[kmann]

Interesting. I just did a quick search and couldn't find a link to this particular bit of work. If you could provide a link to it, I would much appreciate it.

edit:
are you refering to this article in the Energy Journal?
Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants, by Robert K. Kaufmann and Cutler J. Cleveland, 22(1) 2001, 27-50
Energy Journal wants 20 bucks for it, can I get it free somewhere?

[shortonoil]

kmann said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nteresting. I just did a quick search and couldn't find a link to this particular bit of work. If you could provide a link to it, I would much appreciate it.

[shortonoil]

PS $20 dollars, that's outrageous. I'll post some links, check back in a few days.

[Tanada]

Mostly sensible stuff and mostly ignored at todays prices. How high must they go before people start following any of these guidlines?

[IslandCrow]

Any other links to this report? I followed the link and just got:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')orbidden
You do not have permission to access this document.

[dinopello]

Link to report

Note this is a 2005 publication, although timeless advice I'm sure.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's leading energy watchdog has warned of a looming global gas shortage unless more money is poured into investment.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said the fuel would take a more dominant role over the next decade and supply must be expanded to match it. It said that while consuming countries could consider building up emergency stocks, this would not be "a silver bullet".

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's leading energy watchdog has warned of a looming global gas shortage unless more money is poured into investment.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said the fuel would take a more dominant role over the next decade and supply must be expanded to match it. It said that while consuming countries could consider building up emergency stocks, this would not be "a silver bullet".

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's leading energy watchdog has warned of a looming global gas shortage unless more money is poured into investment.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said the fuel would take a more dominant role over the next decade and supply must be expanded to match it. It said that while consuming countries could consider building up emergency stocks, this would not be "a silver bullet".

[mididoctors]

mitigation=power-down

increased investment in gas production means increased rate of depletion.

still not the right message

Boris
London

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'm')itigation=power-down

increased investment in gas production means increased rate of depletion.

still not the right message

Boris
London

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'I')t's a hard thing to wrap your mind around at first, but high prices are good. They are a blunt instrument like all "market Solutions," but there you go. Many things will be topsy turvey on the down dise of the curve.

[DantesPeak]

See rapid draw down in world oil supplies continuing.

Keep in mind that the IEA also sees demand increasing in the fourth quarter about 3 million bpd over the first quarter.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA trims 2007 oil demand forecast slightly but warns mkt is tightening UPDATE
05.11.07, 6:46 AM ET

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The International Energy Agency lowered its 2007 oil product demand forecast marginally but warned the global oil market is tightening and said the situation will not improve unless OPEC ups its output before the summer.

'While the optimist can point to the glass being half-full this report anticipates a thirsty market in the months ahead,' said the Paris-based energy watchdog.

The agency said while total stocks in industrialised countries of the OECD region are in the upper portion of the 5 year range, preliminary data still points to a 930,000 bpd drop in stocks in the first quarter.

It added that there is little doubt this figure is 'dramatic' especially as it follows hot on the heels of a 890,000 bpd draw in the fourth quarter of last year.

Turning to gasoline, which is in focus at present as the market moves into the peak demand summer season, the agency noted OECD stocks are tight while US stocks are at their lowest level in 16 years in terms of forward demand cover.

The US gasoline market has recently been hit by a high level of refinery outages, which have limited capacity which was already constrained by seasonal maintenance shutdowns.

[newman1979]

It is amazing to ask OPEC to ship more at these prices to allow for inventory increases. The price of oil needs to be at $70 and kept at $70 to $80 get OPEC to ship more. The days of NY controlling oil prices are over. The oil traders have favored the consumer countries at the expense of producers for too long. The Brent price is used for around 60% of oil that is exported and is rising. The oil traders have wrecked the US oil market with recurrent manipulation and governmental interference. Producers, with costs of exploration, production and equipment exploding, have little choice in withholding investment until commitments are made at a much higher price. Inflation in the oil industry is at hyperinflation levels and shows no sign of slowing down.
Ironically the 4th quarter 06 drop to influence the election was the death kneel of New York oil traders controlling the oil market. Another example of small minds in action.
OPEC's counter measures were necessary, and with Russia now a co-swing producer, OPEC's entanglement with the West is on a more bussiness to bussiness basis. Perhaps the Dubai oil bourse set for a June opening will cause heads to turn.

