by MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 06:59:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Call it the Seven Steps to Financial Hell if you will.
Yea, that's the underlying mechanics of it. The cogs and levers kind of. Only thing which make it difficult for a mere mortal to follow the process in detail is all those "mechanics" in the form of politicians who run around and try to tweak the machine. Paulsson dont go to China to talk bizzniz, as much as he go to talk politics.
At the end of the day, when everything is said and done, the underlying logic will make itself evident, but until then things appear a bit opaque.
Ah, what a mess!
Well, what mere mortals sometimes have a hard time to understand is that the whole system whether it is based on gold or debt is still just a matter of trust.
A doctor can use a thermometer to take a patient's temperature. That temperature may tell the doctor a lot or very little about the patient's health, but it may also mask acute or chronic problems the patient may have.
The external value of a nations currency is very similar. It tells us many things, but not everything, and its strength or weakness may mask acute or chronic problems in the real economy.
Like when you say politicians and policy makers are running around trying to tweak the system to make everything appear alright.
The real value of the US dollar against the euro, yen, yuan, Sterling or a basket of emerging market currencies is really not a function of interest rates or trade flows, but the strength of the US' long-term sustainable competitive advantage against those other economies. Symptoms of that competitiveness are in trade flows and flows of capital. So we really do not trade foreign exchange, so much as trade competitive advantages. At least in the long-run.
This is why against a backdrop of resource depletion and America's dependence on foreign oil that its fiscal and trade imbalances are so worrying. China, Japan and Germany, who are also large importers of energy, also face many of the same problems. But they do not have the fiscal imbalances to the same degree, and they are at least net exporters.
In the end resource depletion effects every economy and its ability to produce, but if you start deep in debt you are starting with a handicap.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.