[LX1]

i love how pessimistic people are on here, what a joke

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LX1', 'i') love how pessimistic people are on here, what a joke

[deMolay]

My 2 cents...The China thing is overblown...They will suffer hard. Their only chance for survival will be to take more land and resources from somebody...Their aquafier's have dropped thousands of feet, they are farming very marginal land now to feed themselves..And their oil is declining...Most of their potable water has been polluted making googaws for Walmart...North America which includes Canada will take a setback, but we have all the resources we need...We also have the land and freshwater to carry on...I can't see how any area will escape untouched...The dieback will be severe, whether by the hand of nature or the law of the jungle...It will fall to what can be sustained by the work of your hands or a trained animal...ie horse/ox etc...When I was a boy our family garden was 3 acres of land...One acre was potatoes, my grandparents, my mom and the small children tended the garden...The older ones and the men ran the farm...My father had 16 work horses.We worked 300 acres..To work the land and do logging...We burned wood for fuel year round...That in itself was a big job 40 chords of wood per year, for winter heat and cooking year round....I have 800 acres of land...without machinery I will only be able to work a small portion of that area...As America's production falls, and I include Canada here, the grains that have been going as foreign aid will disappear...All the nations will look inward for survival..Those that are reliant on foreign grain will die back severely...Those that have not the food and water and can go to war to obtain the means of survival will do so, Russia will be in a bind as well, their oil is depleting fast..At some point these exporting nations will say no more we need for ourselves....Countries that have expensive socialist welfare programs will be in trouble..People will not be able to sustain the welfare state..And will reject the high taxes that sustain them..This will cause internal strife and even civil war in some cases...People used to some one else paying their way will not give up their entitlements easily and will turn on their masters viciously when the pap is cut off....This will breed lawlessness....I don't think the EU will be as pastoral as some may think...

[SurvivalAcres]

China could lose millions and not really "suffer" in the same sense as if this happened to another country. Which will probably happen, but I doubt if China can be taken out of the picture. In fact, China may well be the next world superpower after this is all over.

Why? Because they can. Unlike other countries, China can make both the investment in human resources and capital that is not afforded to other countries.

Other nations that may do quite well are Japan and Germany.

Peak oil doesn't mean no oil - it means a decline in oil. A renewed focus on nationalization of assets (I read where over 70% of the world's oil supply is already nationalized), military spending and resource wars will commence.

This means they will be coming after those nations that have the resources that they demand. What other nation on earth can expend a 100,000,000 troops besides China?

India.

Both China and India will be very powerful forces to be reckoned with. Both China and Japan already have a large control of the American economy (and capital assets). Even though small, Japan could and probably will exert considerable influence on the coming resource wars.

China is fully capabable of turning the production and export of useless American junk into war machinery. It's also just as fully capabable of remaining a backward country, but I don't think it will do that. The coming resource wars will probably force China's hand into engaging any nation on earth for energy and raw materials.

Other resource wars will also commence, primarily fresh water. A huge displacement of populations will occur throughout most coastal regions too. This is also going to coincide with the energy wars (climate change) which will plague the earth for the next 200 years or more.

[Derick]

I think that prior to the USA & China commencing fighting over remaining global reserves, China will dump all its US debt onto the market (forcing other US debt holders such as Japan to do the same) and bankrupt the USA. This will mean no more US economy or military threat - The end of another empire in terms of human history. Mad Max in the US suburbs will then commence???

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Derick', 'I') think that prior to the USA & China commencing fighting over remaining global reserves, China will dump all its US debt onto the market (forcing other US debt holders such as Japan to do the same) and bankrupt the USA. This will mean no more US economy or military threat - The end of another empire in terms of human history. Mad Max in the US suburbs will then commence???

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Derick', 'I') think that prior to the USA & China commencing fighting over remaining global reserves, China will dump all its US debt onto the market (forcing other US debt holders such as Japan to do the same) and bankrupt the USA. This will mean no more US economy or military threat - The end of another empire in terms of human history. Mad Max in the US suburbs will then commence???

[Derick]

I think you are probably right, the USA will become very dangerous and unstable - Both internally and externally. It disturbes me somewhat that the US still guzzles 25% of the worlds oil even with the prospect of Mad Maxism approaching. The US seems to have no alternative to the Car; No public transport worth anything apart from the Airplane; What are you guys (especially) going to do? We seem unable to get ourselves out of the path of the runaway train!

