[Heineken]

Confidence is good. It helps in the here and now.

But in the back of my head a little voice is saying, "If those trees die, what else might?"

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
Well, how soon do folks think things will get rough in the US?
The third world will by and large get hit sooner and harder than the first. And right now having good health and strong finances help quite a bit. I voted for there being a die-off, but thought that I would survive it by being well-positioned in the US, having good health, substantial family relationships, adequate financial assets and good financial prospects, and adequate skills.
g

[carcara]

We should not forget that many of western countries food supplies come from the third world. There's actually very little local farming in many "good positions for ppo living".
What I'm worried about is that cold north europe (where i'm now living) will run out of food. Winter is pretty long and without energy it's hard to grow or find anything to eat. On the otherside it's easier to keep stored food fresh when it's cold.

Of course third world be a lot worse chaos at first but when you look how much we are dependent on slaverywork and it's productions from 3rd world, you realise that the crisis will hit hard here in west too.

[Heineken]

Carcara is right. The Third World is better prepared than the First. People there are used to doing without.

On the other hand, the environment in the Third World and developing countries is generally in far worse shape than in developed countries. So people there are going to get slammed too.

A large partial Dieoff is certain. Just a matter of time.

[JPL]

Got three young kids so voting for suicide wasn't an option...

I tried to explain recently to our eldest, that her life-expectency wasn't going to be as good as adults today. I kindof blew-it so I gave up (

We've got 12 acres, a good stack of firewood and no mortgage. No guns, but a fair bit of fencing wire. Hope that's enough (shudder).

JPL

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'W')ell, how soon do folks think things will get rough in the US?

[TreebeardsUncle]

any or all of the above

Particularly when do you think it will reach the point of the 1970's, the 1930's and the Fall of the Roman Empire if you believe it will?
g

[oowolf]

oil crash=survive
grid crash=survive
economic collapse-survive
pandemic=may survive by virtue of isolation
nuclear war=iffy; let's not go there
climate crash=survive for a while living on stored rations

I think we're gonna have an economic crash followed by major climate problems. Starts as a 2nd Great Depression, then, when we're weakened, a major dieoff initiated by a pandemic or food shortage due to poor crops, or nuclear Armageddon, or any combination of the above.
Cheers!

[perdition79]

Some of us might survive the dieoff, but without all the good stuff that industrial civilization offers, people can be easily killed by something as mundane as the flu! It would suck if a person successfully defended himself from hundreds of attackers only to be killed by a virus.

[RacerJace]

Who knows when they will die unless they are successful in suicide. I may die tomorrow from unfortunate circumstances.. if so I hope it's quick and painless.

I do believe there will be a die off and I do believe that it will be fueled by a combination of civil conflict for limited food, resources and disease. If there is an apocolyptical fanatic out there with the finger on the nuke button (or a similar misinformed military official) we may be subject to nuclear winter and radiation sickness.

I have a sword collection (I am a metallurgist and a kenjutsu and ninjutsu enthusiast) I'm also into bowhunting and have some freaky survivalist skills if needed.... but more than likely I'll die of cancer or some other afliction before I ever use my skills in anger. The funny thing about learning martial arts is that it teaches you how to be a pacifist foermost.

My biggest concern is for my children and family. Sure they will survive to the best of thier ability and may well live a full life.. how long that may be..? who knows. To cut this worn out ramble short, I have low confidence in a humane response when desperation sets in but I am hopefull that a return to village lifestyle will eventuate abet with some severe hardship along the way.

My grandfather was happy to reach three score and ten (70). I'll be happy to reach two score and ten (I'm 37 now). And I hope I will have made a difference before I die.

[killJOY]

I've had an epiphany recently:


It doesn't matter how much one prepares, because if one's neighbors haven't prepared, then it's all for nought.


Between my partner and me, we have enough knowledge and experience to live non-electric for an indefinite period of time, but if my neighbors begin swarming the farm, I'm not going to shoot them.


The people with the guns will be the first to die because they'll be too busy trying to defend their gasoline tanks rather than learning how to ferment cabbage.


I think we'll probably make it long enough to watch the horror unfold. That's what I've always wanted--just to be able to live long enough to watch the yuppies kill, die and starve so I can say "We tried to warn you fuckers but you wouldn't listen."


I'm also mentally prepared to kill myself if it gets really bad. Who wants to live in the shithole that the world might become?


