by his testimony Big Oil is also involved in fear mongering in an already unstable fearful situation, in an attempt to drive the future's market.


That's a broad accusation. Care to quote text from his testimony and show evidence to the contrary?


Excuse me? I don't even understand this request.


Duh? Show us a quote from his testimony and show evidence that it isn't true and is just fear mongering.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')It is my opinion that Big Oil is creating an atmosphere that either fools people into overreacting or hires them to do so. THAT is my opinion and there is nothing on God's Green Earth anyone can say to intimidate me into changing my mind.


Obviously, but we aren't here to debate opinions without facts to support them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If you wish to go further and use the code of conduct to censor me let it be clear for all to see. An adhominim attack is one levelled at an individual not a small group of corporations.


We don't censor anyone here, especially with the COC.

Your attack was leveled at the credibility of Paul Sankey rather than refute the facts he presented in his testimony before the Senate.

You still have not done so.

And we determine what an ad hominem attack is, not you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n Ad Hominem is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument.


In this case, it is the author, Paul Sankey.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue 29 May 2007, 00:27:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:20:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a matter of fact I would say more than gouging, by his testimony Big Oil is also involved in fear mongering in an already unstable fearful situation, in an attempt to drive the future's market.


I ask again, what in his testimony gives you this opinion?

Quote it and refute it or shut up.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:25:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')The point he makes has no relevance if gas stations are owned by independants. He says "oil companies lose money at the pump" and that is central to his claim. For if oil companies don't even own gas stations it is a mistake of such glaring proportions it should be disregarded. Can we agree on that?


No, we can agree that this needs to be clarified is all. It does apply to those stations owned by the oil companies. The question remains; do independents make more money in a rapidly falling price environment or a rising one?

And since the gas profits they make don't go to the oil companies...


No, the question was never about independants. The question was and remains whether or not oil companies make more money during times of supply constraint and high prices.

You offered a quote in rebuttal which only highlighted that the quoted party seemed to be unaware that oil companies don't even own gasoline stations.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:33:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a matter of fact I would say more than gouging, by his testimony Big Oil is also involved in fear mongering in an already unstable fearful situation, in an attempt to drive the future's market.


I ask again, what in his testimony gives you this opinion?

Quote it and refute it or shut up.


You can't bully me out of my opinion, by telling me to shut up. Sorry, doesn't work. It also doesn't distract from the fact that Sankey doesn't seem to be aware that gas stations aren't owned by the oil companies. That was the subject of our earlier discussion, and I'd prefer to stick to it.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:34:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')No, the question was never about independants. The question was and remains whether or not oil companies make more money during times of supply constraint and high prices.


My, but this is getting tedious. No, they (oil companies) do not make more money in a "rising gasoline price environment" according to Paul Sankey, they tend to lose money.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Myth: High gasoline prices are caused by price gouging
In a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales. In fact, spectacular profits for gasoline
marketing (the service station) are made in rapidly falling price environments.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 00:40:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')You can't bully me out of my opinion, by telling me to shut up. Sorry, doesn't work.


You do know people are reading this, don't you? I'd feel like a fool by now if I was you.

You got your opinion by reading Sankey's testimony. I asked you to quote text that gives you this opinion. Do so or shut up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It also doesn't distract from the fact that Sankey doesn't seem to be aware that gas stations aren't owned by the oil companies.


There are no facts in evidence that he doesn't. You cannot extrapolate that "fact" from his few words. Look at his credentials. Are you nuts?
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 29 May 2007, 01:14:08

Forcing debate, denying people their opinions and telling people to shut up. Is that what it comes to? Have it your way....and enjoy the echo chamber your style creates.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 01:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')orcing debate, denying people their opinions and telling people to shut up. Is that what it comes to? Have it your way....and enjoy the echo chamber your style creates.


Forcing debate? Telling people to shut up? Denying people their opinions?

No one has forced you to debate. That is implicit when you post here.

No one has denied you your opinion; you have just been asked to provide evidence to support it.

And no one has told you to shut up unless you refuse to provide evidence to support your claim.

I simply asked you to provide us readers a quotation from the testimony and to provide evidence that it is not factual and is fear-mongering or shut up.

You choose this response instead.

Why should we listen to anything you say?

The rest of us have to put up or shut up, why don't you?
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 29 May 2007, 01:42:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')No, the question was never about independants. The question was and remains whether or not oil companies make more money during times of supply constraint and high prices.


My, but this is getting tedious. No, they (oil companies) do not make more money in a "rising gasoline price environment" according to Paul Sankey, they tend to lose money.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Myth: High gasoline prices are caused by price gouging
In a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales. In fact, spectacular profits for gasoline
marketing (the service station) are made in rapidly falling price environments.


Have it your way...Shankey's right...oil companies lose money when gasoline prices go up at the pump. You feel better now? Reality has just been inverted for you. Do you want me to suspend gravity too?
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 01:49:18

There are a few things you will need to study if you want to participate in debate on this forum:

The principles of debate—logic, evidence, proof, refuting arguments, rebuttal, etc.

Your opinion is not enough.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 02:00:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') Have it your way...Shankey's right...oil companies lose money when gasoline prices go up at the pump.


