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Neat little video about the monetary system

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 04:49:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yvan', 'M')r. Bill, I think the math is slightly wrong. The system is based on an infinite geometric series. So with 5% reserve requirement, a $1000 initial deposit allows $19950 in loans. 10% allows $9900, etc...


Probably, I always sucked at Maths and Sciences in any case. No argument from me. But who needs another English or History major?

I just used an Excel spread sheet

1000 - 100 = 900
900 - 90 = 810
810 - 81 = 729
etc.

and then expanded it by 100 transactions until there were only pennies left to get the numbers. Then I changed it from 0.10 to 0.05 to get the second number. I know there is likely an easier way using a formula, but I do love Excel for Dummies! ; - )

Thanks for the correction. Cheers.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MacG » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 04:54:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yvan', 'W')hich could not happen under your hypothesis that banks can create as much money as they want out of thin air.


The limits for the banking system are not in the underlying math, it's in the lenders actual ability to pay and the value of the collaterals offered. Heck, anyone can make a promise to pay - it's quite another thing to actually be *able* to pay.

The system was designed to satisfy the needs of a world with possibilities for rapid economic expansion. Early industrialism and colonialism gave conditions where rapid expansion was possible. It can be argued that the basis for it all was the utilization of fossil energy in the form of coal.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 04:55:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yvan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'Y')ep, they "create" money out of nothing. You deposit $100 then the bank loans out $900 based on the reserve you've given them, and they count the loan paper as an "asset" to offset the "liabilities" of those new dollars in demand deposit accounts they just created.

This is not true and it is a shame that this movie leads people to believe that a bank can loan more than it has as deposit.
If you deposit $100 then the bank can only lend $100*(1-RR). So if the reserve requirement is 10% your bank can only lend $90!
The multiplier effect is only obtained through the successive deposits that this loan generates.

A bank NEVER loans more money than it has as deposit. Otherwise liabilities and assets would not balance each other.



Correct and that is what MonteQuest and others refuse to get! And it is so simple too?

By the way MMASTERS, wherever your comment was, you are also right. Central banks, as opposed to commercial banks, can create money by monetizing another countries foreign debt, for example, like when the PBOC sterilizing US dollar export receipts by printing yuan.

Wow, it is great that we can agree on somethings at least! ; - )
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 05:10:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')
Boy, you guys are thick. Read again what the Fed says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y making loans commercial banks increase their liabilities
(demand deposits ) and assets (loans ) , and in a
sense “create” money...


They balance the books using the loans as assets. If I deposit $100 in the bank and they loan out $90 to you, that's $190 in circulation, where do you think the other $90 came from? A ledger entry in the bank that's backed by the promise of you to pay. Those successive deposits the loan generates are based on money the bank created out of thin air, so yep, banks loan our more than the have in deposits, all the time. All this is based on successive debt certificates. You fail to realize most of the deposits are already bank created money.

Money is debt, like the video says, man.


But you failed to print the entire entry from the Fed article you quoted joewp. The next sentence reads.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The capacity of the commercial banking system to create demand deposits is constained by the total amount of reserves to deposits. The Federal Reserve can directly influence the money stock by both influencing the amount of reserves and changing the reserves requirements.

Source: The St. Louis Fed

It does not change the fact that you cannot loan money you do not have on your balance sheet.

Deposits are liabilities because the bank has an obligation to pay them back.

Loans are interest earning assets like any other investment.

Yes, there is a chance the loan will not be repaid in which case it is written-off as a bad debt. Loan losses from bad debts reduces the bank's assets as well as their shareholder equity.

Shareholder equity is on the same side of the balance sheet as the liabilities.

Assets = Liabilities + Shareholder Equity

It's accounting not nuclear physics! ; - )
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 05:46:50

MMASTERS several times you said that DEBT = ASSETS and therefore money created on the back of debt is created out of thin air.

That is paraphrasing, so if I got that wrong let me know? I do not want to misrepresent the facts.

In fact

DEBT loaned out = Asset based on the promise to repay

DEBT taken on = Liability based on the obligation to repay

sloppy languaging leads to confusion about what we are talking about here.

BUT we are in agreement that the quelle of all that debt that is created is on the back of government debt.

So given we said the money multiplier effect of $100 was approximately $1000 using 10% reserves, and with no slippage, then one can only attempt to do the math of what happens when the Federal government runs a large budget deficit year after year, which is then exacerbated by a trade deficit paid for in US dollars as well.

A combined current account of close to $1 trillion dollars. Which by itself is made worse by China's ability to sterlize US dollars, re-invest them in America, or at least in US dollar assets, and then create yuan in their place for use within the Chinese economy.

