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Fact-filled video on Exponential Growth

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Fact-filled video on Exponential Growth

Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Sat 18 Dec 2004, 21:09:39

Streaming video


Download

This is a lecture on the consequences of exponential growth with regard to hydrocarbon use and population. A virtuoso performance. I have returned to the pessimistic camp.

Dieoff.
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Unread postby skiwi » Sat 18 Dec 2004, 22:10:26

Lousy network connection keeps timing out even with my highspeed cable
What am I missing. Is it similar to this doco I watched recently

Arithmetic, Population & Energy (Environmental Damage, Energy Crisis) (Dr. Albert A. Bartlett lecture) (1994) (V).avi

The Hubbert's Peak page has a good section on him and his papers

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/
  
"Over the years, few people have contributed as much to physics education as Albert Bartlett [Professor Emeritus, Physics Department, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO]. Readers of The Physics Teacher regularly use snippets from his "et cetera..." column in their classes, and his celebrated lecture on exponential growth has fascinated well over 1000 audiences.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 18 Dec 2004, 22:32:52

Yes, this is the same lecture Arithmetic, Population & Energy by Albert Bartlett. I was able to watch the whole thing although the picture quality got worse as time went on. Very good explanation of exponential growth with the math to go with it.

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Unread postby khebab » Sun 19 Dec 2004, 12:16:41

Very good stuff! should be part of the "PO for dummies" kit.
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Unread postby Agren » Sun 19 Dec 2004, 16:44:47

I'll add it to the PO primer, I'll have to take your word for it at the moment, I can't see the video myself, getting network probs every time I try :x
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interesting

Unread postby Cool Hand Linc » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 03:37:43

This was very interesting. Lots to think about.
Peace out!

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Unread postby Agren » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 03:56:33

Still can't see it :x

If anyone finds another source for the video, plese post it.
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Unread postby 0mar » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 04:52:28

Informative. Any seasoned reader of peak oil is aware of these issues, but this video puts it in a plain, easy to understand fashion and has a great job of calling out economists/optimistis who distort and flat out lie about data.
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Re: interesting

Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 05:02:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MissingLink', 'T')his was very interesting. Lots to think about.


The most important idea I got out of it was the idea of the geometric progression on the upside of the equation balanced by the geometric progression on the downside of the equation.

So, if we saw a 7% (doubling every ten years) on the upside, we'll see a 50% decline every ten years on the downside (halving every ten years).

I can't see how we could see a soft landing in light of this information. There's really no "landing" to be had. It'll just be a continual collapse for a hundred years back to pre-petroleum times.

I'm 33 now. Assuming PO in 2004, and assuming I live to 63, I'll see petroleum production halve three times in my lifetime. My nephew will see it halve six times. From that point forward, it probably won't make all that much difference.

Assuming we're at 100% maximum petroleum production now, we'll see one half of this production n 2014. What does that do to gas prices? Up by a factor of ten or so? Who knows. Maybe. $20/gal for gas? In another ten years, it could be up another factor of ten for $200/gal for gas. My 30 mile one-way trip to work could cost me $200. I think it would be cheaper to ride a horse to work. One more geometrical progression at a factor of ten would make it $2,000 for a single gallon of gasoline, and I can scrap any gasoline powered transportation. Even a 100MPG transportation solution would cost $20/mile. How could that be feasible? Three more geometrical progressions make $200,000 for a single gallon of gas. That's what my nephew is looking forward to in his retirement years.
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Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 05:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'T')hanks so much for posting that. It was absolutely wonderful. I have passed it on to numerous people outside this forum. Thank you again.


I got it from the www.democraticunderground.com forum. They have a peak oil group there. I usually get my news on the subject for here or energybulletin.net, but once in a great while I check in there. THere isn't as much activity there as there is here, but they do talk.

There's a couple good threads at www.fourthturning.com as well, but if PO is the 4T, then I don't think it matters much about which generation we're at and how the Gray Warriors react to it.

I'm a GenX'er according to their literature, but I don't feel very apathetic these days. I'm very much into action.
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Unread postby lowem » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 05:34:52

Live quotes - oil/gold/silver
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Unread postby skiwi » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 06:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Agren', 'S')till can't see it :x

If anyone finds another source for the video, plese post it.


The 400 mb avi version is still being seeded at http://conspiracy.hopto.org:6969

You just have to be able to download torrent files be a member

There's also a 50mb Daniel Goodstein lecture from October going strong
out_of_gas_daniel_goodstein_presentation.zip
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Unread postby joe » Mon 20 Dec 2004, 18:57:50

Maybe this lecture from Campell himself could be interesting as well?

http://video.tu-clausthal.de/vortraege/peak-oil/

A lecture held 2000 in Germany - just some basics...

Have a nice day,

Joe
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Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Tue 21 Dec 2004, 05:15:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', '
')
There's a couple good threads at www.fourthturning.com as well, but if PO is the 4T, then I don't think it matters much about which generation we're at and how the Gray Warriors react to it.

I'm a GenX'er according to their literature, but I don't feel very apathetic these days. I'm very much into action.


Actually, remember that it is the GenX ers who act to inject some sanity into the ambitions (and selfishness) of the Boomers. Remember also that if the Crisis comes early and the Xers are not yet old enough to move into positions of power to replace the Boomers then all hell breaks loose (the Crisis is way worse than anticipated).

You hang in there Ayoob, you'll be needed soon :)


Funny you should say that. There's a very select group that will benefit from my research, and I limit the number of people that will learn what I know for very selfish reasons. It's my family, my girlfriend, and my immediate friends.

