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Reasons to be optimistic

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby Ayame » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 18:09:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')stream]http://www.peakoil.com/sample/apoc3.wav [/stream]


Horror and mortal terror are your friends.
what what?
or is it moral terror?
Either way I guess you're right.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 18:37:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')If they successfully rationed bacon, rubber, and stopped making cars in WWII, do you think it matters what those 3 billion aspiring First Worlders want?

Given that the price of oil is set on world markets, I'd say the aspirations of those 3 billion people have a dramatic influence on the world's energy future.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, you can't compare 1945 to today because the situation was far, far more dire back then. Right now we've got peace, time, and resources beyond the dreams of previous generations.

Peace? For how long? Have you been paying attention? Resource wars are all the rage.

Time? Time to shift to alternative energy platforms without massive social dislocation? Have you read the Hirsch report?

Resources? What newly abundant resources are you referring to?
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby KingM » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 18:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '
')Given that the price of oil is set on world markets, I'd say the aspirations of those 3 billion people have a dramatic influence on the world's energy future.


Exactly. I guarantee I can afford more gasoline than the average taxi driver in Guatemala City or Manila. Americans, Europeans, and Japanese will still have cars long after they stop selling the things in Kenya.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]No, you can't compare 1945 to today because the situation was far, far more dire back then. Right now we've got peace, time, and resources beyond the dreams of previous generations.
Peace? For how long? Have you been paying attention? Resource wars are all the rage.


You think this is a time of war?! God, this is the most peaceful time in human history.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esources? What newly abundant resources are you referring to?


In 2006 we produced 85.2 million barrels per day, plus tens of millions more in equivalent energy from nuclear, coal, hydro, etc.. This is more energy than used by humans ever. We probably used as much in the last ten years as in the entire 19th Century, when they successfully built tens of thousands of miles of rail and canals. If they could do it then with less than a tenth of the energy, surely we can do similar things now.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 20:41:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')f they successfully rationed bacon, rubber, and stopped making cars in WWII, do you think it matters what those 3 billion aspiring First Worlders want?

It does if they come this way, or cut off supply.

That stuff you list was shipped from those parts. Europe was at war, but its empires continued to function and subsidise the population and the war. The US was another important source completely free of disruption. Economically, WW2 disrupted little outside of Europe and the Far East. Everything else carried on.

We're going to be in a world of pain when the West's economic empire overseas crumbles as a result of the same fundamentals. We're also going to be dealing with a lot more angry people.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')hat's more, it won't be the US, Europe, and Japan that get priced out of the market first, it will be South Americans, Africans, etc.

No, you can't compare 1945 to today because the situation was far, far more dire back then. Right now we've got peace, time, and resources beyond the dreams of previous generations.

When four out of six inhabited continents are priced out of possessing a functioning economy at a time of record overpopulation, it won't matter what resources are available. There are too many people for those resources to support. The resources available are enough to give everyone on Earth the quality of life of someone average in present-day India. Continued prosperity in the West would depend on maintaining resource inflows into North America and Europe while ensuring rapidly declining consumption everywhere else.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby KingM » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 21:13:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')When four out of six inhabited continents are priced out of possessing a functioning economy at a time of record overpopulation, it won't matter what resources are available. There are too many people for those resources to support. The resources available are enough to give everyone on Earth the quality of life of someone average in present-day India. Continued prosperity in the West would depend on maintaining resource inflows into North America and Europe while ensuring rapidly declining consumption everywhere else.


You don't understand the way the world works. Ireland was a net food exporter during the potato famine. The resources will keep flowing into the First World long after people are starving in the Third.

But it won't get to that point. There is more than enough energy to make the transition to a post oil world. We'd be halfway there already if we'd spent the money wasted in Iraq on rebuilding the rail network and building a new set of nuclear plants, plus more solar, wind, etc.

There are far, FAR more available resources than the doomers around here realize. We could reduce 90% of consumer energy consumption and still not reach the austerity of the average Depression era American. There is more than enough energy and wealth out there to transition to a post-PO world. It would be almost painless if we started now. If we wait until the crisis--which is sadly, likely--we can still do it with half the oil we're currently burning.

