Let's see now...why am I more pessimistic...
The flow of funds. In case no one has noticed, lots of money is going into energy stocks. This has been going on for some time - about 16 years that I, personally, recall. In fact, Matthew Simmons PowerPoint slides discuss the matter. This suggests an ongoing process that validates the view of higher-cost, more scarce energy.
We also note the troubles airlines and car companies have. Further validation.
One looks upon events such as Katrina. This is suggestive of how the population will behave if systems are disrupted. The breakdown did not need to be so rapid, profound, and violent - but it was. Was New Orleans unique? I doubt it.
The war in Iraq has been mentioned. But that is only a small part of the geopolitical problem. Look to South America. Look at the burgeoning population of South America and the Mideast. Then gaze at shrinking grain stocks, declining water tables, and increased climate volatility. What happens when people by the hundreds of millions - or billions - start going hungry?
Then there's China. The world's factory. What happens when their needs, wants, and desires bump up against supply constraints? That should be exciting.
Look now to gold. Is the increasing price suggestive of high rates of inflation? What does this mean for the masses?
Turn to income and wealth disparities in the U.S. and around the world. Large disparities have led to social and political disruptions in the past. Perhaps they will again.
Now consider the development of the so-called alternatives. We see problems developing rapidly. But the alternatives aren't. They're advancing glacially.
Will the electrical grid survive for a time? Probably. Enjoy your plasma TV as your stomach growls - because food is transported by truck. So we give priority to the truckers - and thus wound the rest of the economy. This should transform us into optimists?
Then we have the "new technology" proponents. So, how many of us have truly, actually discovered something new? No, I don't mean a new bar drink. I mean a new contribution, however small, to humanity's store of knowledge. Few hands will be raised, I dare say. OK, so what we're depending upon is new knowledge that will mitigate the coming crises, and do so quickly. Well...we've known about this for years. There's the SAIC report, Simmons, the Corps of Engineers report. And we're doing...what? Nothing, right? And this is going to change...how, exactly?
Look, folks - I'd love to be able to conclude that I'll be comfortable, prosperous, and healthy for a couple more decades. Maybe I could even work on my karma (no, to improve it). But I see nothing, other than forlorn, irrational, unfounded hope behind the curtains. There is no basis in reality for that hope.
I gaze at postings by the proponents of "hope" and I see mere self-delusion and denial. The die-off cannot happen because we don't want it. The failure of our cities will not occur for like reason. Our political mechanisms, which we've seen in action over the years, will suddenly bestow perpetual abundance upon us.
I simply shake my head and smile. And buy more ammo.