The problem is clearly too much money supply creation from government debt and not as many here are hung-up about commercial banks creating credit.

Because at the end of the day SAVINGS = INVESTMENT and a current account SURPLUS = DEFICIT in someone else's current account. And one country's trade DEFICIT = SURPLUS of another. It has to be. Even the US government has to find someone to buy its DEBT. Which represent its liabilities not its assets.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MacG » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 06:13:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'E')ven the US government has to find someone to buy its DEBT. Which represent its liabilities not its assets.


If kind foreigners stop buying US debt, the buyer of last resort is the Fed.

As long as governments issue debt instruments to pay for infrastructure, and the Fed monetize that debt. it can be argued that those investments encourage other economic activities, and that the expansion of money supply dont cause price inflation.

When the government issue debt instruments to pay for running expenses though, we are in a different ballpark. As long as friendly forigners buy the debt instruments everything is cosy, but if they stop buying and the Fed take their place, well, welcome to inflationary hell.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 06:26:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'E')ven the US government has to find someone to buy its DEBT. Which represent its liabilities not its assets.


If kind foreigners stop buying US debt, the buyer of last resort is the Fed.

As long as governments issue debt instruments to pay for infrastructure, and the Fed monetize that debt. it can be argued that those investments encourage other economic activities, and that the expansion of money supply dont cause price inflation.

When the government issue debt instruments to pay for running expenses though, we are in a different ballpark. As long as friendly forigners buy the debt instruments everything is cosy, but if they stop buying and the Fed take their place, well, welcome to inflationary hell.



Step one: foreigners willing to buy US debt at current interest rates and current exchange rates

Step two: foreigners only willing to buy US debt at higher 'real' interest rates and/or at a lower exchange rate on the US dollar

Step three: foreigners unwilling to buy US debt

Step four: US debt only bought by US based investors but at high 'real' interest rates. This drains net investment away from housing, stock market and real economy. Growth slows.

Step five: US investors unwilling to buy US debt

Step six: US prints money resulting in hyper-inflation in an attempt to inflate away the real value of its debts

Step seven: US forced to issue debt in euros, yen, yuan or other foreign currency through the eurobond market as no faith in the US ability to service US dollar debt anymore*


Call it the Seven Steps to Financial Hell if you will.

*As in fact happens to many countries like Argentina and others that for example are unable to meet their spending targets by relying on domestic debt in pesos, so they are forced to issue debt in US dollars in the eurobond market. They then need exports to generate foreign currency to pay for servicing debt in foreign currency. These debts cannot be inflated away, so they are a real drag on the economy due to the cost of debt service.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MacG » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 06:46:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Call it the Seven Steps to Financial Hell if you will.


Yea, that's the underlying mechanics of it. The cogs and levers kind of. Only thing which make it difficult for a mere mortal to follow the process in detail is all those "mechanics" in the form of politicians who run around and try to tweak the machine. Paulsson dont go to China to talk bizzniz, as much as he go to talk politics.

At the end of the day, when everything is said and done, the underlying logic will make itself evident, but until then things appear a bit opaque.

Ah, what a mess!
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 06:59:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Call it the Seven Steps to Financial Hell if you will.


Yea, that's the underlying mechanics of it. The cogs and levers kind of. Only thing which make it difficult for a mere mortal to follow the process in detail is all those "mechanics" in the form of politicians who run around and try to tweak the machine. Paulsson dont go to China to talk bizzniz, as much as he go to talk politics.

At the end of the day, when everything is said and done, the underlying logic will make itself evident, but until then things appear a bit opaque.

Ah, what a mess!




Well, what mere mortals sometimes have a hard time to understand is that the whole system whether it is based on gold or debt is still just a matter of trust.

A doctor can use a thermometer to take a patient's temperature. That temperature may tell the doctor a lot or very little about the patient's health, but it may also mask acute or chronic problems the patient may have.

The external value of a nations currency is very similar. It tells us many things, but not everything, and its strength or weakness may mask acute or chronic problems in the real economy.

Like when you say politicians and policy makers are running around trying to tweak the system to make everything appear alright.

The real value of the US dollar against the euro, yen, yuan, Sterling or a basket of emerging market currencies is really not a function of interest rates or trade flows, but the strength of the US' long-term sustainable competitive advantage against those other economies. Symptoms of that competitiveness are in trade flows and flows of capital. So we really do not trade foreign exchange, so much as trade competitive advantages. At least in the long-run.

