[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Beats me, although as a Southern Californucopian, I can say that a reduction in traffic around here will be an indication that the suffering has begun. If we're not in our damned cars, it will only be because we're hurting..

[Corpsicle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '.').. do you want to offer an objective "index" on how to measure the PAIN of PO?

[sameu]

and it only seems like yesterday I've read JD's goodbuy topic

the wole problem here is the fact that people tend to believe that everyone else acts and thinks like themself

Maybe the next example can increase your empathy
I don't drive a car either, so rising gasprices don't bother me at all
but let's say when oilprice hits $80 they will cut off your internet
If it falls under that price it's back on, above, cut off again

for some people their car is like your and mine internetconnection

will they die, no, but they will suffer

[Wildwell]

I’m afraid this is where people get their calculations wrong again.

You see the cost of motoring is not the cost of fuel: It’s the cost of the car, spare parts, servicing and MPG…because obviously the more efficient the car, the lower the cost of motoring per mile. Fuel may have gone up, but it has to be inflation adjusted, and the cost of other things, plus MPG has to be taken into account.

I hear people say 'You know what in 1975 fuel was only 10p a litre'. Well boo-hoo it's called inflation. You could buy a family house for £30,000 then, now the cost is nearer £200,000.

Obviously every country is different, but for the UK the cost of motoring is this:

Per car

Link
Which seems expensive in some cases, such as 50p a mile for a typical Ford Mondeo…but when we adjust for inflation and disposable income we get a different picture.

Chart

[Peak_Plus]

Right.
As y'all can see, it's not such an easy thing to quantify. We might all know that it will be worse for us all, but how do we measure it???
Definitely not in price, and I think this is the value of JD's 300 posts.

Where is the pain going to be???

Ok, I sold my car (well, basically just threw it away cause the repairs were getting too expensive) and now I use my bike and public trans and hitch a ride from work with a colleague, even though I make good money. Now I'm going to buy a car with a neighbor - we've got all the details of the contract for Car Sharing worked out.

I NEED a car, partially to get rid of all the trash that a 5-head family produces:

Sorting trash is the law in Germany. And it's not picked up by something with four wheel and flies - you have to take it to the recycling center yourself. Isn't that just A PURE WASTE OF EFFICIENCY and FUEL????

So, what I'm saying is, is that JD IS RIGHT. There will be millions of solutions for our everyday situations. So where's the pain?

Not in fewer miles driven.
Not in higher energy prices.
Not in United Airline's bankruptcy.
Not in fewer strawberries in winter.

I was thinking of saying "calories consumed by the average American", but that can be cut by about 40% without causing one person pain. (late 18th century European consumption was less than 2000 per head. US is almost 4000 right now.)

Where is the Pain!!!?

Unemployment hurts.
Lower disposable income hurts (remained the same in the US from about 1974 to 1994, for instance).
No heating in the winter hurts.
Being in jail hurts.
War hurts.
Losing your house hurts.
Going bankrupt hurts.

Which of these can be more than indirectly attributed to Peak Oil???
Which of these can we index (measure) so that I can even bet with JD?

Come on, Sameu, defend yourself! Dollar won't crash? Who cares! What does that have to do with PO?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'W')here is the Pain!!!?

Unemployment hurts.
Lower disposable income hurts (remained the same in the US from about 1974 to 1994, for instance).
No heating in the winter hurts.
Being in jail hurts.
War hurts.
Losing your house hurts.
Going bankrupt hurts.

Which of these can be more than indirectly attributed to Peak Oil???

[fafhrd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDonner', 'I') eat dweebs like you for breakfast

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Come on, Sameu, defend yourself! Dollar won't crash? Who cares! What does that have to do with PO?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xponential growth is not a fairy tale. Reality is that things look good until the 29th day. It appears you have time. You don't. Overnight, things go from ok to untenable.

[Novus]

JD, does have one point here and that is we lack a way to quantify a decline in perceptable life. I propose that we look at electricity interuption rates because it represents much of modern day civilization. You can't do much without electricity: no TV, no radio, no computer, no Internet, no light bulbs, no washer/drier, no electric tooth brush, ect. Without electricity your life would be significanly different. In the US electricity is available on demand 99.99% of the time. This means that if you pay your electric bill you will have electricty interupted only 0.01% of the time or for one hour out of every 10,000 hours. If this interuption rate doubled it would be one hour out of every 5,000 hours.

At what point would this be a serious event? No power for one out of every 100hrs? No power for one out of every 10hrs? Or would it not be considered a real problem until power was cut off more then 50% of the time? It is hard to say and I am not about to make predictions of when these things will take place. A prediction I am willing to make is that electricity will decline from here on out becoming less and less available over time.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '.')..we lack a way to quantify a decline in perceptable life. I propose that we look at electricity interuption rates because it represents much of modern day civilization.

[rwwff]

Hard to say. Any interuptions of an hour or so are only moderately annoying, even if its every couple of weeks. We had a bit of rolling blackout a few weeks back when it got unexpectedly warm and they had some generating plants offline in the middle of their maintenance schedule. A three hour offline, even once a year would really, REALLY, irritates me. (unless caused by hurricane, I accept that as part of the price of living within 60 miles of the gulf coast.) I do have a generator, as well as a 750 watt inverter that a car can run, so its not hideous, but it would be very annoying.

So, I'd measure it more along the lines of the maximum daily interuption over the course of any 12 month period.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')A non-event?

Tell that to my countrymen who will perish in Iraq today fighting for pole-position in the oil-rich middle east.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') measure events in terms of objective criteria like body count. There simply aren't enough troops dying in Iraq to constitute an "event".

It just seems like an event due to all the media obsession and hype. Objectively speaking, GI Joe getting killed in Iraq is no more significant than Average Joe getting killed on the freeway.

[JoeCoal]

I second Zardoz's motion.

I wonder if JD would count it as an "event" if HE got killed on the highway. Perhaps that could be arranged...

[Free]

Come on people please...

We discuss potential die off on a daily basis here, and you pretend to be upset about an (admittedly very low class) remark like this?

As long it doesn't get personal and against the COC, it would be horrible to ban anyone, IMHO.

Other than that I think JD is full of it, and quite frequently a %/($(/$$%&§$&§

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeCoal', 'I') wonder if JD would count it as an "event" if HE got killed on the highway.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') measure events in terms of objective criteria like body count. There simply aren't enough troops dying in Iraq to constitute an "event".

It just seems like an event due to all the media obsession and hype. Objectively speaking, GI Joe getting killed in Iraq is no more significant than Average Joe getting killed on the freeway.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')On a different note, give JohnDenver a break, he *is* a doomer. Read between the lines on his posts to find it. On face value of his words he is simply defending a position for his pride.