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Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Ebyss » Fri 18 May 2007, 08:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Heck, we appropriated $30,000 to remove the weeds from a small pond that happens to be located next to a couple people's houses.


8O I'll do it for $15,000.


It's actually even dumber than it sounds.

The pond was created by damming off a stream.

Now we have a pond sitting on a field that is being overwhelmed with pond weeds.

We pay money every 5 years or so to put poison in the pond to kill the weeds. Then the weeds sink to the bottom and provide a wonderful mucky sediment that, as it turns out, is exactly the kind of material that these weeds love growing in.

We don't remove the weeds, we poison them temporarily so that they can grow back, bigger and better than before. :)

But when half the Board of Selectmen live in nice homes facing the pond...:roll:


Wow - how spectacularly idiotic. Just when I think humans can't get any more dumb... there it is.

Edited for two horrifically dumb typos... :roll:
Last edited by Ebyss on Fri 18 May 2007, 16:44:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 18 May 2007, 13:00:32

Max...

Wind power is a net energy winner, by a long shot.

Moreover, the town is just going to buy and install a few windmills to pay for all of the electricity needs of town buildings and sell the extra to the grid.

The town will actually save money in the long run on this deal. The estimate was $14 million over 20 years assuming that electricity prices stay flat (more likely, they will increase dramatically, producing an even higher return on investment).

I thought the membership of this site had already established that wind had a very positive EROEI?
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Unread postby JPL » Fri 18 May 2007, 19:11:46

[quote="Pops"]
As far as Plan and Prep goes, I guess we are into the phase of Bike-To-Work-Week.
[quote]

Hi Pops,

Hell, don't tell them that summer is coming. Hay making - long grass, hard work but a little roll in the field with my wife when no-one's looking, home-made cider & cheese for lunch, children running everywhere and getting muddy in ditches, and guffawing, and lots of antics and finally getting it all stacked in the barn and finally rolling into bed far to late and drunk for anyone leading a respectable life...

Don't tell them about that, better not to, they might get all un-doomerish (and then where would we all be???).

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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Chaparral » Fri 18 May 2007, 19:23:26

^ yeah and whatever you do, don't tell them that vegetable gardening really doesn't have to be hard or backbreaking work.

You can tell them about James Lovelock's scenario tho... :twisted:
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby JPL » Sun 20 May 2007, 14:10:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chaparral', '^') yeah and whatever you do, don't tell them that vegetable gardening really doesn't have to be hard or backbreaking work.

You can tell them about James Lovelock's scenario tho... :twisted:


Lovelock's scenario is a warning not a prophesy. It doesn't 'have' to be that way...

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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 21 May 2007, 03:03:12

nope lovelock originally was warning. He's now come out and recommended purchasing a hummer or a ferrari and enjoying the time we have left because he now believes we're fucked.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Chaparral » Mon 21 May 2007, 04:05:45

^ Agreed. The warning has become prophecy. I really hope it won't get to that but I can no longer rule it out: the mechanisms are there for the 6 deg C rise and they may be advanced beyond all hope for mitigation at this point. Hope is rapidly perishing in the hot sun.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby gg3 » Mon 21 May 2007, 10:05:44

When I read about problems, I get pessimistic. When I read about solutions, I get optimistic. I suspect I'm not alone in this.

In general, engineers are optimists because we spend our lives building solutions and making things work. (I'm about to implement my trademark telecommuter feature for a company that's in the top tier of solar power contractors in the US, including the CEO's home office, and you can be quite sure that he will tell all his friends...)

Reality is, we don't know for sure. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, pray if you're religious, and meditate even if you're not.

Me & mine intend to be at the southern edge of the habitable zone in the event Lovelock's forecast comes true. So either way, we'll live to tell the tale. I'll be building stuff until the day I drop dead. And I'd sooner die with my tools in my hands than with my hands in the air.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 21 May 2007, 15:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'W')hen I read about problems, I get pessimistic. When I read about solutions, I get optimistic. I suspect I'm not alone in this.


That is true gg3.

But it seems like the more you try to understand the world around you the more it seems like a increasingly complex spider web of interconnections anchored to ever flimsier branches; the slightest puff of ill-wind on one branch could tear the whole thing apart.

On the other hand, like JP says, when you can make food by watching the grass grow life anin’t all bad.


P.S. Watch out for those ticks and chiggers, JP!

P.P.S:
My name is Morgan, but it ain't J. P.
There is no bank on Wall Street that belongs to me.
You may have known me pretty long,
But you sure have got my initials wrong;
My name is Morgan, but it ain't J. P.

:)
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby mlit » Mon 21 May 2007, 19:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'W')hen I read about problems, I get pessimistic. When I read about solutions, I get optimistic. I suspect I'm not alone in this.


That is true gg3.

But it seems like the more you try to understand the world around you the more it seems like a increasingly complex spider web of interconnections anchored to ever flimsier branches; the slightest puff of ill-wind on one branch could tear the whole thing apart.

On the other hand, like JP says, when you can make food by watching the grass grow life anin’t all bad.


P.S. Watch out for those ticks and chiggers, JP!

P.P.S:
My name is Morgan, but it ain't J. P.
There is no bank on Wall Street that belongs to me.
You may have known me pretty long,
But you sure have got my initials wrong;
My name is Morgan, but it ain't J. P.

:)


I used to get optimistic too but seems most of the solutions you read about are to little to late and always end with the message Don't worry you can still consume as much as you want. Crunch all you want We'll Make More!
---the following is not real just made up ramblings--
Most of the solutions I hear about are pretty good ideas until you think it through. Like Ethanol sounds good, cheap abundant corn turned into fuel, helps farmers and cuts are reliance on foreign oil. Sounds like may problems have been solved, I'm off to buy a hummer and do my part and help the American Farmer.