Look at the accomplishments of the past 200 years: the canals and railroads, the telegraph, the settling of the West, the great towers, monuments, and such of the Victorian Era, and tell me we couldn't do the same with a vastly greater infrastructure and more energy and machinery than the diggers of the Panama Canal could even dream of. We have more coal, oil, technology, education, and practically everything else than they had. Surely, we can accomplish what they did, especially if our backs are to the walls.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 21:34:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'Y')ou don't understand the way the world works. Ireland was a net food exporter during the potato famine. The resources will keep flowing into the First World long after people are starving in the Third.

Actually I know all about that bit, cheers kthx. My post did after all describe that very scenario. Hell, it's happening today.

I'll believe there's a recovery on the way when I see some signs of it.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 22:25:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')
Exactly. I guarantee I can afford more gasoline than the average taxi driver in Guatemala City or Manila. Americans, Europeans, and Japanese will still have cars long after they stop selling the things in Kenya.

True, the rot will not set in equally, and some people will suffer more than others. Perhaps resource-rich countries will decide that it is no longer in their interests to exchange their natural wealth for increasingly worthless US dollars. Perhaps this will invite a military response. Not exactly an optimistic scenario, though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You think this is a time of war?! God, this is the most peaceful time in human history.

(a) depends on where you are living, and (b) watch this space!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In 2006 we produced 85.2 million barrels per day, plus tens of millions more in equivalent energy from nuclear, coal, hydro, etc.. This is more energy than used by humans ever. We probably used as much in the last ten years as in the entire 19th Century, when they successfully built tens of thousands of miles of rail and canals. If they could do it then with less than a tenth of the energy, surely we can do similar things now.

There is much scope for mitigation of the consequences. But in attempting to switch to an alternative energy infrastructure, we are likely to be doing so against a backdrop of steadily declining fossil fuel availability, increasing population, and human habitat destruction. Add to this the inevitable increase in human conflict, both between countries, and between social classes within countries, as people's understanding of the causes of the problem drags in tandem with their ability to cope with the consequences, and IMO you don't have a particularly positive outlook.

Twilight's point about the enormous economic interdependence that is threatened by resource depletion, is a salient one. The West has built its economic power by exploitation of resources from its empires, the New World, and later, the modern-day developing world. Trade will almost certainly diminish as transportation fuels become more expensive. Standards of living will drop, but will people be agreeable to this, or will they instead seek out scapegoats?
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 22:40:50

look this is my dirty little secret...

but sometimes when no one's home I enjoy seperating m&m's into color groups and pretending they're little villages of people with their own economic and social problems, and then I try to fix them through free trade agreements and other diplomatic measures.
(no crazy)
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby thuja » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 23:30:40

No as KingM says- there is no problem- we have abundant resources- we'll be fine for ages. IN fact we're doing great right now. Oh- but don't talk about the folks dealing with resource wars and scarcity issues in places like

Iraq, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Ukraine, North Korea, Indonesia, large parts of China and India, etc etc.

Nothing to see there folks...Move along...just pay attention to the white folks...
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 00:24:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'N')ow what Is that suppose to mean Ludi?

I do not want to give the masses an excuse.
"See they are tree huggers with an agenda".
Surely they will find excuses anyways but giving it to them....

Like I said, many of us may be greens yet that is not the primary reason we are here spending time attempting to educate...is it?



What I mean is, Monte has been discussing for YEARS how the only appropriate response to peak oil is to powerdown and devise a new way of life based on the Earth's life systems. What else would we be trying to "educate" people about - how to devise a technofix? As far as I can tell, the only reasonable response is to realise our way of life is going extinct and we must find another way, a way that works. And I agree with Monte that way must be based on observation of and working with the Earth's life systems and current solar input.


I guess I can only speak for myself. My sole reason for being here anymore is to try to help educate people about other, appropriate ways to live. If I'm not doing that, then I'm wasting my time. Enough people have thanked me for the info I've provided to prove to me that I'm not wasting my time here, but am actually helping to some small degree.


Anyway, that's what I meant, that I agree with Monte's "agenda" as I understand it. If I'm wrong, he can correct me.