This is why against a backdrop of resource depletion and America's dependence on foreign oil that its fiscal and trade imbalances are so worrying. China, Japan and Germany, who are also large importers of energy, also face many of the same problems. But they do not have the fiscal imbalances to the same degree, and they are at least net exporters.

In the end resource depletion effects every economy and its ability to produce, but if you start deep in debt you are starting with a handicap.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 11:27:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'M')MASTERS several times you said that DEBT = ASSETS and therefore money created on the back of debt is created out of thin air.

Yes because there is nothing tangible behind this newly created money.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')DEBT loaned out = Asset based on the promise to repay

DEBT taken on = Liability based on the obligation to repay

Agreed and do you like the fact that the money you have in your bank account was created based on someone elses liability or promise to pay?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')loppy languaging leads to confusion about what we are talking about here.

Like saying money creation and credit expansion are different things? ;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')UT we are in agreement that the quelle of all that debt that is created is on the back of government debt.

Not exactly because it is not just created on government debt, it can be created upon other forms of debt such as bankers acceptances.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o given we said the money multiplier effect of $100 was approximately $1000 using 10% reserves, and with no slippage, then one can only attempt to do the math of what happens when the Federal government runs a large budget deficit year after year, which is then exacerbated by a trade deficit paid for in US dollars as well.
Like referenced above there is not a 1 to 1 relationship between government spending and money creation so we can't put the blame squarely on their shoulders.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is clearly too much money supply creation from government debt and not as many here are hung-up about commercial banks creating credit.
Again this can be misleading.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd one country's trade DEFICIT = SURPLUS of another. It has to be. Even the US government has to find someone to buy its DEBT. Which represent its liabilities not its assets.
Exactly, one parties debt (or promise to pay) becomes someone elses asset. This monster has gone worldwide, the whole thing is based on debt and nothing tangible. If all the debt were to be payed off there would be no money in circulation to support the economy! Everything reconciled = no money in circulation. Therefore talk of paying off all debt and "balancing budgets" is hogwash.

This whole system with monetization of debt, adjustable reserve ratios and so forth is essentially just one big printing press because there is nothing behind the created money in terms of tangible assets. Do you find that ethical Mr Bill?
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 11:53:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, what mere mortals sometimes have a hard time to understand is that the whole system whether it is based on gold or debt is still just a matter of trust.

I think what they have a harder time understanding is a system based on promises rather than something REAL. I know I had a hard time with it and many people in this thread have had a hard time with it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the end resource depletion effects every economy and its ability to produce, but if you start deep in debt you are starting with a handicap.

The whole thing is based on debt and therefore that puts a handicap on society in general to the lenders. Therefore society is not in a good position for resource depletion. Furthermore I argue the minority will manipulate the majority into absolute poverty to keep their status quo on top when things start caving in.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 12:04:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, what mere mortals sometimes have a hard time to understand is that the whole system whether it is based on gold or debt is still just a matter of trust.

I think what they have a harder time understanding is a system based on promises rather than something REAL. I know I had a hard time with it and many people in this thread have had a hard time with it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the end resource depletion effects every economy and its ability to produce, but if you start deep in debt you are starting with a handicap.

The whole thing is based on debt and therefore that puts a handicap on society in general to the lenders. Therefore society is not in a good position for resource depletion. Furthermore I argue the minority will manipulate the majority into absolute poverty to keep their status quo on top when things start caving in.


I have no time now and I am on holidays tomorrow. Back on Monday. But then I hope to write a post on the value of assets. Specifically financial assets. Then we can define what an asset is and what it is worth. If money creation has to be based on something more than a promise to pay then we should define what an asset is and what its real value is. But not today. Have a nice weekend. Cheers.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MacG » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 12:20:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'T')his whole system with monetization of debt, adjustable reserve ratios and so forth is essentially just one big printing press because there is nothing behind the created money in terms of tangible assets.


Oh yes, there are values behind the created money. Most *serious* loans are made against collateral of some form. Deeds to a property, title to a company and shares or such. It's just petty credit card debt which is allowed without collateral. Even car loans use to take the car as collateral. A banker who is not prudent about the value of collaterals and the borrowers actual ability to pay will find himself in hot water pretty quickly. If many bankers are imprudent at the same time, the government will bail them out though.

Note: Make no mistakes - I think that the system is rotten and will crash!
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby joewp » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 12:38:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yvan', '[')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually, it's worse than that, since the same piece says that reserve requirements are virtually extinct, there's nothing to prevent banks from making as many loans as they can.

If it was the case the dollars in your pocket would be absolutely worthless. Just look at the math.


