[Temperedoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')emperedoil, humans have always told stories and humans have always had time to listen to them.

[Ludi]

Temperedoil, I work for the film industry also, and expect it to go away, as it is an energy and resource hog, but, fortunately the skills I have learned for making physical objects will still be useful (looking into learning how to make shoes, currently). But, aside from practical skills, puppet shows and stage plays and plain old storytelling will always be popular, I think.

[cultural_sublimation]

I am the starter of this thread. I've resisted the temptation to post comments so far, because I was curious how the discussion would naturally evolve without my interference. I've done a cursory categorisation of all the posts (100 responses so far - thank you guys!), and suffice to say, my initial suspicion -- that a person's perspective on Peak Oil tends to be skewed by their local environment -- has been validated by the response.

Now, it should come as no surprise that the overwhelming majority of the posters fall towards the pessimistic side of the debate. Even those who are not generally pessimistic, tend to be so in regards to the American way of life. And here lies in my opinion the crux of the matter: Peak Oil means very bad news for the US, particularly for the suburbia. I wouldn't be surprised if this were precisely the enviroment where most members of this forum live. Hence their obviously (and in my opinion skewed) pessimistic view on the issue.

I hardly see myself as a cornucopian. However, I live in an environment (yes, I am European) where the switch to renewables is happening at full strength, where cars are optional for the majority of the population, and the climate is gentle enough to allow drastic reductions in the usage of heating fuel during Winter without causing major inconvenience.

And yes, I am aware that everything in our society depends ultimately on oil. Even if us Europeans can live without cars, we won't live without food. And as you all know, modern Agriculture is highly dependent on oil. However, let us keep things in perspective. Imagine that the peak already happen, and that from now on we will see a yearly decline of a couple percent in oil production. Oil used in agriculture would obviously take priority over other uses, giving us plenty of time to make a transition. And don't you think that once the reality of peak oil sinks in, governments will be so incompentent as not to make this sort of planning? Oh yes, again the American bias: your current government might indeed be that incompetent, but that soon (well, 21 months or so) will also change.

To conclude, here's my advice to our friends from the other side of the pond: be optimistic. You might be in for a rough period, but things will eventually get better.

[vision-master]

If the US Controls Middle East oil then the American economy continues,,,,,,,,,,, for how long? That's the million dollar question.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', 'I') am the starter of this thread. I've resisted the temptation to post comments so far, because I was curious how the discussion would naturally evolve without my interference. I've done a cursory categorisation of all the posts (100 responses so far - thank you guys!), and suffice to say, my initial suspicion -- that a person's perspective on Peak Oil tends to be skewed by their local environment -- has been validated by the response.

Now, it should come as no surprise that the overwhelming majority of the posters fall towards the pessimistic side of the debate. Even those who are not generally pessimistic, tend to be so in regards to the American way of life. And here lies in my opinion the crux of the matter: Peak Oil means very bad news for the US, particularly for the suburbia. I wouldn't be surprised if this were precisely the enviroment where most members of this forum live. Hence their obviously (and in my opinion skewed) pessimistic view on the issue.

I hardly see myself as a cornucopian. However, I live in an environment (yes, I am European) where the switch to renewables is happening at full strength, where cars are optional for the majority of the population, and the climate is gentle enough to allow drastic reductions in the usage of heating fuel during Winter without causing major inconvenience.

And yes, I am aware that everything in our society depends ultimately on oil. Even if us Europeans can live without cars, we won't live without food. And as you all know, modern Agriculture is highly dependent on oil. However, let us keep things in perspective. Imagine that the peak already happen, and that from now on we will see a yearly decline of a couple percent in oil production. Oil used in agriculture would obviously take priority over other uses, giving us plenty of time to make a transition. And don't you think that once the reality of peak oil sinks in, governments will be so incompentent as not to make this sort of planning? Oh yes, again the American bias: your current government might indeed be that incompetent, but that soon (well, 21 months or so) will also change.

To conclude, here's my advice to our friends from the other side of the pond: be optimistic. You might be in for a rough period, but things will eventually get better.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', ' ')And don't you think that once the reality of peak oil sinks in, governments will be so incompentent as not to make this sort of planning? Oh yes, again the American bias: your current government might indeed be that incompetent, but that soon (well, 21 months or so) will also change.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', ' ')I wouldn't be surprised if this were precisely the enviroment where most members of this forum live. Hence their obviously (and in my opinion skewed) pessimistic view on the issue.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', 'I') hardly see myself as a cornucopian. However, I live in an environment (yes, I am European) where the switch to renewables is happening at full strength, where cars are optional for the majority of the population, and the climate is gentle enough to allow drastic reductions in the usage of heating fuel during Winter without causing major inconvenience.