Its np, if that be the case then MQ hides it well and I think thats a good thing as these people are looking for any reason to cry foul.
So if you really want them to not doubt your Sincerity do not give them any freebie reasons to do so.
I aint saying that the messenger is the message but I will say that to the sheeple that certainly seems to be the case.
That looks like a pretty book, how much? :)

When I first showed people PO and we got to Matts page imagine how many scrolled down and looked at what he was selling and basically ended it right there.
I was thinking "are all of my friends and relatives really humans?" :lol: Am I alone when I get that A.I. feelin' sometimes? freaky I say...

You must know what I am talking about...
As far as other reasons to remain here....Other people say it better then I do...

Why I Am Opposed to the War in Vietnam

We align more then this thread may indicate yet it is our lot to notice the difference rather then the simularity.
TY for caring enough to clarify and hopefully I have clarified abit as well.
I knew I liked more about you then the straw hat and pitch fork :)

When presenting new subject matter to unsuspecting sheeple agenda's are better kept hidden indefinately... thus spoke neopo.
is this deceit? if it is then I guess I am a bad person.
Wont they come to these conclusions on their own and isnt that better?

Damn thats confusing!
Like with my children - if they ask I must say something but I dont say die off even though I may believe that.
Like I want people thinkin' I am crazier then I already am hah hah! yeah really get the message in the kool aid bottle over well that way friend :lol:

what was this thread about?
I am having too much fun.
Ok yeah, if we have an open invasion of optomistic satanic trekkie cultists then this place will lose its edge.
<puts his red hooded PO robe back on and begins to chant jingle bells in german>

Look - I know people who know people who know people who know peak oil and these people look at those other people and see them doing nothing who were watching the other people doing nothing so everybody is cool doing nothing because they think I have some sort of agenda!
This is not my design - just an observation of one.
Its a herd mentality is what I am sayin - start treehuggin in public, they are gonna think we are a bunch of sissy freaks and probably try to kick our asses :roll:

If we are gonna do agendas then I say we get sophisticated and hit em with the stick of many sharp pointy things +5 which is ANTI WAR, ENVIRONMENT, 9.11, HUMAN RIGHTS etc etc.

Oh shit we already do all that dont we?
Scratch all that - love ya - group hug? :roll:
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby 128shot » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:10:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'D')o we have anyone thats actually been here for years that is still an optimist? Most of them eventually read enough to realize we're screwed and then can put the pieces together to see just how screwed we are.

Optimists are just doomers that haven't figured it out yet.


or they are happy about the fact..
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:28:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', ' ')Anyway, I would just like to share with you some positive news related to peak oil. First, this week and for the first time, wind turbines were the number one source of power in Spain, providing 27% of power to the grid. Wow. This is not a tiny country with 10 people and a goat. We're talking about an industrialised european nation with 44 million people. Second, Spain's neighbour Portugal has realistic goals of having 45% of all its power come from renewable sources in just three years time.



Peak oil is a global problem, not just a country or region problem. This is good for Spain, but what of the rest of the world?

Even with these massive growth rates, renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, geo thermal and biofuels contribute just 2% of the world's primary energy with wind/solar less than 1%. An almost inconsequential contribution, given the twilight of the oil age on the near horizon.

Peakoil and the Growth of Renewable Energy
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:39:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Coolman', ' ')the human population will probably be much lower in 2100.

Compared to what? Human population will start to decline PO or not PO after 2050 ...


Only if the standard of living in the developing countries continues to rise as it has over the last forty years.

That is what these projections are based upon by the UN.

How likely is it that the world standard of living will continue to rise as it has under the regime of cheap, readiliy available fossil fuels when we are in terminal decline?

I find that reality highly unlikely.

We may even see a rise in population growth for a short period, as more hands are needed to work or grow food. That is what history tells us.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')What I mean is, Monte has been discussing for YEARS how the only appropriate response to peak oil is to powerdown and devise a new way of life based on the Earth's life systems.

Anyway, that's what I meant, that I agree with Monte's "agenda" as I understand it. If I'm wrong, he can correct me.


No, you are quite correct. :)
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:53:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')What I mean is, Monte has been discussing for YEARS how the only appropriate response to peak oil is to powerdown and devise a new way of life based on the Earth's life systems... As far as I can tell, the only reasonable response is to realise our way of life is going extinct and we must find another way, a way that works.


