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peakoildebunked retires

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 11 May 2006, 03:46:54

Hey... If you stubborn folks don't believe me, do the experiment yourself:

1) Turn off your TV
2) Don't read the newspaper/magazines
3) Turn off your internet
4) Whittle on your front porch instead of sticking the media mainline into the back of your skull everyday like that nasty plug in the matrix.

Now, once you're in this de-media-fied state, tell me how much of an event the Iraq war is. Odds are, you won't perceive it at all. This is because it never had any real effects on you in the first place, except as media hype.

The same goes for peak oil. The only reason it appears to be real is because everyday you are jacking into a hallucinatory media hype machine about peak oil. If you just turn off your media feeds, you'll find that the real-world repercussions of peak oil in your neighborhood are so boring and slow that they aren't even worth paying attention to.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Thu 11 May 2006, 03:58:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'N')ow, once you're in this de-media-fied state, tell me how much of an event the Iraq war is. Odds are, you won't perceive it at all. This is because it never had any real effects on you in the first place, except as media hype.

The Bore-War was also a non-event, although it signaled the beginning of the end of the British Empire.

I'll remain stubborn on two things:

1) Katrina was not "just" a media event. Ask my sister.
2) Give me an objektive measure of "Pain" associated with PO, (YES, body count, for instance) and I'll leave you be.
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 11 May 2006, 04:01:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..I can remove the Iraq war from my life at any time, simply by pressing the "OFF" button on the TV...It's just a TV show.


More fantastic with every post.

I've seen egocentrism before, but nothing like this. It appears to be a studied and self-willed personal isolation. You appear to be incapable of empathy. Where did this come from, JD?

You deny the horrors of Iraq by calling it a TV show. You deny the harsh reality of the end of the oil age by calling it a non-event. Does such "unpleasantness" frighten you so much that you try to just will it away?

You really ought to read this:

The Neurobiology of Mass Delusion

Its about institutionalized denial, but it sure seems to apply to the way you think, and how you seem to be so fearful of the great changes that are coming:

Rigidity of mental models in the face of countervailing information is called denial. Given what we now know about the structure and function of different brain regions, we can understand the physiological roots of denial. The data nullifying a cherished mental model are systematically filtered out before the conscious brain is even aware of them. The expression, "Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil," exemplifies this censoring process.

The conscious brain is not a simple dupe however. It can actively participate in the act of denial. This is termed "rationalization," and involves complex neocortical functions. People can erect fancier houses of cards and hold on to their cherished beliefs even in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.

I'll give you this, though: You're good at denial. You make it work very well for you, and that's what it's all about, isn't it?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 11 May 2006, 04:12:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '2')) Give me an objektive measure of "Pain" associated with PO, (YES, body count, for instance) and I'll leave you be.


Dom, sure let's go with body count. How many people are dying as a result of peak oil, right now?

Edit) This one by rwwff (Zardoz) is good too:

Then, I think we have a pretty simple sliding scale...
basex = number of vehicle miles driven in 2000
cx = number of vehicle miles driven in a particular year

pain index = 200 - [(100 * cx) /basex]

Current pain index by either scale => No pain. As I said, objective measures show peak oil to be a non-event.
Last edited by JohnDenver on Thu 11 May 2006, 04:46:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 11 May 2006, 04:29:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'Y')ou deny the harsh reality of the end of the oil age by calling it a non-event.


What harsh reality? What in the world are you talking about? With the possible exception of a slight uptick in energy prices, nothing whatsoever is happening. The economy is booming. Growth is robust. Times are good.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes such "unpleasantness" frighten you so much that you try to just will it away?


What "unpleasantness" are you prattling on about? People having to pay a few more bucks at the pump? That's hardly a crisis. In fact, it's not even a problem. High gas prices are good, not bad.

Of course, if you're referring to spooky stuff like the dollar collapse and die-off etc. etc., perhaps I should remind you that those events haven't happened yet, and thus cannot be called "reality". They're more like "fantasy" or "hype".

The reality is that nothing particularly unpleasant is happening, but you can't handle that. So you retreat into deep denial, suckling at the tit of media hype which nourishes you with reassuring messages that everything is collapsing, even though nothing is actually happening.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby PolestaR » Thu 11 May 2006, 04:34:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I')'ve seen egocentrism before, but nothing like this. It appears to be a studied and self-willed personal isolation. You appear to be incapable of empathy. Where did this come from, JD?


Go back to church. Show me one case where empathy helps someone when they perform no physical action from it and someone else doesn't notice the empathy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'Y')ou deny the horrors of Iraq by calling it a TV show. You deny the harsh reality of the end of the oil age by calling it a non-event. Does such "unpleasantness" frighten you so much that you try to just will it away?


If there was no media to tell you of events in lands which you could not observe then you would not know either. Moron. Why don't you read his posts instead of reacting to them.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Thu 11 May 2006, 05:16:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Come on, Sameu, defend yourself! Dollar won't crash? Who cares! What does that have to do with PO?


are you talking to me?

if so, please rephrase because you make no sense

Sorry.
I was referring to:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JD', '
')"Before you make that bet on the collapse of the US$, you might want to check in with the last bozo who got into a prediction stand-off with JohnDenver:

--- [dein Foto or alias-Foto here] ---

"Full blown dollar collapse I think will be mid 2005-early 2006." -- Skateari

You (or whoever Skateari is) called a collapse in the US-Dollar. There were many, many investors short on the US-Dollar at the time, at the "End" of a ca. 35% slalom collapse of the dollar to Euro.