[Scactha]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')You are kidding, right?
At that time US will make use of its nukes to prevent any superpower forming in forseable future.
If you must go, you may do it with a bang at least.
USA when recognised worldwide as bankrupt will become extremely dangerous puppy. Don't pull its tail or else...

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')You are kidding, right?
At that time US will make use of its nukes to prevent any superpower forming in forseable future.
If you must go, you may do it with a bang at least.
USA when recognised worldwide as bankrupt will become extremely dangerous puppy. Don't pull its tail or else...

[Twilight]

The case of the Soviet Union is instructive. It faced an acute existential crisis: not just economic destruction, but arising from that, the loss of its political system, territory and borders. It ceased to exist as a sovereign entity and found many of its military bases, equipment and personnel belonging to foreign countries. Those units that were ordered to act, mutinied, even the tank divisions and interior ministry forces stationed in Moscow itself.

If a similar crisis were to strike the US in the form, for example, of financial markets imploding so much that the dollar devalues to worthlessness and ownership and valuation of companies must be performed by alternative means, then the chances of military action are zero. The military right up to the generals will be wondering who will be paying their wages next, and the supply chain will be fucked so much, they'll be forced to live off existing inventory. Simple things like equipment deliveries to bases will cease because the billing system will be unsupported. The contractors couldn't be compelled to work for free if they can't pay their thousands of suppliers. And so on.

A bankrupt US recognised as bankrupt by the world and treated as such, would be hard pressed supplying its overseas bases. There's not much you can do if your cash and credit are worthless. Coercion requires cash and credit. It would be Game Over.

The only way the US could pose a threat is if the collapse were to be incomplete. If, somehow, the markets and the dollar continued in their present form even under conditions of acute resource shortage and financial turmoil elsewhere.

[Derick]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scactha', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')
Yeah, when it comes to repaying our "debts" (which is a form of slavery) and the American people are not obligated whatsoever to ever pay back money that has been borrowed by any foreigner, yeah, it won't be too nice for them, but we have our own butts to cover. If that sounds unfair, well, I'm not gonna shed any tears for the Chinese - are you? I say, it's too frickin' damn bad....LOL.

[Scactha]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')o, we won't go to war over something as silly as that. When the Chinese come to us and say "pay up," we'll pay up alright, with shiploads of freshly printed notes with Benjamin Franklin on them...bwawawawaa!!! Yes, it's that simple.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'Y')ou lot are all hemispherist. There is a southern half to the planet as well. What to you see happening for S America and Australia?

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '
')Or, when the time comes, you will be invaded. For those massive amounts of resources, do you have the infrastructure to make use of them? Does Australia have nukes?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', 'B')ut yes, your point is one of the reasons I'm in favour of Australia developing its (civil) nuclear industry. It's untenable for a country of 20 million people with a land area the size of the European Union or the continental United States to sit on a third of the world's uranium and piously proclaim 'It's not our policy to develop this resource'.

[Tyler_JC]

China has a huge demographic crisis waiting in the wings. Sure, their economy is growing dramatically right now. And why shouldn't it be? The bulk of their population are young/middle-aged adults. (20-40 year olds). The "Great" Leap Forward weeded out the would-be elderly and the One Child Policy kept the number of youngsters in check.

Lots of young workers producing and very few people consuming resources on either end of the curve (children and senior citizens). So naturally they have a large production surplus that translates into a large trade surplus.

http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2006/01/china-population-iii-scar-of-great.html

But a couple decades down the line, the massive surplus of working age people will vanish and be replaced by a massive surplus of dependents. By mid century, China will be too busy caring for its dependents to take over the world. Or it will be full of graveyards. Either way, it's not looking good for the "Chinese Century".

[web]http://www.china-europe-usa.com/level_4_data/hum/011_7a.htm[/web]

Just something to think about.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', 'B')ut yes, your point is one of the reasons I'm in favour of Australia developing its (civil) nuclear industry. It's untenable for a country of 20 million people with a land area the size of the European Union or the continental United States to sit on a third of the world's uranium and piously proclaim 'It's not our policy to develop this resource'.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', 'I')'m in two minds about nuclear. On the assumption that the uranium and thorium fuel cycles mean nuclear fuel is plentiful (for the time being, at least), and that we're going to be paying more for energy no matter what we do, it makes a certain amount of sense.

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', 'B')ut yes, your point is one of the reasons I'm in favour of Australia developing its (civil) nuclear industry. It's untenable for a country of 20 million people with a land area the size of the European Union or the continental United States to sit on a third of the world's uranium and piously proclaim 'It's not our policy to develop this resource'.