[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')errorism and political instability, but we have used conservative outlooks that help account for such potential events.

[malcomatic_51]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '[') Depending on how you come up with the numbers, you will get different numbers..

I can totally see why Mackenzie lists Non-OPEC PO after 2013. They are using what you guys will call conservative estimates of declining production in brown fields. That is the major contention between PO and non-PO analysis. The non-PO believed in technology to slowdown declines in brown fields, while PO believes in accelerated decline when enhanced recovery methods are applied after a brief boost. I don't know Mackenzie's exact model, but it is the same story for CERA and IEA, etc.... They all just assume a more robust enhanced recovery ability than you guys believed.

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('malcomatic_51', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '[') Depending on how you come up with the numbers, you will get different numbers..


Isn't Woods Mackenzie to some extent tied in to its source of income? It lives by its industry clientele. If WM started dooming, then unless they had absolutely certain proof they were right, they'd get castigated by their clients for disturbing market confidence unnecessarily. It is all too typical that vested commercial interests will deny the gathering storm clouds until the lighting is scorching their heels.

[DantesPeak]

Has anyone actually read this report, since it is not available to the public? We're kind of guessing here how they came to their conclusions.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can totally see why Mackenzie lists Non-OPEC PO after 2013. They are using what you guys will call conservative estimates of declining production in brown fields. That is the major contention between PO and non-PO analysis. The non-PO believed in technology to slowdown declines in brown fields, while PO believes in accelerated decline when enhanced recovery methods are applied after a brief boost. I don't know Mackenzie's exact model, but it is the same story for CERA and IEA, etc.... They all just assume a more robust enhanced recovery ability than you guys believed.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '8')4mbpd? I don't know what numbers you are using as basis...

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

Rockdoc, thank you for your insightful and helpful input.

Since WoodMac’s objective analysis is backed by realistic and accurate data (conservative it sounds like as well), this would be much more accurate to me than someone trying to sell books/guides or drive web site traffic using fear tactics/data manipulation and/or just ignoring important pieces of relevant data - which is what I have seen on this site in my very short tenure.

My life experiences indicate that the truth is generally somewhere in the middle – WoodMac’s conclusion fits into this (ex. Pessimism of Cambell vs Optimism of Lynch).

Guess I can call this ‘my paradigm’.

Have a good Memorial Day weekend everyone, and take care.

[DantesPeak]

Thanks for the insight on the report.

Here's something I found they said a year or so ago:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Globe and Mail
Copyright 2004 by The Globe and Mail
October 2, 2004

Section: Reuter International
COVER STORY/CRUDE
Oil: Too much discipline at $50

More worrisome are Wood Mackenzie's projections: Production from the 10 supermajors will peak in 2008, as the ability to wring more output from existing fields wanes. By 2013, it predicts, output from the supermajors will be lower than in 2003 -- unless exploration spending picks up.

[markam]

I worked as a consultant for many years. Consultants will say whatever happy horseshit they are paid to say. I am quite sure that they could release an equally impressive report that states that PO has already occured and that oil production will drop steadily from here on out.

They may be right, but like everyone says, we will only know the peak years after it has occured.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y life experiences indicate that the truth is generally somewhere in the middle –

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

Markam, it sounds like you were not good consultant.

A good and objective consultant will gather all possible data, analyze the data gathered, and recommend/or implement solutions.

Markum, please let the forum know what company you worked for so we can avoid it.

Thank you

[malcomatic_51]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'R')ather than everyone speculating on how WoodMac came up with this.....I've read the report and have access to the underlying research through their Upstream service.

.......

The post 2013 peak jives perfectly with the data which I've accessed from the Upstream service. In order to make it occur earlier either some of the projects have to crater or demand needs to increase at a rate greater than predicted.

[SoothSayer]

They may be right, but like everyone says, we will only know the peak years after it has occured.

Hirsch says we will know ONE year after the Peak has been reached ... but I don't know what he bases this on.

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') good and objective consultant will gather all possible data, analyze the data gathered, and recommend/or implement solutions.

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')
Rather than everyone speculating on how WoodMac came up with this.....I've read the report and have access to the underlying research through their Upstream service.

No they do not use conservative estimates of declines, generally they have fields going into decline at 10% or greater. What drives their analyses is field sizes and projects which have development plans approved. When they say conservative they mean that their reserve analysis is conservative. As an example for Kuwait they state that their estimate of 48 GB is conservative as they do not give credit to "technical reserves" until such time as a project plan has been announced.

The post 2013 peak jives perfectly with the data which I've accessed from the Upstream service. In order to make it occur earlier either some of the projects have to crater or demand needs to increase at a rate greater than predicted.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '8')4mbpd? I don't know what numbers you are using as basis...

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ockdock123, can you shed some light on what increase they are talking about for non-OPEC. The aggregrate figure that is. Are we talking about little sips? Or large enough increases to let the oil price drop?

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

Rocdock, thank you for the graphs. If you have the time, could you please answer a few questions?

1) I believe CTL's (coal to liquids) have the potential to a significant impact in the coming decades. Am I correct in assuming CTL's are not accounted for in these graphs?

2) Looks like Latin America is predicted to increase somewhat between now and 2010 but I haven't been able to locate any information on big upstream projects. Are there major upstream expansion projects that I am missing with regards to this?

3) Looks like their overall assessment of OPEC if fairly pessimistic. Assuming Iraq becomes stable enough in the coming years to attract foreign investment, what do you think their overall potential is in the next decade from a barrels per day standpoint?

Looks like these graphs agree with what I've been able to gather and analyze in my few months of research - tight but ample supply over the next decade…..A recession or political unrest (both of which could lead to the other) may occur which could alter the supply/demand equation - but it doesn't look like my family will be living in a shoebox because of peak oil. If they do it will because of other external circumstances.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('malcomatic_51', '[')

The post 2013 peak jives perfectly with the data which I've accessed from the Upstream service. In order to make it occur earlier either some of the projects have to crater or demand needs to increase at a rate greater than predicted.