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Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby lotrfan55345 » Tue 15 May 2007, 00:25:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')s that Bicardi I see in the picture? Aren't you like 16? Tsk, tsk. :lol:
1 or 2 notches lower Tyler! Anyway, yeah, Bacardi, stuff to mix it with and pizza & chips make for a fun fun hydrocarbon-fueled night.
All while maintaining a 4.0gpa. I will miss this.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby SevenTen » Tue 15 May 2007, 01:22:32

The world is going into the shitter and he's getting a hard time for enjoying some rum. The real deal about drugs is this: there are only two types of drugs, good and bad, and you will need to experiment with them to tell the difference. If by "drug", we of course mean "something you do which alters your state of consciousness", and then aerobic exercise, sex, food, the Internet, television, religion, art, reading, and music are all, also, drugs.

So which, really, is the worst among rum, commercial television, or organized religion?

Personally, I would save a single good bottle of rum before I'd save the Fox Network or the Catholic Church. And I don't even particularly care for rum.

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may all be *&%^$# right up the ass.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby PolestaR » Tue 15 May 2007, 02:04:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'O')h come on! I'm not a cornucopian but there is still some hope. I've read in posts above someone indirectly comparing the cornucopians' denial of PO with pedophilia and smoking-related cancer. Doomers and cornucopians are too extremes; even if "too little too late" for a hard crash something can be done about PO to "save something of civilization".


Well cornucopians are idiots too, but we are extremely different. I've yet to meet one intelligent cornucopian, can you help me out in that regard or?
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Zardoz » Tue 15 May 2007, 02:21:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '.')..When people that understand the issue clearly can't be bothered to prep I have zero faith that general society will be ready to handle even minor problems never mind a serious crash. This means I prep for the worst case and hope it's nowhere near that bad. It's a far better option then hoping for the best case and being wrong.

What are you preparing for? How do you know what is going to happen, and when?

Many of us feel that preparing for a future that may be utterly unlike what you are preparing for is a tragic waste of time.

BTW, have you included the human factor in your preparations? How will you deal with all those people who are going to do everything they can to undo all that you have done?
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Zardoz » Tue 15 May 2007, 03:43:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')m I the only one who has noticed the sudden surge of pessimistic attitudes on this site?

We all have plenty to be pessimistic about. Click around this site for a while (scroll down) and you'll wonder why you don't see a lot more heavy pessimism than we already do:

The Fall of Civilization

Give those people (especially jezebel873) credit. They're giving new meaning to the term "doomerism". If you should find yourself starting to think that maybe the future won't be as bad was we think it will, a visit to that site will straighten you right out.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Jack » Tue 15 May 2007, 06:06:21

Let's see now...why am I more pessimistic...

The flow of funds. In case no one has noticed, lots of money is going into energy stocks. This has been going on for some time - about 16 years that I, personally, recall. In fact, Matthew Simmons PowerPoint slides discuss the matter. This suggests an ongoing process that validates the view of higher-cost, more scarce energy.

We also note the troubles airlines and car companies have. Further validation.

One looks upon events such as Katrina. This is suggestive of how the population will behave if systems are disrupted. The breakdown did not need to be so rapid, profound, and violent - but it was. Was New Orleans unique? I doubt it.

The war in Iraq has been mentioned. But that is only a small part of the geopolitical problem. Look to South America. Look at the burgeoning population of South America and the Mideast. Then gaze at shrinking grain stocks, declining water tables, and increased climate volatility. What happens when people by the hundreds of millions - or billions - start going hungry?

Then there's China. The world's factory. What happens when their needs, wants, and desires bump up against supply constraints? That should be exciting.

Look now to gold. Is the increasing price suggestive of high rates of inflation? What does this mean for the masses?

Turn to income and wealth disparities in the U.S. and around the world. Large disparities have led to social and political disruptions in the past. Perhaps they will again.

Now consider the development of the so-called alternatives. We see problems developing rapidly. But the alternatives aren't. They're advancing glacially.

Will the electrical grid survive for a time? Probably. Enjoy your plasma TV as your stomach growls - because food is transported by truck. So we give priority to the truckers - and thus wound the rest of the economy. This should transform us into optimists?

Then we have the "new technology" proponents. So, how many of us have truly, actually discovered something new? No, I don't mean a new bar drink. I mean a new contribution, however small, to humanity's store of knowledge. Few hands will be raised, I dare say. OK, so what we're depending upon is new knowledge that will mitigate the coming crises, and do so quickly. Well...we've known about this for years. There's the SAIC report, Simmons, the Corps of Engineers report. And we're doing...what? Nothing, right? And this is going to change...how, exactly?