I'm not reaching out beyond that group.

I think the Crisis is PO, and it's not really a generational thing. It's a physical resource thing. Very different matter from 4T things.
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Unread postby clv101 » Tue 21 Dec 2004, 07:32:22

I just watched the Dr. Albert A. Bartlett lecture, fantastic!!! Thanks for the link.
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Unread postby Falconoffury » Tue 21 Dec 2004, 17:18:59

Alright, I can't seem to get the video running on my dialup connection, I don't know how to download from lowem's link, and I tried skiwi's link, but there are so many pages I had to try the search function for bartlett, and the search function doesn't work. A little help?
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Unread postby lowem » Wed 22 Dec 2004, 02:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'A')lright, I can't seem to get the video running on my dialup connection, I don't know how to download from lowem's link, and I tried skiwi's link, but there are so many pages I had to try the search function for bartlett, and the search function doesn't work. A little help?


Well, I'm afraid you will need a little bit more than dialup to download either the ED2K or Bittorrent file (I think it's the same one), unless you don't mind holding on to that line for a week or two. It's about 400 MB in size *and* you need to queue up a little.

See if you can get someone who has broadband and knows how to use a ED2K or BT client (perhaps a relative, or a fellow forum member who lives nearby - or something?) - and get them to burn a CD and send it over to you.
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Unread postby Falconoffury » Wed 22 Dec 2004, 20:50:22

I don't think there's a such thing as a little bit more than dialup. You either have dialup or you have something 30+ times faster. For me, a little bit, is defined as at most 20% increase.

But that aside, talk about user unfriendly. It wouldn't be hard for me to get at the video if it was on regular web space. I remember early days on the internet where you didn't have to worry about crazy things like torrents, and you could download 400 MB files of regular http at a solid 48 kb without any problems. Now people are going over bandwidth limits with regular http files and it seems like everyone is turning to torrents. Peak bandwidth anyone?

Whew, what a tangent. I was able to view the video in slide show form by changing my real player settings. I have one of the worst outlooks on the future in this forum, and even I learned something about how the exponential function affects growth. It just reinforces my dark predictions. Population growth will become 0 and likely negative one day. It is inevitable.

The best part of the video was when he showed a list of things that grow population and reduce it. He said that nature will choose from the right side of the list one day no matter what we do. Fortunately, it is possible for us to make the choice from that list. I think it's time to stop guessing at how the future will be and start thinking about what to choose from the list of ways that populations go down. Do we want abortions, forced contraception, war, disease, famine, or anything from that list? Surely, we can add to the list in discussion, but the day that the human race as a whole can decide how it wants to reduce population will mark a huge point in human achievement on par with the invention of the wheel. Up until now, we have almost always let nature choose from the list for us. Will we ever have the wisdom to make our own choice from the list?
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Unread postby lowem » Wed 22 Dec 2004, 23:06:41

Sorry, I was kinda kidding about the 'little bit more" part. Though there *is* ISDN which is 64 kbps (1.1x), dual-channel ISDN at 128 kbps (2.3x), and the lower-end DSL plans which start from 256 kbps (4.6x).

It's only the cable and higher-end DSL plans which are at 1500 kbps and higher that are really 30x faster, and then of course there's Japan with their fiber-to-the-home installations ...

Well, anyway, at least you've watched the video. Me, I'm still downloading the 400 MB file :P - it's not exactly The Matrix (for the record I have the original of that one! :)) or something lol, so there're fewer sources.
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Unread postby Itch » Fri 24 Dec 2004, 01:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best part of the video was when he showed a list of things that grow population and reduce it. He said that nature will choose from the right side of the list one day no matter what we do. Fortunately, it is possible for us to make the choice from that list. I think it's time to stop guessing at how the future will be and start thinking about what to choose from the list of ways that populations go down. Do we want abortions, forced contraception, war, disease, famine, or anything from that list? Surely, we can add to the list in discussion, but the day that the human race as a whole can decide how it wants to reduce population will mark a huge point in human achievement on par with the invention of the wheel. Up until now, we have almost always let nature choose from the list for us. Will we ever have the wisdom to make our own choice from the list?


Right. I thought this was one of the most interesting parts of the video. Everything our society strives for contributes to the population problem. Unfortunately, I don't think people will accept this, because the longevity fetish doesn't seem to be losing style at this time. It would also be very difficult to encourage something from the list, which he acknowledged.

In my opinion, the most effective way to reduce the population is disease, which would spread quite quickly due to intercontinental travel. Of course, the public would not approve of a campaign for disease, but, in my opinion, I think that we'll be due for another epidemic soon, so maybe nature, the government, or whoever, is already at the plate. I still think it would be funny to have a marathon that encourages people to contract AIDS.

We have plenty of weapons at our disposal, but, like disease, I think these will also be used voluntarily. We've used nuclear weapons before when we were in a winning situation, so I think we'll see plenty of interesting actions when we lose.

I think the most humane thing to do would be to abstain from sex that produces babies. This would automatically fail since people apparently think it is a right to breed. Encouraging blowing and gobbling might work, but this type of sex requires precise communication. If people can take some time to learn about their partners' anatomy, and casually practice what their partner desires, then that would be great.

I sure would love to see some pro-smoking commercials. It'd be easy to market; just do the usual "hot chicks will beg to blow you if you use our product" for the guys, and "you're ugly, but you can become less ugly by using our product" for the girls.

Realistically, though, I think physics will make the choice.
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