[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'H')ow about civil engineers? With no fossil-fuel-driven plumbing system to wash away waste, its going to be pretty darn important to know how to deal with the truly enormous quantities of poop that will be generated. Many more people now die of disentary and other diseases caused by poor handling of waste than die of violence. This includes those in the poorest areas.

That this has not been mentioned before here shows that even this very thoughtful and enlightened group of people commenting here shows that most people are going to be totally clueless as to what is in their own best interest.

[gg3]

I would be very careful about introducing moringa or other species into ecosystems in which they are not native. Today's helpful plant could become tomorrow's pest taking over the landscape. However in its native regions it could even be grown and the water treatment product exported to other regions (essential trade, even if via sailing ships).

While we're on the subject of the world's oldest profession: Other professions directly related to physical pleasure or subjective sensations of one kind or another including sensory gratification as such:

Nude dancers. Ideally this would evolve away from its association with vice, and become a fully accepted way of combining aesthetics with adult sensuality (minus the hardcore stuff) for mixed-gender audiences (e.g. bring your spouse). Toward this end, the artistic dance community as it presently exists, should investigate ways of bringing tasteful nudity into performance.

Brewers and vintners. Expect a huge revival of local beers, ales, and suchlike. Wine may not fare as well under climate change, but will tend to go local, with higher-end wines still being traded beyond the local regions.

Distillers. Distilled beverages will tend to bifurcate into a) cheap and strong, and b) expensive, created for their taste qualities, and therefore consumed only on special occasions.

Coffee and tea producers: Supplementary sources of caffeinated or other stimulating beverages may need to be found. These may also go regional. Expect teas to become more popular over time.

Tobacco: May also become more localized, and grows nearly anywhere. Local production will include blending & creation of finished products. Thus, tobacco blenders and tobacconists (shop owners) re-appearing on a regional and local scale. Expect a revival of pipe smoking, and of materials other than briar for pipes (e.g. cherrywood, clay, etc.), and thus of local pipe makers as well.

Cannabis: De-facto legal for recreational use in many areas already, thus, growers and the entire production chain may become more overt. If legalized, expect some convergence with local beer brewing operations or local tobacco operations, and production for taste and aroma qualities. The production and supply chain for medical use will be entirely separate from that for recreational use.

Other "soft drugs." Psilocybin mushrooms can be grown indoors and will tend to replace synthetic psychedelics for psychological and religious uses. May also be used in non-psychoactive dosages for medical purposes, e.g. treatment of OCD and associated disorders. To the extent that these become legal, they will be handled by herbalists in conjunction with psychologists.

Massage therapy and acupuncture: As work moves more toward physical labor, relief from muscular/skeletal strains, pains, and minor injuries will become a significant need. Thus expect to find massage therapists associated with agriculture and construction operations, and workers lined up to get their muscles kneaded & pounded at the end of the day. Also expect to see acupuncture supplementing and partially replacing the use of chronic pain medications for e.g. arthritis and suchlike.

Clothing designers & producers: Large topic with many ramifications:

Present Western clothing styles for business use, tend to assume the availability of drycleaning and universal indoor climate control. Work clothes as used in the physical trades, also depend on assumptions about laundering, fabric materials, and frequency of replacement. There is an urgent need for new clothing styles that are proper for various types of office work and physical work, that are durable & easily maintained, and that are seasonally adaptable (i.e. different garments at different times of year). There is an equally urgent need to develop fabrics that can be produced with local fiber crops grown anywhere, and these may become regionally divergent as well.

I suspect that there will be a tendency for light plain colors to become predominant in daily wear (since they will not degrade with repeated washing and sunlight exposure), with brightly- or deeply-colored garments reserved for special occasions. Color accents in daiy wear will be provided by small accessory or decorative pieces. Thus an opening for a new type of design professional, to develop these color accent accessory pieces.

Clothing manufacture will have to become more localized, giving rise to more jobs for "factory workers" in this field. Localization of this work will tend to encourage more humane working conditions than have thus far been the norm due to local accountability of producers in local markets. The technology for production can easiily revert to the pre-petroleum period, for example sewing machines can easily be built with foot-treadle power.

And yes, more sweaters and more people to knit them.


Quick note about horses:

The word "teamster" originally referred to an individual who was skilled in the handling of teams of horses and related animals in transportation, agriculture, and construction. This trade will need to be revived. Expect to see roadbuilding and similar operations (yes, roads: gravel roads for one thing, and waterbound macadam, and cobblestone made of concrete paving blocks) conducted with horse-drawn equipment.

And while we're on the subject of oldschool industrial trades:

"Engineer" will be revived in its oldschool sense, of someone skilled in the operation of steam engines and other types of external combution engines. Little do we realize today, but this was a highly skilled trade because steam and similar types of engines are also highly dangerous if not handled properly. Stationary engines will become more widespread in various applications such as agriculture (threshing machines etc.), civil engineering (hoists & derricks, etc.), and manufacturing (factory engines to drive machinery via line shafts & belts etc.)

That's all for now....