This is what you want to happen. That doesn't mean it will. If the future were obvious, everyone would buy into your vision..


No, that is what will happen, by design or by default. Ecological reality is quite obvious to those who understand Liebig's Law, ecological sinks, and carrying capacity.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 02:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')here are far, FAR more available resources than the doomers around here realize. We could reduce 90% of consumer energy consumption and still not reach the austerity of the average Depression era American.


Energy consumption and GDP growth are entwined.

Cut 90% of energy consumption?

Cut sales across the board?

Who absorbs the loss in revenues and whose job or business gets to go south?

Wasted energy or superfluous consumption employs just as many as essential consumption, if not more.

What will these people do for a living?

We can't re-employ them doing essential jobs, as we needed their energy to allow supply to meet demand.

Build renewables and infrastructure?

With what energy?

From where?

We have no new supply in a terminal oil decline.

Renewables, while under construction, and during their pay back period, will be new energy consumers.

The only available source of readily available energy is the standard of living...and people will not easily give that up so we can spend years and decades using it to build new future sources of power.

There will be a fight.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby NEOPO » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 02:58:27

<is trying to pay attention to the white folks> :lol:

What? my "wether to agenda or not to agenda" gets no direct response? 8)

Please honor me with your thoughts on this as I have never really picked up on any particular bias or agenda of yours at least not while you were delivering the PO message and perhaps that is why the message was so effective.

I didnt get here until my born on date so maybe thats why I didnt catch on?

Anyways what do you think about that?
Open agendas are okay or no?

I am a bit torn really as I feel so much ties into peak oil its amazing so if we were to really be open about our motivations then I would think we could easily have multiple agendas as many of us do.

Heck should we even use the term agenda? as this world has had its way with it much like the term conspiracy.
Not the beginning of an argument - just very curious.
Now watch him whop out a link to a 100 page thread that he started back in 1999 all about how to most effectively deliver the PO message!
You know thats funny!! and funnier still if he actually does it so its a win win kids! :-D
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 09:19:03

Confucius say, "Massive amounts of alcohol consumed within a short period of time make future bright." It is best to do this at a friend's house so 1) you don't get cut off by the bar tender and then get depressed about the future again and 2) your friend has to clean up. When he or she is done get the cans if they can be recycled so the next time you have to do this to put a smiley face on world events it doesn't cost you as much.

I started out as a cornucopian but became a doomer when confronted with the reality of the situation. I am 29 and I know that when I am 39 this debate will no longer be taking place and it will be a miracle if I have a job and my own place. Once the 3% decline (this is rosy) starts many people are going to hurt.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby abelardlindsay » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 12:02:17

The reason I'm optimistic for the U.S -- at least compared to the rest of the world:

1. We're the third largest oil producer.
2. We have more coal than any other country.
3. If we were as energy efficient as Europe we'd be exporting oil.
4. We have lots of weapons with which to execute the neo-con last man standing scenario (as we are doing in Iraq).
5. Canadians with tar sands.

If I put on my tinfoil hat for a moment -- and assume everything Aaron Russo and Mike Ruppert have said is true -- peak oil is being ignored and ethanol is being pushed in order to purposefully cause a widespread famine to reduce the earth's population drastically, primarily outside the United States.
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Re: Reasons to be optimistic

Unread postby malcomatic_51 » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 12:46:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', '.')....peak oil is being ignored and ethanol is being pushed in order to purposefully cause a widespread famine to reduce the earth's population drastically, primarily outside the United States.


If genocide is your aim, famine is a hard method to beat. It is non-contagious yet can kill unlimited numbers, it is not labour-intensive, and being undramatic it can be ignored. If your society is composed of scared hypocrites, 99% will look the other way and the 1% that don't can be ignored or at worst granted indulgence to play at saving the world with various charity events that make them look good.

Starvation is already a major cause of death. The figure I have Googled is 16.5 million deaths per year. This is attributed to the CDC Atlanta as a source. If true, that accounts for almost a third of all deaths annually. Well it's an awful lot, but I wouldn't say starvation has much profile in the media. I suppose it's like road deaths - steady, no one likes it, the solution would piss off too many people, so little is done.
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