Meanwhile the price of food goes up, some politicians get caught taking bribes from an agri-company and having gay sex with a prostitute and I have a hummer I can't afford to drive and a meth addict stole my catalytic converter.
An Optimist is eventually wrong, A Pessimist is eventually right.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:32:10

We have to remember that most people have no idea what's going on. We have known about this stuff for years. Our massive uptick in pessimism happened about 5 years ago. Most people are getting hit with what's going on just now. They are beginning to realize that their lives are on shaky ground. Their personal choices, like the purchase of that SUV and that Mc Mansion are what's getting them into trouble. They thought that they were doing the right thing, what their society told them to do. They felt that they would be rewarded and live happily ever after in a great big expanding energy world. They pictured themselves playing a lot of golf, but instead they'll be using something that looks a lot like a golf club to hill those potatoes. It's a bummer.

I am still bummed about it, but at least we know what's going on.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:43:22

One of the things I am waiting to watch, Revi, is how the Limbaughs of the world will react to this. The clueless cheerleaders. It's enough to keep you going just out of curiosity.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 22 May 2007, 02:33:40

"Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?"

US gas prices.

This site was it's most busy and doomy when US gas soared temporarily. Then as prices dropped the doom and general site activity dropped. Now US gas prices are on the rise again, and again we get a corresponding rise in doom.

So the massive uptick in pessimism is really because most posters are American, and ultimately it's high US gas prices that cause pessimism.

Ultimately, most people don't really care about peak oil. They just care about how expensive it is to fill up the truck.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 22 May 2007, 02:51:04

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2470

in case anyone missed it...
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 22 May 2007, 04:32:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'O')ne of the things I am waiting to watch, Revi, is how the Limbaughs of the world will react to this. The clueless cheerleaders. It's enough to keep you going just out of curiosity.

Well, there's only one Rush, but we know what you mean.

Watching him and his wannabes squirm and squeal as this plays out will be one of the very few satisfactions we'll get from it.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 22 May 2007, 06:17:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ''')Bout the only optimist still hanging around seems to be Omnitir who just says that the march of technology will bail us out. Even he thinks tech may just as well sink us in the end.

Yes, I'm convinced that one way or another, human civilization is going to end with a BANG. None of this gradual die-off and decline into some extended menial existence bullshit. We are either going to advance to the point where we hit some singularity (BAM! Goodbye human civilization, hello post-human world), or alternatively, we are going to annihilate everything trying (BAM! Goodbye all life on Earth).

Consider this; resource wars are a given, right? I mean, is there anybody that thinks that peak oil is somehow going to result in peace? Oil peaks and we pull out of the ME?

And if there is one sector that can maintain a semblance of business as usual, it's the military.

So over the coming decades, we are looking at escalating conflict, coupled with the continued trend of accelerating technology. This will result in, at the very least, some hardcore weapons development. Today's WMD are nothing compared to what is around the corner, and it won't take much for something to go wrong. A nano-delivered super-virus designed to eliminate specific targets en-mass (for example), could easily result in the "grey goo" scenario (which simply means self-replicating nanobots going out of control). Or simply the development of a super virus on it's own could do it. Or several other scary scenarios.

Basically, the bulk of the doomer future scenarios, that envisions life eventually settling down to some sort of agrarian society, is not going to be possible. TPTB would rather do anything it takes to remain TPTB, and given the likely technology we can expect in the coming decades, if we lose, we all lose, permanently.

In this regard I'm probably the most doomer person on this site. Because the way I see it, the only single possible chance humanity has, is to reach an uber advanced state (in which case we will no longer be human anyway).

So I don't see how a potential economic collapse is anything to be pessimistic about. It's nothing to what's coming thanks to technology. Tech could easily pull us out of this mess we are getting into, but it can also end us just as easily.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 22 May 2007, 08:27:57

I think that the agrarian future is here. As it becomes harder and harder to make all of our living from "the system" people like me and my friends will branch out into all sorts of agricultural ventures. Right now half our heat and all our maple syrup come from our land. The garden is providing veggies and the river provides some fish.

We'll spend less time trying to get our substenance from "the man" and spend more time doing it ourselves. It will just happen. There will be all sorts of nonsense going on in the next 20 years, trying to get the oil back, but it ain't gonna happen. Meanwhile we'll farm.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby TWilliam » Tue 22 May 2007, 12:31:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'O')ne of the things I am waiting to watch, Revi, is how the Limbaughs of the world will react to this. The clueless cheerleaders. It's enough to keep you going just out of curiosity.

Well, there's only one Rush, but we know what you mean.


The term (which I believe Rush himself coined) is "dittoheads". Tho' my personal favorite is "braindead dipsh*ts"...

If there is a hell, then it's deepest, darkest, most agonizing corner is reserved for Limbaugh, Coulter, O'Reilly, Hannity, Savage and all the rest of their ilk. They'll be in the pit right next door to the Bushco crew... :twisted:
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 22 May 2007, 12:51:48

gg3 wrote,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I'd sooner die with my tools in my hands than with my hands in the air.


I liked this quote so much that I decided to improve it.

I'ld rather die with my tools in my hands than with my tool in my hand.

Here's to you gg3 from just inside the southern edge of the habitable zone. I think you need to move North my friend.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Unread postby topcat » Tue 22 May 2007, 23:05:12

The pessimism comes mostly from the higher retail costs of food, fuel, and health care. Mix in the fact that numerous folks are upside down in their home mortgages, others are facing 50% to 100% increases in their ARM payments, and the flippers/builders are buried in inventory.

Others see the 'DOW' going up and up, realizing that a blow-off is in store that will vaporize billions of dollars. And speaking of dollars, way over priced toilet paper.
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