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I') would be very careful about introducing moringa or other species into ecosystems in which they are not native. Today's helpful plant could become tomorrow's pest taking over the landscape. However in its native regions it could even be grown and the water treatment product exported to other regions (essential trade, even if via sailing ships).

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'O')ther "soft drugs." Psilocybin mushrooms can be grown indoors and will tend to replace synthetic psychedelics for psychological and religious uses. May also be used in non-psychoactive dosages for medical purposes, e.g. treatment of OCD and associated disorders. To the extent that these become legal, they will be handled by herbalists in conjunction with psychologists.

Massage therapy and acupuncture: As work moves more toward physical labor, relief from muscular/skeletal strains, pains, and minor injuries will become a significant need. Thus expect to find massage therapists associated with agriculture and construction operations, and workers lined up to get their muscles kneaded & pounded at the end of the day. Also expect to see acupuncture supplementing and partially replacing the use of chronic pain medications for e.g. arthritis and suchlike.

[topcat]

Add to the list of needed skills:

glass blower (gotta put the beer and wine in something).

[Baldwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('topcat', 'A')dd to the list of needed skills:

glass blower (gotta put the beer and wine in something).

[deMolay]

In the law of the jungle the strong survive, the weak perish..If you study any history pre the horseless carriage, you will find that healers, and tradespeople were at the top of the foodchain...Blacksmith's, Coopers, wheelwrights, shipwrights, navigator's, millwrights, warrior's, gunsmith's, carpenters, sawyers, weaver's, spinners, teamster's, candlemakers, farmer's these things will not change...But most of all what will fail most people will be their spirits, their will to carry on, most people if this comes on too quickly will not have the backbone and stamina to keep their shoulder to the wheel...It takes a lifetime to master most trades and crafts and to learn the discipline of getting up anotherday to heavywork with your back and hands and brains...When the great crash came in the 30's many took their own lives, rather than face the new reality..My father told me that men on the roads looking for work, even just for food often had water and grass to eat, when things were bad....In those days most people were God fearing and raised to respect others property..This will not be like those days I am afraid...

[deMolay]

Glass is made from molten sand..

[deMolay]

There will be no end of work for the local artisan/craftsman...People will need shoes, flour, beer...It will be a time of new opportunity for those with a necessary trade or craft....

[Baldwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'G')lass is made from molten sand..

[gg3]

Baldwin, you need to do your own research.

The brief version is: Glass can be recycled indefinitely. Sand can be found along any riverbank and obviously at ocean beaches. The temperatures needed to melt sand into molten glass, or to melt cullet (recycled glass) can be achieved with at least 1700s-era technologies. Ditto for the technologies to fom the glass into containers. Plate glass for windows dates to the mid 1800s if I'm not mistaken. All of this can be done in a post-PO world. Easily. More easily than most things.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')The rich will still exist of course... although that will be redefined too. Peak Oil means an expanded poverty footprint for mankind. More of you who "have" today... won't tomorrow.
A whole bunch more.
And you will be reduced to a poverty which is all but incomprehensible to modern Western sensibilities.

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'B')aldwin, you need to do your own research.

The brief version is: Glass can be recycled indefinitely. Sand can be found along any riverbank and obviously at ocean beaches. The temperatures needed to melt sand into molten glass, or to melt cullet (recycled glass) can be achieved with at least 1700s-era technologies. Ditto for the technologies to fom the glass into containers. Plate glass for windows dates to the mid 1800s if I'm not mistaken. All of this can be done in a post-PO world. Easily. More easily than most things.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', ' ')
I don't see it in quite such an apocalyptic light.

Consider. The evidence is that we are past peak oil now. Probably by a year or two. I didn't see the sky fall (except in New Orleans): in fact, we're now more economically prosperous than we were when oil was $10 a barrel.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', ' ')When you consider how painlessly North America and Australasia could slash oil use by maybe 30%, peak oil doesn't sound such a disaster.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Man, you must have a serious case of the denials.
Going deeper into debt to afford inflation tends to hide many effects.
Real inflation is probably running close to 8% to 9%.
Higher interest rates to curb inflation are bursting the housing bubble.
Be patient; the "sky fall"effects are coming.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
How do you painlessly cut economic activity 30%?

Wouldn't you consider massive unemployment and business closures a disaster?

Every drop of oil use, wasteful or not, employs millions and drives GDP growth.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', ' ')I could personally cut my oil use by 50% or more whenever I choose to do so, with only minor impacts on my quality of life.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ender', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Man, you must have a serious case of the denials.
Going deeper into debt to afford inflation tends to hide many effects.
Real inflation is probably running close to 8% to 9%.
Higher interest rates to curb inflation are bursting the housing bubble.
Be patient; the "sky fall"effects are coming.

[Geko45]

Montequest,

You are making a valiant effort, but most people simply can not reason beyond their own experience base. They can't think systemically. All they think is "Hey, I could cut my own use by 10% and it wouldn't be a big deal". They don't get that if everyone did that all at once it would upset the balance of the whole system. Even the worst oil shock of all time (the Iran/Iraq War) only resulted in a 5.7% annual drop in available oil supply (1981).