Look, folks - I'd love to be able to conclude that I'll be comfortable, prosperous, and healthy for a couple more decades. Maybe I could even work on my karma (no, to improve it). But I see nothing, other than forlorn, irrational, unfounded hope behind the curtains. There is no basis in reality for that hope.

I gaze at postings by the proponents of "hope" and I see mere self-delusion and denial. The die-off cannot happen because we don't want it. The failure of our cities will not occur for like reason. Our political mechanisms, which we've seen in action over the years, will suddenly bestow perpetual abundance upon us.

I simply shake my head and smile. And buy more ammo.

8)
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Graeme » Tue 15 May 2007, 08:05:27

Jack, It seems that many others in your country see the future a little differently. Your government, Jeremy Rifkin and Warren Reynolds see enormous economy opportunity for a solar/hydrogen economy.

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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Jack » Tue 15 May 2007, 08:58:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'J')ack, It seems that many others in your country see the future a little differently. Your government, Jeremy Rifkin and Warren Reynolds see enormous economy opportunity for a solar/hydrogen economy.


That's absolutely their prerogative.

But I've improved my balance sheet with investments based on the assumptions listed above. Arguments and rhetoric are lovely, but the market couldn't care less. And the markets are saying - at least, for now - that the oil problem has not been solved.

If others choose to believe Mr. Rifkin and Reynolds - or the U.S. government - more power to them. It keeps the system going while I use it.

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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby SevenTen » Tue 15 May 2007, 09:08:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'J')ack, It seems that many others in your country see the future a little differently. Your government, Jeremy Rifkin and Warren Reynolds see enormous economy opportunity for a solar/hydrogen economy.

eere

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Hydrogen is a joke. It is an energy carrier, not an energy source, you burn more energy in creating the hydrogen than you get out of the hydrogen, and other significant technical hurdles will take at least 30 years to overcome, if possible at all.

We don't have the time or resources or energy to build sustainable, renewable solar (renewable using only solar or other renewable sources) at any meaningful or significant scale. Had we started 30 years ago ... but we didn't.

The enormous potential seen is in the pockets of a few investors, not for the masses.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Revi » Tue 15 May 2007, 09:18:16

People are just responding to the uptick in inflation and the price of gas. They don't really pay attention until something actually happens. As long as they have a full tank of gas at a lower price they don't care what happens. As soon as they have to fill up and the price is higher than the last time they get a tiny inkling as to what's going on. They become pessimistic. The cost of the fuel that keeps their unsustainable lifestyle going has gone up. The cost of living in general is rising. It's finally affecting them. They are finally waking up to what's going on. It's enough to make anyone pessimistic.

They are beginning to have a clue to what's kept us awake at night for many years. We have to remember that we have been in the pessimistic state for so many years, that we are actually moving into hope, whereas most people are just figuring the peak oil thing out. There's going to be less every year, not more. Their fortunes are not assured. It's enough to make anyone pessimistic.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby TWilliam » Tue 15 May 2007, 10:33:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', 'W')e don't have the time or resources or energy to build sustainable, renewable solar (renewable using only solar or other renewable sources) at any meaningful or significant scale. Had we started 30 years ago ... but we didn't.

I heard someone say recently that since the advent of solar cells (the very first one was actually built in 1883), there has been something like 10 square miles of panel actually built, whereas we would need an amount equivalent to half the area of the state of California to generate the amount of energy we use now (I forget if that was for the world or just the U.S.). That's nearly 80,000 square miles. Better get busy... :lol:
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby vision-master » Tue 15 May 2007, 10:49:36

Start smoking one of these. It will help!
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby dinopello » Tue 15 May 2007, 11:30:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'B')ut I've improved my balance sheet with investments based on the assumptions listed above. Arguments and rhetoric are lovely, but the market couldn't care less. And the markets are saying - at least, for now - that the oil problem has not been solved.


hmm, yes my rail and energy stocks have done well recently. But, then again so has everything. A very good bet in the last 6 months would have been on the Whopper (increase of 40% in 6 months). Just what is the market saying?

[web]http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BKC&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=[/web]
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Ebyss » Tue 15 May 2007, 12:50:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust what is the market saying?


That people like cheap meat?
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby strider3700 » Tue 15 May 2007, 13:13:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')What are you preparing for?


Declining available oil of course this leads to
- energy issues in my case problems with the electric grid
- limited food and water availability
- economic recession/depression issues

These things lead to a general breakdown of society, excessive lawlessness general anarchy so I have to worry about
- protecting the family while at home
- protecting the family while out assuming we can still get somewhere
- protecting the property

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
') How do you know what is going to happen, and when?


