[cultural_sublimation]

I have started lurking through this forum some time ago, but this is my first post. Though I am obviously concerned about Peak Oil, I cannot help but to notice that a lot of people here have a strange fascination with doom. What's up with that?

Seriously, though people should be worried about the issue and perhaps even a tiny bit scared, always talking about the end of the world will only get us labelled as lunatics. Why can't a community like this one focus a bit more on the positive news about energy? Yes, I know there are also some of those, but isn't it funny that the gloomier threads always get more posts, and that the optimists are often labelled as cornucopian? (there is a difference!)

Anyway, I would just like to share with you some positive news related to peak oil. First, this week and for the first time, wind turbines were the number one source of power in Spain, providing 27% of power to the grid. Wow. This is not a tiny country with 10 people and a goat. We're talking about an industrialised european nation with 44 million people. Second, Spain's neighbour Portugal has realistic goals of having 45% of all its power come from renewable sources in just three years time.

Will peak oil hurt? Certainly. But more and more I am convinced that we can be moderately optimistic about the future. If instead of doom you are looking for moderately optimistic, yet still realistic, predictions about the post-peak future, they are also out there. It just seems many among us have a tendency to block them out and prefer to read about the soon to come apocalypse. (Quick test if you're a doomer: which of the two links in this paragraph are you more inclined to click instinctively?)

[auscanman]

It certainly won't be the case that 5/6 of the world's population will die in a short space of time. However, I have no doubt that 100 years from now the human population wil be 1 billion or less.

I think you don't understand the immensity of the problem we face. The economic system now present almost everywhere is predicated upon infinite growth and assumes a never-ending supply of resources. It's a system that overwhelmingly suits the top 5% or so of the population, who will fight tooth and nail to stop any paradigm change (even if it means a large scale die-off of poorer individuals) to a different economic model.

The renewable power being added in Europe is only possible right now because we still have plentiful oil supplies, which those countries are wisely putting to use in making these renewable sources. What would the effect be if every country started doing this? Price of oil would initially skyrocket as oil was diverted from fuel use to manufacture of this renewable infrastructure. Once the infrastructure was built, people would still need to fuel their cars, and if the price of oil were to decrease, they'd just drive more!

I don't dwell on this or let it ruin my life, and am positive in my daily life. But, I think it's delusional to believe that we have a great future ahead of us.

[Olle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', 'I') have started lurking through this forum some time ago, but this is my first post. Though I am obviously concerned about Peak Oil, I cannot help but to notice that a lot of people here have a strange fascination with doom. What's up with that?

Seriously, though people should be worried about the issue and perhaps even a tiny bit scared, always talking about the end of the world will only get us labelled as lunatics. Why can't a community like this one focus a bit more on the positive news about energy? Yes, I know there are also some of those, but isn't it funny that the gloomier threads always get more posts, and that the optimists are often labelled as cornucopian? (there is a difference!)

Anyway, I would just like to share with you some positive news related to peak oil. First, this week and for the first time, wind turbines were the number one source of power in Spain, providing 27% of power to the grid. Wow. This is not a tiny country with 10 people and a goat. We're talking about an industrialised european nation with 44 million people. Second, Spain's neighbour Portugal has realistic goals of having 45% of all its power come from renewable sources in just three years time.

Will peak oil hurt? Certainly. But more and more I am convinced that we can be moderately optimistic about the future. If instead of doom you are looking for moderately optimistic, yet still realistic, predictions about the post-peak future, they are also out there. It just seems many among us have a tendency to block them out and prefer to read about the soon to come apocalypse. (Quick test if you're a doomer: which of the two links in this paragraph are you more inclined to click instinctively?)

[Armageddon]

Well, here is the problem. The US economy is based on consumption and transportation. 2/3 of all the oil used by the US goes to transportation. The US has built a lifestyle called suburbia, and is dependant solely on cheap and abundant energy, and continued growth of this cheap and abundant energy. You cannot compare other countries to the US when talking about energy. It is way too late in the game to start changing now. If the US would have built their infrastructure to be more sustainable, such as public transportation, electric cars, hybrids, etc, when the oil was cheap and abundant, then there would be hope ( sorta ) . But, the US now has 300 million people and uses 21 mbpd of the world's 84-85 mbpd, and peak oil is upon us. Plus, the economy is a whole separate and intertwined issue. The US economy has to grow to stay afloat, and without growth it would collapse due to the fiat money system is uses. And, you cannot grow the economy without growing your energy supply. Throw in the amount of debt the average American has, and he will not be able to keep borrowing to keep this thing afloat like previously, and this is why I am a doomer.