And yes, I am aware that everything in our society depends ultimately on oil. Even if us Europeans can live without cars, we won't live without food. And as you all know, modern Agriculture is highly dependent on oil. However, let us keep things in perspective. Imagine that the peak already happen, and that from now on we will see a yearly decline of a couple percent in oil production. Oil used in agriculture would obviously take priority over other uses, giving us plenty of time to make a transition. And don't you think that once the reality of peak oil sinks in, governments will be so incompentent as not to make this sort of planning? Oh yes, again the American bias: your current government might indeed be that incompetent, but that soon (well, 21 months or so) will also change.

To conclude, here's my advice to our friends from the other side of the pond: be optimistic. You might be in for a rough period, but things will eventually get better.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'c')ultural_sublimation you have described your own situation in Europe that promotes optimism.

Many Europeans live somewhat in balance with their environment. As I understand it, the cities are concentrated and surrounded by agriculture and there are vibrant farm and towns economies. The continent is bathed in the warm wet water and air of the Gulf Stream and food grows easily. There is superior rail system

The United States is completely different. It is harsh here. Only California has a climate approximating Europe. The rest of the country is often in drought or freeze for large parts of the year. Most American now live in endless sprawl-zones that are hundreds or thousands of miles from their food and from inexpensive barge or rail transport. There is no place for suburbanites to go without a car. Many are trapped.

We have a very long (relatively) history of cheap oil and very new living arrangements completely dependent on the oil.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Not only is Europe warmer on average than anywhere in the US, it is also much further north. Look at a globe.

[cultural_sublimation]

There have been quite a few topics raised since my last post, some of them questioning the arguments I put forth.
Here's a response to those:

a) On the whole European climate debate: it's interesting to see how the discussion quickly turned on a "European vs American -- which is milder?" argument. Go read my initial post again. I made an absolute statement about climate in Europe, namely that it is very mild. Notice that there is no comparison with climates anywhere else! If in your mind you've read an implicit comparison with climate in America, then that's your problem, not mine.

b) On what it means to be optimistic: some here immediately equate the word "optimistic" with "cornucopian". I honestly think we are in for a rough period. The economy will suffer, and we're likely to experience a recession unlike any since the Great Depression. However, I also think that life as whole will go on, civilisation will prevail, and western societies will bounce back after a not so long period (say, 5 years?). Compare this scenario with the apocalypse any doomer will happily describe to you, and you'll understand why I consider myself an optimist.

c) On the the incompetence of governments: I maintain my position that the perspective of many posters here is skewed by the incompetence of the current US administration. Although I hardly think that European politicians are enlightened individuals, there is still minimum level of competence that one always assumes. Once the reality of Peak Oil reaches the mainstream, be assured that governments will respond appropriately. And though the American mainstream might be currently in "la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you" mode, Yankee ingenuity will eventually prove itself again more than capable.

d) On agriculture: there is a system already in place for the prioritisation of oil usage for agricultural purposes. We Europeans are used to paying the equivalent of some 6.5 USD/gallon for domestic vehicles (a bit more in places like the Netherlands!). The reason for the high price (in American terms) is that petrol is heavily taxed. However, petrol used in agriculture has much lower taxes and is therefore cheaper. If constraints in supply ever reach the point where agricultural production could be affected, all the governments need to do is to further increase the taxes for "normal" petrol, and use the money to subsidise farmer's petrol. The situation might be sorted out without even resorting to rationing.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '=')"pstarr Wrong Jd.

City January Average High Low
-----------------------------------------------------
Amsterdam (Netherlands) 41 34
Athens (Greece) 54 42
Berlin (Germany) 35 26
Madrid (Spain) 50 34
etc. etc.

Chicago 29 13
Boston 36 22
New York City 38 25
Atlanta 33 52

Not only is Europe warmer on average than anywhere in the US, it is also much further north. Look at a globe.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', 'T')here have been quite a few topics raised since my last post, some of them questioning the arguments I put forth.
Here's a response to those:

a) On the whole European climate debate: it's interesting to see how the discussion quickly turned on a "European vs American -- which is milder?" argument. Go read my initial post again. I made an absolute statement about climate in Europe, namely that it is very mild. Notice that there is no comparison with climates anywhere else! If in your mind you've read an implicit comparison with climate in America, then that's your problem, not mine.

b) On what it means to be optimistic: some here immediately equate the word "optimistic" with "cornucopian". I honestly think we are in for a rough period. The economy will suffer, and we're likely to experience a recession unlike any since the Great Depression. However, I also think that life as whole will go on, civilisation will prevail, and western societies will bounce back after a not so long period (say, 5 years?). Compare this scenario with the apocalypse any doomer will happily describe to you, and you'll understand why I consider myself an optimist.