I don't know what is going to happen. I'm simply looking at issues we currently face and trying to decide whats causing them. Then assuming oil will be depleting how will that affect the current issues and going from there. I have no idea when it will happen. It's already worse then it was three years in some areas.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Many of us feel that preparing for a future that may be utterly unlike what you are preparing for is a tragic waste of time.

Then thats a difference between us. That spare tire on the back of my truck has been 100% useless. Even worse it's extra weight has lowered my gas mileage and used up a noticable amount of fuel over the last 150,000 km. The jack, wrench, and other tools I keep in the back also haven't been used. I would never consider leaving without them. I see my preps as no different.

Besides, really look at what my preps are.
- My house has redundant heating sources
- My house is getting to be very energy efficient
- I have multiple sources of light
- I have tons of storage space
- Most of my house is made up of easy to maintain materials
- I have lots of tools to work around the place
- I have spring water and a plumbing system that works even if the power is out
- I have a large cistern to store my spring water in for when the spring runs dry
- we generate a small amount of electricity via solar and find and use it to run our water filters
- I have a large pantry
- I have a decent sized garden
- We can and preserve lots of our own produce

- We are members with the fish and game club and go shooting regularly
- We own firearms and are proficient in their use
- I have a decent supply of ammo.
- I have a stockpile of stored bulk foods

- we have BOB's
- The house is getting to be relatively secure and I have materials and ideas on how to make it even more so if need be.

If you don't include the shooting and the stockpile of stored bulk foods and the solar/wind hobby my preps aren't that different from what many people do/have I just carry them a little further then the rest. Our bug out bags can be seen as portable emergency kits. Even the government here says everyone should have one for their house. Ours is just a little more then the basic recomendations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')BTW, have you included the human factor in your preparations? How will you deal with all those people who are going to do everything they can to undo all that you have done?


Here's why I live in a fairly rural area. This will hopefully limit outsider interaction. I'm also quite friendly with some neighbours. I suppose if it comes down to it the firearms will probably be necessary. My family comes above everything else.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Jack » Tue 15 May 2007, 14:12:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'h')mm, yes my rail and energy stocks have done well recently. But, then again so has everything. A very good bet in the last 6 months would have been on the Whopper (increase of 40% in 6 months). Just what is the market saying?


That a massive infusion of liquidity is driving the markets.

Six months, a year, three years - these are all subject to the classic distortion; i.e., financial genius is a rising market.

Instead, look at longer trends - those of 5 years, 10 years, or more.

Consider Exxon in June of 1980 - it was $30 per share (not adjusted for subsequent splits), and paid a dividend of $3 per share annually. It's appreciated 16 fold since then, not counting dividends.

Look at Simmons presentation to the investment advisers. Look at the flow of funds to energy stocks.

The optimists make it possible for the markets - stock, real estate, what-have-you - to go up. Thus, they help me. In essence, they are extending the overshoot. But the consequence of that is that the readjustment following the overshoot will be more severe, more painful - more deadly.

Thus, by spreading their message of hope they make the coming doom worse. Ironic, isn't it? They are not unlike those who tell someone to ignore symptoms of cancer, letting the disease spread and become incurable. And they expect applause for their optimism!

Greek tragedy cannot compare.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby PolestaR » Tue 15 May 2007, 15:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I') gaze at postings by the proponents of "hope" and I see mere self-delusion and denial. The die-off cannot happen because we don't want it. The failure of our cities will not occur for like reason. Our political mechanisms, which we've seen in action over the years, will suddenly bestow perpetual abundance upon us.


Exactly.. but doesn't it make you feel good too? I mean these people are going to be easy pickings come collapse time, and they are relatively non ignorant on the whole shebang. Imagine the ignorant folks - they'll be in an even worse position.

The only time I'll help others is if I don't think they will be in my sector post collapse, and in that case I like spreading the "control the population" message. Since you're in Texas you should be careful on the help eh? Don't want to be helping JackKiller too much do you? ;)
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Baldwin » Tue 15 May 2007, 17:16:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'J')ack, It seems that many others in your country see the future a little differently. Your government, Jeremy Rifkin and Warren Reynolds see enormous economy opportunity for a solar/hydrogen economy.

eere

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The talking heads also are quick to report on the economy's health and success. How does a dow in excess of 13300 help you, me, or those fellows who've been part of the record number of foreclosures this year?
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Jack » Tue 15 May 2007, 18:12:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'S')ince you're in Texas you should be careful on the help eh? Don't want to be helping JackKiller too much do you? ;)


Great point!

Hey, everyone! Forget about all the gloom & doom. It was just a joke. Honest.

Hydrogen will save the day! Yes, indeed, solar power and hydrogen will fuel the way to a bright tomorrow - and after that, we'll be traveling to the stars.

I suggest that everyone go out shopping now. Banish the gloom, be sure and consume!

8)
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