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Are you going to make it?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Are you going to survive dieoff?

There's not going to be a dieoff.
5
No votes
There'll only be a minor dieoff and yeah, I'll most likely be fine.
19
No votes
There'll be a dieoff but I'm make it because... (perhaps I'll post why)
53
No votes
Nah, I probably won't make it (maybe I'll post why not)
35
No votes
No one's going to make it (well maybe cockroaches).
9
No votes
 
Total votes : 121

Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby crapattack » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 05:16:23

I'm going to "make it" as much as possible before I go.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 09:59:38

Our expectations of the future express our hopes and desires more than the realities we are likely to encounter.

Events will take unexpected twists and turns, such that we cannot fully prepare.

For example, you might think you're all set for the Goetterdaemmerung and then die of a dental abscess because you can't get proper dental care.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 10:04:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I')'m convinced for quite a ways out it's going to be the haves and the have nots. I'd rather be a have than a have not so that's where my intentions lie at this point. ::shrug::


I call this the "castle" mentality, mmasters.

Remember what happened to the "haves" in Russia in 1917?

The haves will become steadily fewer as they are overwhelmed by the have-nots and by the impacts of environmental collapse, which will ultimately penetrate the stoutest man-made defenses.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby carcara » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 16:12:13

I'm practising survival skills now and I'm also in a very good condition. Still no preparations can 100% sure save you, because one might just as well die tomorrow stepping out of home.
I have no motivation to rob and kill and fight with my fellow men (just rather pass away), but if there will be other options to maintain I'll do my very best for sure.
Of course the coming situation might let out the animal in man and it's impossible to now know the reaction then.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Elan_Rasa » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 16:20:29

interesting poll. looks like we'll get a distribution of responses and the take away message (an educated guess based on limited responses so far) is that we are pessimistic about the ouctome of others (or humanity in general), but somewhat optimistic about the chances of our own survival.

not sure if i'll make it or not, but that is not really the point (to me anyway). will those that i love make it, is more important and as such i will do everything i can to improve their odds of making it. equally important is whether by my actions or inactions, will this world be a better or worse place when i finally leave.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Stratovarius » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 21:42:10

I will make it because I want to make it. Period.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby SeasonOfPain » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 22:38:15

I won't make it, and I really don't care much. I'll try to hold out long enough to keep my wife as comfortable as possible under the circumstances. I'm not one for surviving just for the sake of surviving, and the spectacle of it will get old after a few long, grinding decades of malnutrition, disease, and poverty. I reserve the right to change my mind if something else comes up.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 23:03:32

I think that in this endlessly chewed-over question (survival post-PO, post-environmental collapse) we are actually pondering an even more elemental matter: the prospect of our own death, period (regardless of broader cataclysms).

No, we are not going to make it. We are all going to die, amazingly soon. Because life is amazingly short (as you begin to realize when you get to be my age).
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 00:53:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I')'m convinced for quite a ways out it's going to be the haves and the have nots. I'd rather be a have than a have not so that's where my intentions lie at this point. ::shrug::


I call this the "castle" mentality, mmasters.

Remember what happened to the "haves" in Russia in 1917?

The haves will become steadily fewer as they are overwhelmed by the have-nots and by the impacts of environmental collapse, which will ultimately penetrate the stoutest man-made defenses.

That's a definite possibility and I'm sure it will happen to some extent. Generally speaking though the haves have a great track record of faring well when things get ugly. They also have more power today than ever so I wouldn't count them out. Like you say as well it's not inpenatrable, best to be a have in a good location (i.e. not on the florida coastline or desert, for example) someplace with good resources. Also be smart, keep a low profile, etc.

I don't think it will be a "be-all" as perhaps my post implied, but I think it will be a great helper and enabler, especially if used in conjunction with a good awareness of what lies ahead.

I would predict though after a dieoff it will settle into the haves and have nots again. For that is the model that has existed for practically all of human civilization (the past 100 years being a bit of an abboration).
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 10:09:18

Perhaps you're right, mmasters. But I think most of today's "haves" are abysmally prepared for Collapse. They live frivolously and are highly dependent on things remaining as they are. Salt-of-the-earth types like SpringCreekFarm are much better prepared.

Remember, too, that from a purely money perspective, economic collapse will instantly convert hordes of today's haves into have-nots.

Yes, there will always be haves and have-nots. But the rules will change beyond recognition. There will be fewer options. The very experience of being "rich" will be radically redefined.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 10:24:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '
')5. We live in an area that still has 33% forest cover. You can see it quite clearly if you use google earth to view it. It is a little north of lake Erie and west of lake Ontario. It is essentially a patch of forest with hunting and forest resources that remains largely intact. There is no shortage of firewood here.


Global warming is likely to change all that. Canada's forests are already showing signs of struggling---for example, beetles are killing millions of acres of trees. There could be epic fires.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 11:19:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou can't assume you'll be that old by then, Zardoz, unless you're plenty old already...

There's a trillion barrels of oil left, and enough coal to run the CO2 PPM level to astronomical heights.

It'll be a while before the grid fails completely. We're looking at a long, slow, agonizing unravelling of all this.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby PrairieMule » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 14:19:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '
')5. We live in an area that still has 33% forest cover. You can see it quite clearly if you use google earth to view it. It is a little north of lake Erie and west of lake Ontario. It is essentially a patch of forest with hunting and forest resources that remains largely intact. There is no shortage of firewood here.


Global warming is likely to change all that. Canada's forests are already showing signs of struggling---for example, beetles are killing millions of acres of trees. There could be epic fires.