c) On the the incompetence of governments: I maintain my position that the perspective of many posters here is skewed by the incompetence of the current US administration. Although I hardly think that European politicians are enlightened individuals, there is still minimum level of competence that one always assumes. Once the reality of Peak Oil reaches the mainstream, be assured that governments will respond appropriately. And though the American mainstream might be currently in "la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you" mode, Yankee ingenuity will eventually prove itself again more than capable.

d) On agriculture: there is a system already in place for the prioritisation of oil usage for agricultural purposes. We Europeans are used to paying the equivalent of some 6.5 USD/gallon for domestic vehicles (a bit more in places like the Netherlands!). The reason for the high price (in American terms) is that petrol is heavily taxed. However, petrol used in agriculture has much lower taxes and is therefore cheaper. If constraints in supply ever reach the point where agricultural production could be affected, all the governments need to do is to further increase the taxes for "normal" petrol, and use the money to subsidise farmer's petrol. The situation might be sorted out without even resorting to rationing.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cultural_sublimation', ' ')Hence their obviously (and in my opinion skewed) pessimistic view on the issue.

[NEOPO]

Realism indeed.
Its just another level of rationalization.
Gasping for air and grasping for straws so blame amerocentricism!

Some of the more patient Peakers tried to explain basic conspiracy theory to me like an "onion that has many skins" and like many things I didnt quite get it at first yet after a while it started making more and more sense.
I now also see the human psyche like an onion with many protective layers or "skins".
Understanding the concept of PO peels but one layer away with many more to go.

Monte is absolutely correct and not self serving in the least by suggesting that people need to read his more thorough posts as few have written so much so well concerning PO.

I retain fond memories of being pissed at him or some other worthy messenger only to realize later that I was still in denial and trying to rationalize it all away.

I am optomistic that me and mine will make it to sustainability and survive the worse of the ramifications post peak yet for the majority I share no such warm fuzzy feelings about the future.
"God says he can get me out of this mess but that he is pretty sure you are fooked"

[Aaron]

[Snowstorm]

What is more favorable in many ways about Europe's climate than Americas is it's less variable, most of the US is much more drought-prone and prone to wild swings in weather than Europe. Being in Minnesota, the calling the European cities jdmartin posted about as a frozen hellhole makes me laugh, Minnesota is colder in the winter than all of them. The big difference between our climates is the wilder more extreme and variable weather in America with the exception of the west coast. For example, southern Minnesota while colder than all jdmartin's list of European cities in the winter I'm pretty sure is hotter than all of them in the summer. Just on Monday it was 80 degrees here but they're saying possible snow next week, and a few years ago it was over 90 in mid April and then 6 inches of snow a week later. And even though many areas of America are wetter than Europe in total rain, it is generally more variable with frequent dry spells and the hotter weather evaporates it more quickly, and then deluges and flooding at other times. Despite the fact that much of Europe isn't exactly warm in the winter, I would consider it in general a more favorable climate in many ways, and if you consider all the seasons, more mild than America. That doesn't mean it doesn't have plenty of it's own issues obviously, such as higher population density and whole countries prone to inundation by global warming.

[Ibon]

I have to agree with Cultural Sublimation on the point where many AMericans can be skewed toward pessimism about peak oil due to the uniquely AMerican reality concerning this issue; An infrastructure wholey dependent on the automobile, scale of oil consumption and dependence on oil imports, dependence on foreign money to finance our way of life, and currently dependent on the most incompetant and corrupt government in recent history for initiating macro solutions similar for example to what you can see Europe starting. I frequently move in and out of the US and I can confirm from first hand experience that there is a cloud of unease collectively in America, a contraction and sense that things are not going well. Many peak oil aware individuals will certainly look at the issues through this prism of this collective funk so to speak and see a more hopeless future. I see myself more pessimistic in my views when I am in the US vs. when I am in foreign countries. I have often wondered about this.

Having said that though when Cultural sublimation comments on a 5 year recovery of peak oil for Europe he either clearly does not yet fully understand the full implications of peak oil or he may be overly confident on the European solutions to date which are tiny germinating seeds and hardly represent a paradigm shift toward sustainability. Some of the seeds have become seedlings like the growing wind and solar infrastructure as well as a population better educated toward conservation but these are hardly representing a percentage that can mitigate the effects of peak oil when you fully understand the scale of consumption and degree to which this will play havoc on the global economic system of which Europe is a very integral part. Most European companies have exports that far exceed their domestic markets. A peak oil induced recession will create massive unemployment for Europe along with other continents and Europes social services although the envy of many AMericans, will be put under enormous pressure. THey are already squeezing state budgets to limits during what is currently an affluent period.

This will be a lot longer ride than 5 years!