[DantesPeak]

There’s more. The IEA says that refinery demand will pick up considerably by summer, but the most important news is that OPEC will be called upon to provide 2.3 million bpd more by the fourth quarter to meet demand and shortfalls elsewhere in world oil output.

In addition, the output of Nigeria is lower than generally thought, which is possibly contributing to a plateau in all liquids production. For newcomers, “all liquids” includes in addition to crude oil, condensates, and all biofuels (such as ethanol). This implies that we are on some kind of downturn in oil production, since biofuel production is going up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ighlights of the latest OMR
dated: 11 May 2007


Nigerian crude capacity shut-ins rose to 815 kb/d in early May, adding to pressures caused by a gasoline market already tightened by an unusually high level of unplanned refinery outages. Unsurprisingly, gasoline remains the primary driver behind oil prices, with cracks and US retail prices reaching levels not seen since the post‑Hurricane Katrina spike in September 2005.

Seasonal refinery maintenance and a spate of unplanned outages is expected to depress global throughputs. This implies, with demand increasing in June, that there will be a further tightening of product stocks. Refinery runs, and therefore crude demand, should rise sharply in July (2.5 mb/d over March) as refiners seek to meet peak summer demand.

Preliminary OECD stock data continue to point to a 930 kb/d draw in first-quarter total oil stocks, following on from a draw of similar magnitude in the previous quarter. Forward demand cover provided by total oil inventories remains around the five-year average, but gasoline stocks are low in all regions.

Global oil product demand has been revised down to 84.3 mb/d in 2006 and 85.8 mb/d in 2007. For 2006 this is mainly related to improved data in non-OECD countries. Demand in the OECD remained largely unchanged, as a cold snap in North America was offset by milder temperatures in Europe and the Pacific.

April world oil output rose by 55 kb/d to 85.5 mb/d, with OPEC supply levelling off near 30.3 mb/d. Non-OPEC growth in 2007 is trimmed to 1.0 mb/d, plus 0.2 mb/d of OPEC NGLs, which leaves the 2.3 mb/d rise in the ‘call on OPEC’ by 4Q running well ahead of expected OPEC capacity additions. This implies lower spare capacity later in the year.

Global oil product demand is revised down marginally to 84.2 mb/d in 2006 and 85.7 mb/d in 2007 following adjustments to baseline historical data. Changes are centred in the Middle East, but Chinese demand has also been revised down, despite strong 1Q growth.

[DantesPeak]

Newman1979 – well put. In addition, to the admission by the Department of Energy to use the SPR to manipulate oil prices, we have noticed Far East countries such as Japan setting up special contracts and other arrangements. For example, having Saudi Arabia store its oil in Japan. This appears to reduce the likelihood that it would be available to the US in the event of an emergency, although it may be potentially beneficial to the West Coats of the US.

[cat]

Please forgive me - I am still trying to wrap my brain around all of this. But, from what I understand the current run up in gasoline prices is due to refinery issues, they can't refine it fast enough. So, if that is so, why is the IEA worried about enough crude if the refieries cannot handle it? And, how could refinery demand pick up by summer if it is already running at full capacity?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cat', 'P')lease forgive me - I am still trying to wrap my brain around all of this. But, from what I understand the current run up in gasoline prices is due to refinery issues, they can't refine it fast enough. So, if that is so, why is the IEA worried about enough crude if the refieries cannot handle it? And, how could refinery demand pick up by summer if it is already running at full capacity?

[cat]

So, possibly the IEA believes that the refinery issues will be solved and thus, due to increasing demand worldwide crude oil output will be too low, thus causing problems. At the same time OPEC seems to believe that there is no issue, and is even thinking about reducing output, but certainly not increasing it between now and when they meet again in September. Why such a different outlook on things? It will be interesting to see what happens here. Is it possible that OPEC is kind of testing the price, to see how high they can keep the price up before demand decreases? Or maybe they simply cannot increase capacity right now. Anyway it is all very intriguing - thanks for your reply DantesPeak

[Newsseeker]

The thirst will increase soon! Prepare to be parched.