[rockdoc123]

Just so everyone will understand how statistically improbable it would be to discover a single field of >10 Billion barrels in the GOM I thought I would plot up the field size distribution. First off here is a plot of field size "families" or ranges of reserve sizes for the US and Mexico GOM including both shallow and deepwater:



Note there is only 1 field where reserves greater than 10 billion barrels have been discovered....part of Cantrell. If we look at time series probablility reserve size distributions you end up with:



Which tells us there is a very low chance of finding a single field of 10 billion barrels size. Not only that but the second time series (later discoveries in the cycle) have a much lower P10 and P50 reserve size...suggesting that there is less chance now than there was say 5 years ago.

That being said this part of the GOM is very underexplored ....there are only a few wells so it is quite possible that we haven't completed sampled the "universe" . The likelihood, however, is that there will be a lot of separate fields....perhaps they would add up to the number Fox is muttering about, should be interesting to see.

[AirlinePilot]

could

aux.v.

Past tense of can

Used to indicate ability or permission in the past: I could run faster then. Only men could go to the club in those days.
Used with hypothetical or conditional force: If we could help, we would.
Used to indicate tentativeness or politeness: I could be wrong. Could you come over here?

Not quite what I thought it would say, but I do understand the definition. If we could produce 10Gb of oil from this field we would, but it does not mean that we can.

Could is not will or shall. Frankly I doubt it's anything more than a politically expedient event they are using to calm the masses worried about Cantarell's decline.

[cudabachi]

Reading those blurbs about BP's ThunderHorse floating production platform really bring to mind how long it takes to get oil from Deep Water GOM finds to the market.

At the time I left the oilfield in June of 2000, my company was involved in the evaluation of the reservoir fluids from the discovery well, which I believe had been drilled in late 1999.

With all the money and technology available to BP, it appears they've still not brought any of that oil to market.....which might help explain the gigantic yawn the market gave to Fox's announcement.

[Leanan]

Analysts Skeptical of Claims of a Large Mexican Oil Find

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nalysts say they are skeptical of news this week from the Mexican state oil monopoly that exploratory drilling in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico shows signs of a giant new oil field.

Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, says that early indications suggest that the field could be as large as 10 billion barrels. But analysts said that it was premature to make an estimate based on preliminary drilling.

"To me it's entirely speculative and hypothetical," said David Shields, an oil analyst and consultant in Mexico City.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')
Yup. And there you see the problem. It took awhile to build the infrastructure to produce the oil. It's not "low-hanging fruit." The new fields coming online will probably be even more challenging. After all, there's a good reason why they haven't been produced before.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am not familiar with what data Ken uses, but it seems Campbell and others don't agree with him.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'J')ust so everyone will understand how statistically improbable it would be to discover a single field of >10 Billion barrels in the GOM [...]

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't agree with using probabilities to state whether this is true or not. The reason is that any large oil field is hard to find. Outside of Middle East, how many 10+ oil fields are there? What are the chances of finding one?

The answer is that it is nearly impossible to find one.
This does not mean we have to view all large finds skeptically. If there is evidence shown, then we should evaluate based on evidence. If no evidence, then believe based on faith as there is no logical reason.

[pedalling_faster]

the well is about 185 miles south of New Orleans (i think)

the water temp in key west is ... 77 degrees F.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

this relates to hurricanes.

i think most of us will be surprised if Hurricane Season 2006 is a lightweight.

the relation between Peak Oil and Climate Change becomes a little more apparent.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')
I doubt it. Even the cornucopians are predicting this year is likely to be a bad one for oil production. Next year they hope for an increase. If 2007 shows a decline, too, that will indicate to me that Deffeyes is right.

[Tanada]

It has now been a couple of weeks since MARS went back online but the press releases are near identicle. Does anyone have a solid number on what level production is producing right now?

May 22 report

May 28 report

[DantesPeak]

OIL'S NOT WELL YET IN GULF
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il industry still fixing damage from Katrina
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
By Pam Radtke Russell
Business writer

Despite Herculean efforts to get oil production restarted in the Gulf of Mexico after last fall's storms, if such storms hit again, the results will again be painful for Americans at the gas pump.

"We feel like there's been a tremendous amount of work done, as much work as possible, but we're not about to declare victory," said Bud Danenberger, chief of offshore regulatory programs at the federal Minerals Management Service. "We're going to continue to work."

Shell Oil's Mars platform, which started producing last week, and will be producing at its full capacity by the end of June, will restore 130,000 barrels of oil a day to the Gulf's production.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil rigs are leaving the Gulf of Mexico in record numbers, threatening to put upward pressure on U.S. oil and natural gas prices, according to a report published Wednesday.

Drilling companies are increasingly signing long-term deals with oil firms to send their rigs to more promising drilling regions overseas, said the Wall Street Journal.

[Ancien_Opus]

Follow the money.

Matt Simmons is all over this. Saudi Arabia is paying 2-3 times the going rate for rigs and the exodus from the Gulf of Mexico started long before Katrina hit. The Saudi's appear to emmulating the behavior of West Texas in the 1970's, drill-drill-& even more drilling. Of course it did not reverse the decline. Just another sign that perhaps all is not well in the desert kingdom.

[Leanan]

Yup. TOD had an article article about it recently.

In particular, check out this graph. The blue line is the number of rigs. The green and purple lines are two different estimates of Saudi production. Rig count is going through the roof. Production is not.

[SoothSayer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil rigs are leaving the Gulf of Mexico in record numbers, threatening to put upward pressure on U.S. oil and natural gas prices, according to a report published Wednesday.

Drilling companies are increasingly signing long-term deals with oil firms to send their rigs to more promising drilling regions overseas, said the Wall Street Journal.

[strider3700]

LOL

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'A') fully grown male oil rig looking for a mate

[pepper2000]

Another theory put forward is that the Saudis are using their newfound wealth to buy up rigs and run the price of oil up. I don't know if I believe this is true, but it's an idea.