by evilgenius » Mon 28 May 2007, 07:50:17
Hey, Monte, any chance of gas prices not coming down after this summer driving season? There is a lot of talk on places like CNBC about 'oil glut' or 'huge supplies in Oklahoma' but they never mention the breakdown of light/heavy crude.
What will it take to get deep water West Africa up and running? I know that several of the companies involved in the JDZ between Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe are scheduled to go after it in 2008. I think that is the last best place to try for light sweet, but there isn't any proof that there will be much of it there. What there is to speak for WA is a direct shipping route to both the US and Europe.
Even if it does come on line it will follow normal supply curves. There would be a lot at first, then a lessening of production on a bpd measure. And that probably not until 2009. To provide the incentive to develop it prices will have to remain high. With Canterell on a rapid decline schedule, Venezuela in retrograde and the Saudis hiding their decline we could see a serious shortfall in 2008. 2009 things could get a little better, but not for long.
I see the world, having reached peak, bouncing off of the ultimate bpd level until about 2010. After that the governments will aggressively use all of the anti-terror laws they have recently passed against their own people. It won't matter who is in charge in which countries. Today's democracies aren't as participatory as they once were. Democratic government is meant to be an extension of the will of the people, not a separate entity that can act on its own. Sometimes ensuring that requires spilling out onto the streets. Govenment has to respect the demonstration and the people have to have some idea of what they are agitating for. Fat laziness works against this principle. Easy living destabilizes the equation upon which democracy must rely for its essential connection between populace and leadership. Not always nor across the board, but in the circumstance where it involves the underlying reasons for the ease, peak oil, the people seem left out. They know but they intentionally don't want to know. They are aware but they leave it to the experts and the leaders. The alternative is made even worse for their, the people's, lack of the ability to face it. Ultimately if the people can't face it neither can democratic government.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