My best-case scenario is this: the Northeast has a massive grid failure in the dead middle of a harsh winter. We could live months here with our wood stove, hand pumps, outhouse and stored goodies. But then spring comes, and trying to plant a garden while starved hordes are trying to capture our horses to eat them would be difficult.


I dread a slow squeeze. Gas stations running out of gas periodically. The supermarket shelves going through feast-to-famine cycles. People in horde mode. Friends coming over with their infant children--"could you give us just one more quart of your cows' milk? My baby is starving!" What am I going to say?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')I'm also mentally prepared to kill myself if it gets really bad. Who wants to live in the shithole that the world might become?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'F')riends coming over with their infant children--"could you give us just one more quart of your cows' milk? My baby is starving!" What am I going to say?

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no way I would say no to a starving baby. I'd help out then help the parent(s) find a way.

If we lose our humanity then we lose our right to exist as humans.

[EndOfSewers]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', 'T')here is no way I would say no to a starving baby.

[FourOfSwords]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', 'I') voted for a die-off with me making it. Here is why:

1. I grew up poorer and know what it is like to be without, to have a cold house in the winter. A sudden shock would not necessarily be a shock for me, at least to be unsurvivable. I'm pretty well prepared.

2. I'm a homesteader. I'm also a technician. I go to work everyday with the thought of preparing myself and my family for post peak. I work more out of the home right now realizing that will turn around in years to come. As I get older and my kids, grandkids grow, we'll be doing more on the farm. If we're lucky, the transistional shock will be minimal.

3. I live in a survivable area. Where I live is not where I would consider a bad place to be post peak. I own property and have been in my community most of my life. I'm surrounded by people that I get a long with and have known all my life. After the SHTF, people will kick into survival mode and get on board.

4. Because I'm dedicated to this, I hope to be sought out as a teacher or at least a respected elder. This can go a long way for having someone watching your back. Your whole community may want to keep you around. You folks that have to move away and establish new roots may find this difficult. I could easily see our community coming together in a big way. That's North American Indians for ya!

5. We live in an area that still has 33% forest cover. You can see it quite clearly if you use google earth to view it. It is a little north of lake Erie and west of lake Ontario. It is essentially a patch of forest with hunting and forest resources that remains largely intact. There is no shortage of firewood here. Politically it is only available to approximately 1500 people on earth.

6. With regard to the roving baddies, if dialing 911 doesn't get me a response ( as it would perhaps when TSHTF ) then I'll likely shoot you. I'm armed and I shoot regularly.

7. I want to survive. I want my family to survive. We are not overbreeders, in fact there are few of us left as it is.

If I didn't believe I could survive this, I would probably be a crazy rock star or something instead of learning how to use and sharpen old crosscut saws and how to can and garden etc etc. I would be partying. So I think it is 50% attitude and 50% circumstances.

[Revi]

I think we might make it. We'll see...

[Ludi]

Nah, I won't make it. I have health problems and am dependent on the modern medical infrastructure.

Oh well.

[killJOY]

One of my students lost his little brother in a car wreck two weeks ago. The kid has decided he wants to try to finish out the semester.

Looking at him across the room, it took my breath away to see what pain he was in.

We talked for a long time after class. I've never seen anyone face such and awful loss with such candor and fortitude.

I've seen some crazy shit as an EMT, but here was this kid, just trying to get through his day, dealing with his loss, and it killed me.


I don't want to be afraid of death, but I am.

[auscanman]

I voted for the full scale die-off, which I will survive... because I'm smarter and mentally and physically tougher than 90% (or more) of the people out there. I'm 24 now, and will be able to keep myself in excellent physical shape for the next 15 years, around which time I expect things to really sour. I'll be earning enough to make the preparations I need to in the years ahead (purchase property on decent farmland near a lake, gain farming and other experience, and become adept with firearms) and will remain childfree, as well as making sure I have enough time to spend on these preps. Most importantly if it comes to a die-off I'll feel no remorse at the fate suffered by those who chose not to prepare themselves, and will not be helping anyone other than relatives and those who have skills that will be useful post die-off.

I can see 70% of individuals not having the mental dexterity to survive, and another 20% who do have the dexterity not having the fitness or skills to survive. Attitude will be very important, and materialistic people will lose hope very quickly. I live very frugally, and abhor decadence yet am a positive, motivated person, so will have an edge over the vast majority of people in that respect as well.

I don't expect to live very long though. Its going to be a brutal, disease-ridden struggle for the billion or so survivors.