Yea, you could be right about the bugs. We have the Emerald Ash borer that has been making its way from Michigan for the last 8 years or so but it isn't here yet. .


Funny you mentioned bugs, the mature loblolly pines in Oklahoma and N.Texas have been overun with japaneese beetles.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 15:01:05

Interesting, Prairie. We have a severe Japanese beetle problem here, but I've never noticed them eating our loblollies. Guess I just never looked---was too busy fighting them on my food plants.

I have noticed them in the deep woods (where they're not supposed to go!) eating sassafras saplings.

Japanese beetles are just a huge problem in the warmer areas. As I've theorized elsewhere, I think they will be a sharply limiting factor in small-scale, Post-PO, survivalist ag.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 15:07:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpringCreekFarm', '
')5. We live in an area that still has 33% forest cover. You can see it quite clearly if you use google earth to view it. It is a little north of lake Erie and west of lake Ontario. It is essentially a patch of forest with hunting and forest resources that remains largely intact. There is no shortage of firewood here.


Global warming is likely to change all that. Canada's forests are already showing signs of struggling---for example, beetles are killing millions of acres of trees. There could be epic fires.


Yea, you could be right about the bugs. We have the Emerald Ash borer that has been making its way from Michigan for the last 8 years or so but it isn't here yet. I've already taken mostly white ash for firewood but it died because of a drought we had more recently and some are dying from ash yellows as well. Fires are not what we are afraid of here because the forests are primarily Carolinian and there aren't enough conifers to cause a fire. I have 40 acres of bushlot and there isn't one pine tree other than the ones I've planted. Outside of grassfires in the spring, you rarely hear of any fires in our area.

We also have a problem right now with tent caterpillars but not specifically on my property.


If it gets dry enough, the hardwoods will burn too. Or just die of water-deprivation stress.

All I'm saying is that changes are coming like we've never seen before. We can't be sure that any of the things we're used to will remain unaffected. Landscapes will change beyond recognition, and many of the people who live there will be swept away, in time.

But as one farmy type to another, I wish you the best, SpringCreek.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 15:10:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')ou can't assume you'll be that old by then, Zardoz, unless you're plenty old already...

There's a trillion barrels of oil left, and enough coal to run the CO2 PPM level to astronomical heights.

It'll be a while before the grid fails completely. We're looking at a long, slow, agonizing unravelling of all this.


We shall see, Z. There's no way to know.

My sense is that several wrenching discontinuities (or mini-collapses) will punctuate that long, slow, agonizing unraveling.

The financial system seems particularly vulnerable to a sudden collapse. It's a house of cards. I don't envision a slow, orderly decline for it.

Since the financial system is connected to everything else . . .
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby crapattack » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 15:54:52

Here in BC the mountain pine beetle is devestating the pine forests. The estimates are in 10 years 80% of it will be gone. Some companies are harvesting the beetlewood like crazy before it rots for new beetlewood industries that have sprung up. Fires are a major problem as it is essentially standing dead firewood. BC is known for it's beauty - mountains and forests, but traveling now in many places is very sad. Thousands upon thousands of hectares of dead brown trees stand where there was lush green forest. Of course anything living in these forests must move on or die, and all the undergrowth dies with the trees once the canopy is gone.

It makes me think what a horrible scourage we are to this planet. Infinitely more horrible because we are capable of doing so much better and we squandered our potential to be responsible stewards and exchanged it for a few short years of insane glutony. I'm not so sure that if we survive the die-off and subsequent man-made ice age that our species won't just repeat the pattern and keep repeating the pattern until the planet is farmed-out and our species finally goes extinct. Perhaps we are a virus that migrated to earth from other worlds after we infested and destroyed our last planet home. Unlikely, but I often think that if it weren't for our artistic accomplishments in music and art, where I think we truly glimpse the divine and become greater, perhaps we deserve to die-off.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 18:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Z')ardoz: We're looking at a long, slow, agonizing unravelling of all this.

... unless a "point incident "occurs, such as war in the ME, terror attacks on NG pipelines ...

The UK is especially sensitive to say a single NG pipeline failure ... and that's when we have PLENTY of gas available.

See: Armed police guard UK gas centres

The situation in say 10 years could be a LOT more fragile ...

I really do hate to say this ... but some basic Mad Max precautions might be wise ...
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby marko » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 19:04:46

I am a pessimist. I don't think that I will live to be as old as my grandparents did. I will try to position myself to live into old age, but I frankly don't have a lot of resources, and I didn't discover peak oil until middle age, after having failed, in my ignorance, to learn the kinds of skills that might improve my chances. At my age, it is a little late to try to learn lots of manual skills, especially since my physical strength is already declining. I think that I, like the vast majority of my generation, will die early. (I will be pleased if I make it past 60.) My goal is to do what I can to enjoy my life in the present and to do what I can to increase my chances of enjoying my life in the future. I am not going to sacrifice my present happiness for some vague possibility of extending my life by a year or two in the future.
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Re: Are you going to make it?

Unread postby dutchcyclist » Mon 05 Feb 2007, 19:37:48

There will not be a dieoff, and even the economical crisis seems to become less severe and lengthy the more i study the problem ( about 1,5 year now). I am seeing much more technological progress in energy and conservation technologies then i tought would be possible. Concentrated solar power, biofuels from algae, geothermal energy, wind power, all these technologies will help. But there are also technologies that will not make it: Hydrogen, nucleair, photovoltaics, and biofuel from foodstock will all fail and might cost us a lot of money if we dont acknowledge this ASAP.
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