I am looking at the math. I have a 1956 quarter on my desk that I can sell for $2.50 today. If those dollars aren't moving towards "worthless" than in which direction are they going?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Also the fact that there is no RR for M2 is not a problem at all because the deposits for M2 cannot be withdrawn for a predefined period of time. Hence no money is created.


Wrong.
"M2: M1 + most savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificate of deposit accounts (CDs) of under $100,000."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

Why are you arguing against the Fed, who says banks create money? They say that commercial banks create money. Why do you think they're lying?
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 12:55:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'T')his whole system with monetization of debt, adjustable reserve ratios and so forth is essentially just one big printing press because there is nothing behind the created money in terms of tangible assets.


Oh yes, there are values behind the created money. Most *serious* loans are made against collateral of some form. Deeds to a property, title to a company and shares or such. It's just petty credit card debt which is allowed without collateral. Even car loans use to take the car as collateral. A banker who is not prudent about the value of collaterals and the borrowers actual ability to pay will find himself in hot water pretty quickly. If many bankers are imprudent at the same time, the government will bail them out though.

Sure collateral is claimed in exchange for the loan money in case of default, but there is no collateral (or tangible asset) behind the money itself.

Think about it...if the economy fell apart overnight the banks would own almost everything. What did they do to gain this right?

Here's Jefferson again:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 12:57:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, what mere mortals sometimes have a hard time to understand is that the whole system whether it is based on gold or debt is still just a matter of trust.

I think what they have a harder time understanding is a system based on promises rather than something REAL. I know I had a hard time with it and many people in this thread have had a hard time with it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the end resource depletion effects every economy and its ability to produce, but if you start deep in debt you are starting with a handicap.

The whole thing is based on debt and therefore that puts a handicap on society in general to the lenders. Therefore society is not in a good position for resource depletion. Furthermore I argue the minority will manipulate the majority into absolute poverty to keep their status quo on top when things start caving in.


I have no time now and I am on holidays tomorrow. Back on Monday. But then I hope to write a post on the value of assets. Specifically financial assets. Then we can define what an asset is and what it is worth. If money creation has to be based on something more than a promise to pay then we should define what an asset is and what its real value is. But not today. Have a nice weekend. Cheers.

I hope you'll actually address my points when you come back. Have a good one.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby MacG » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 14:29:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')Sure collateral is claimed in exchange for the loan money in case of default, but there is no collateral (or tangible asset) behind the money itself.


Pretty esoteric discussion. In reality there are values backing the loans people and corporations take, but maybe not in theory then... The stinker in my book is government bonds. The very defining streak of the system is that governments bonds are accepted at face value by the central bank. No further collateral needed there! The governments unlimited "right" to tax the country is collateral enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'T')hink about it...if the economy fell apart overnight the banks would own almost everything. What did they do to gain this right?


Ahh... There are quite some number of people who have "got theirs" and have solid fortunes and no loans, and who will benefit tremendously from the fire-sale prices on everything found in a collapse.

Banking is largely a parasitic activity, and thus there is a need for a host. The banks cant run companies and they don't want to be landlords. They would not gain from a collapse, since they would lose the host.

The only thing the people behind the banks had to do to gain their "rights" was to pull wool over the eyes of the majority of the people, and then ally themselves with the guys with the guns and the soldiers. That's how it got started in 1694.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby bshirt » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 15:46:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '
')Banking is largely a parasitic activity, and thus there is a need for a host. The banks cant run companies and they don't want to be landlords. They would not gain from a collapse, since they would lose the host.

The only thing the people behind the banks had to do to gain their "rights" was to pull wool over the eyes of the majority of the people, and then ally themselves with the guys with the guns and the soldiers. That's how it got started in 1694.


Extremely well written post, MacG. However, how and where did they successfully pull the wool over the eyes of the majority of the people?

I'm inclined to guess the guns and soldiers were the overwhelming deciding factor. Either that or the politicians sold out the people.
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby joewp » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 16:18:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')Here's Jefferson again:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."


Why is it that nobody ever listens to the smart guys? :cry:
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Re: Neat little video about the monetary system

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 22 Feb 2007, 16:30:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '
')Banking is largely a parasitic activity, and thus there is a need for a host. The banks cant run companies and they don't want to be landlords. They would not gain from a collapse, since they would lose the host.

Sometimes the host must be sacrificed for the greater host. If you want to make the world a host you have to set up a situation to get all the little hosts to agree to being absorbed into one. The US is currently the big host and doesn't want to be overshadowed by a bigger host. So the US host must be compromised to furfill the greater agenda of a "one world host" ;)
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