That isn't what he said. Your ignorance of gasoline supply is showing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales.


The price of gas at the pump doesn't rise fast enough to offset rising supply costs.

Conversely, the price at the pump doesn't fall fast enough to offset a rapidly falling price environment in the cost of supply. Thus, spectacular profits at the gas station can be had.

So, I guess you have chosen to shut up rather than refute his testimony or show us the fear-mongering?

Remember what I said about joining the ranks of trivial posters?
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 29 May 2007, 02:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ') Have it your way...Shankey's right...oil companies lose money when gasoline prices go up at the pump.


That isn't what he said. Your ignorance of gasoline supply is showing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales.


The price of gas at the pump doesn't rise fast enough to offset rising supply costs.

Conversely, the price at the pump doesn't fall fast enough to offset a rapidly falling price environment in the cost of supply. Thus, spectacular profits at the gas station can be had.

So, I guess you have chosen to shut up rather than refute his testimony or show us the fear-mongering?

Remember what I said about joining the ranks of trivial posters?


Sure Monty, sure...you're the boss. I've conceded defeat. You are way way smarter than me. Uh huh.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 02:16:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Sure Monty, sure...you're the boss


No, the rules of debate are.

Here we are some 9 odd pages into a thread and you have yet to provide evidence to support your position, nor refuted the evidence I have provided to support mine.

You have resorted to ad hominem attacks to discredit my sources, and your opinion to support yours.

The definition of a trivial poster.

Try that tactic over at the oildrum.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 02:36:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a matter of fact I would say more than gouging, by his testimony Big Oil is also involved in fear mongering in an already unstable fearful situation, in an attempt to drive the future's market.


So, any other takers? What in Sankey's testimony would rank as fear-mongering?
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby Zentric » Tue 29 May 2007, 03:29:57

Monte -

My debate with you is over. I now see two ways things can go between us:

(1) Either you gracefully accept my invitation for you to bow out and not post on this particular thread anymore. Or,

(2) If I catch you posting again on this thread in an attempt to prolong the discussion, I will then automatically bow out and I will not be back until you later agree to meet condition (1), above.

If you do decide to go with (1), above, please post to that effect on this thread. And I will then make a point of saving this page just in case your agreement somehow manages to change or "disappear" later.

Thank you and be well.

Threadbear -

Thank you. I invite you to do the same in regards to MonteQuest.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 11:32:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')onte -

My debate with you is over.


Sorry, if you don't like my posts, hit the ignore button.

Seems the two of you don't like having your feet held to fire by the principles of debate.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby Zentric » Tue 29 May 2007, 13:05:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'M')onte -

My debate with you is over.


Sorry, if you don't like my posts, hit the ignore button.

Seems the two of you don't like having your feet held to fire by the principles of debate.


Let's just say that you've clearly razed the standards of debate, Monte. I'm bowing out.
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby roccman » Tue 29 May 2007, 13:12:20

Two interesting pieces on declining supplies and "mitigation":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... 88,00.html

Our blind faith in oil growth could bring the economy crashing down


Britain's future prosperity has been hardwired to rising use of transport fuels, without a thought for the supply drying up


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2585#more

"There have been many claims in recent years that ethanol is going to help wean us off of fossil fuels. In fact, many of our political leaders claim that as long as we just keep subsidizing the ethanol industry, eventually cellulosic ethanol will take over and we will all motor happily along on E85. We are making energy policy decisions based on this assumption.

As this analysis will show, the data we have to date don't support those kinds of projections. Let's consider the effect to date of the explosive growth in grain ethanol production. The difficulty in producing ethanol from cellulose is probably an order of magnitude greater than it is for producing ethanol from corn. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the growth curve for cellulosic ethanol production (presuming it is ever commercially viable) will rival that of grain ethanol. So, let's take a look at how gasoline consumption has evolved as we ramped up billions of gallons of ethanol production. "
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Re: Knowing the true reasons for oil production declines

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 14:42:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')h, by the way...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Myth: High gasoline prices are caused by price gouging
In a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales. In fact, spectacular profits for gasoline
marketing (the service station) are made in rapidly falling price environments.


Paul Sankey, lead oil analyst and Managing Director at Deutsche Bank before the US Senate on May 15, 2007.


This indicates that Paul Sankey either doesn't know that in the US gasoline stations are independantly owned, not owned by the oil companies, or he is describing the distribution system in Germany where the Deutsche bank is headquartered.

or--he might be retarded.


Upon reflection, it is not relevant whether or not gas stations are owned by the oil companies, they still sell the same gasoline as those stations owned by the oil companies and from the same refineries.

Service stations only add on a few cents per gallon. Some states have markup laws prohibiting stations from charging less than a certain percentage over invoice from the wholesaler. These laws are designed to protect small, individually-owned gas stations from being driven out of business by large chains who can afford to slash prices at select locations.

The cost of gasoline comes from these factors:

Crude oil 59%

Refining 10%

Distribution and marketing 11%

Taxes 20%

At a nickel add on at the pump, gas stations account for a little over 1% of the cost of gas at $3.25/gallon.

So oil company profits or losses from gasoline come before the actual sale at the pump...with the exception of the 5% of gas stations they own where they make about a nickel on each gallon.
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