[idomar]

I like a bit of doomerism, it makes things interesting. If you are prepared for the worst and you are only met with 50% of what you expected, you are a winner, or in real terms, you havent lost as much as you thought you would.

I think that Europe will not fall as far or as hard as the USA by virtue of location, we are attached to Russia, not to far from ME there are pipelines all over the place ferrying oil from there to here. Europe is investing more in alternatives, not enough in my opinion, but its a start.

Others have predicited what will happen from apocalypse to mild slide into a friendlier world where everyone is nice to each other again in a shared suffering, World War II spirit kinda thing. I tend to err on the side of caution. I know what happens when kids have their toys taken from them, tantrums, add guns and poverty to this and it will make for an interesting mix.

I am preparing for a mid ground area. I think that I may learn another language, maybe for a country that has a lot of farmable land and then head for it if things get bad in the UK. Until then I am just sitting back with some popcorn watching things unfold.

[Tinman]

I think that climate change is a bigger concern then peak oil. I don’t have any fantasies of doom I would hope to continue to live this easy life style but I would be willing to live more like my grandparents and great grandparents if that meant a better future for my children and my children’s children.

[eastbay]

Combine what Armageddon said with the fact that the USA has effectively instituted an officially sanctioned open-borders policy allowing 1,000,000 people to enter illegally every year.

Then add to what Armegeddon said above with the fact that these illegal entrants and their offspring will create additional approximately 20,000,000 people in the next 10 years (all of whom wouldn't be here to heighten the scale and scope of the looming disaster if effective border controls were in place) all of whom will be desperately engaged in the final struggle to consume the nations (USA) ever-dwindling energy, food, educational, water, medical, and financial resources.

In my opinion, the ever-popular term 'doomer' falls far short of accurately describing what our appropriate current mood should be. In fact, and I'm certainly NOT a conspiracy buff, but it's starting to appear as though the official policy of the US government is to intentionally create a scenario whereby the coming human suffering and ecological disaster will be as apocalyptic as possible. Nah... the PTB wouldn't do something as completely crazy as that, would they???


.... edit for typo.

[Tinman]

Sure they would look at Iraq.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', 'I') have started lurking through this forum some time ago, but this is my first post. Though I am obviously concerned about Peak Oil, I cannot help but to notice that a lot of people here have a strange fascination with doom. What's up with that?

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')I think it's the optimists that create the doomers.

[dukey]

[Ibon]

A reason to be optimistic is that the exponential growth and consumption of the past 100 years is about to end. The transition toward sustainability will be a mixture of enlightenment and stupidity. Of brilliant innovation and primitive selfishness. It will be a full pallete of everything wonderful and horrible that humans under stress are capable of. Placing yourself somewhere in the middle of optimism and doomerism is probably a safe bet.

[strider3700]

Do we have anyone thats actually been here for years that is still an optimist? Most of them eventually read enough to realize we're screwed and then can put the pieces together to see just how screwed we are.

Optimists are just doomers that haven't figured it out yet.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')n fact, and I'm certainly NOT a conspiracy buff, but it's starting to appear as though the official policy of the US government is to intentionally create a scenario whereby the coming human suffering and ecological disaster will be as apocalyptic as possible. Nah... the PTB wouldn't do something as completely crazy as that, would they

[Coolman]

LOL dukey. I remember that game.

But, seriously don't fool yourself. The modern way of life is screwed. This is not the end of the world, just the end of globalization/ consumerism/ idiotism. But, the road to this new life is not going to be easy, the human population will probably be much lower in 2100. Nature always wins, plan and simple. At least nature is allowing us to live, just not the way 5% of the population lives now.

[Minvaren]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '"')Do not attribute to malice what can be better ascribed to incompetence"

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Minvaren', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '"')Do not attribute to malice what can be better ascribed to incompetence"

[Minvaren]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'N')either can the US.

[Ludi]

I think there are reasons to be optimistic if you're young, healthy, and capable of physical work which might be considered "hard" - there will be plenty of opportunities for a new and good way of life. But if you're old, sick, and/or averse to change, there's not much happy to look forward to.

[Coolman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') think there are reasons to be optimistic if you're young, healthy, and capable of physical work which might be considered "hard" - there will be plenty of opportunities for a new and good way of life. But if you're old, sick, and/or averse to change, there's not much happy to look forward to.