I'm still bearish on the US-Dollar. The fundamentals haven't changed since Sept. 2004. The Dollar-Bubble is still there. In the last couple days it gives the appearence that it might just burst.

As long as interest rates are still rising, however, it probably won't burst (see fed decision yesterday). The question is only one of timing. This week? In two years? I made money on the last dollar fall/Euro rise, we'll see how the timing is this time.

BTW, the dollar (and all currency!) has collapsed in comparison to gold...
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Corpsicle » Thu 11 May 2006, 05:19:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')More fantastic with every post.


One might even say it has gotten to the point where it becomes inappropriate to legitimize such views by dignifying them with a response.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Thu 11 May 2006, 05:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '2')) Give me an objektive measure of "Pain" associated with PO, (YES, body count, for instance) and I'll leave you be.


Dom, sure let's go with body count. How many people are dying as a result of peak oil, right now?

JD, who's talking about right now?!!! How many years AGO did oil peak?!!!

PAIN comes AFTER peak, not before it.

If you want to measure body count (world wide deaths accounted to energy shortage (like freezing), war, famine) then the timeframe of the bet will have to be more like 15 years. That's about how long it was for Ehrlich/Simon, btw.

Still waiting for a good (better) preposal for an objective index from the other posters.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Corpsicle » Thu 11 May 2006, 05:29:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')How many people are dying as a result of peak oil, right now?


Oh allright, I'll bite out of boredom and because your tactics are so transparent you become funny.

Nobody has ever, nor will ever, die "because of peak oil", in the same way that nobody dies out of poverty, or perhaps more illustrative, falling from great heights.

Keep up the jokes, kid.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Corpsicle » Thu 11 May 2006, 05:37:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'S')till waiting for a good (better) preposal for an objective index from the other posters.


You have already been given the perspective of a halt in growing private consumption, as an inflection-point for when lower income-groups in industrialized countries find that the cost of fuels dominate their household budgets.

This as a private economics and expenditures consideration relating to consumer-driven economic growth.

You may also have the view of excess winter deaths.

This as a health- and mortality-indicator relating to cost and scarcity of fossile fuels.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Thu 11 May 2006, 07:23:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Corpsicle', 'Y')ou may also have the view of excess winter deaths.

This as a health- and mortality-indicator relating to cost and scarcity of fossile fuels.

VERY nice statistic.
My bet here would be that the Feb/March peaks would be 50%-100% more deaths than the 2004/5 graph (2.graph: [img src="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/images/charts/574A.gif"]) meaning daily deaths above 3000 in 2013/14.

For instance. (are those enough bodies for you JD? Or do you have a statistic we can bet on in ONE year?)
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Thu 11 May 2006, 08:09:30

Ignorance is bliss. Turn off, tune out, chill out.

That would be cool but hey I am an adult now and not just a young guy partying and have to know more all the time about what is happening. Adam and Eve bit the apple then there was no turning back. I know about PO and all the rest so there is no turning back. Still I don't have to go crazy worrying about it all the time. "Be cool, relax, take it easy."

Before I found out about peak oil I was worried about what the mainstream press was saying about debt problems(babyboomers, social security, etc.) causing collapse of social welfare systems globally.

Obviously just being unaware does not make a problem go away(peak oil, global warming). I mean overpopulation(3rd world) and overconsumption(indiustrial countries) ( call both together "overshoot") are happening today in one form or another everywhere(maybe not in Papua New Guinea) and when you live on the Florida gulf coast in an overmortgaged house with negative equity and have an ARM do you worry more about Hurricane season or the Fed's next rate hike? If you don't read news or watch TV or see internet you worry about none of those so maybe you die happy in the next storm or get a heart attack when your monthly mortgage increase comes ca. mid 1997. Anyway you can't really do anything about the big picture unless you want to become an eco-terrorist(negative) or become a peak oil activist and start a blog or write a peak oil book(positive). Most of us sit like the rabbit watching the car racing towards it and do nothing getting splattered but in the meantime the fear paralyzes it, allowing it to do nothing effective. Maybe it would be better to just tune out under such circumstances and deal with personal life and try to be happy.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Corpsicle » Thu 11 May 2006, 08:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')VERY nice statistic.


Well it's actually not such a direct statistic, as it depends on temperature and availability of old people *cough*.

A better indicator would be the statistics on "fuel poverty" (quick scenarios), of course taken together with temperature - for PAYNE.

This for natural gas (and electricity) in the UK, but with good statistics sources, it can be done for larger regions.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 11 May 2006, 09:27:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Full blown dollar collapse I think will be mid 2005-early 2006." -- Skateari


You (or whoever Skateari is) called a collapse in the US-Dollar. There were many, many investors short on the US-Dollar at the time, at the "End" of a ca. 35% slalom collapse of the dollar to Euro.

I'm still bearish on the US-Dollar. The fundamentals haven't changed since Sept. 2004. The Dollar-Bubble is still there. In the last couple days it gives the appearence that it might just burst.

As long as interest rates are still rising, however, it probably won't burst (see fed decision yesterday). The question is only one of timing. This week? In two years? I made money on the last dollar fall/Euro rise, we'll see how the timing is this time.

BTW, the dollar (and all currency!) has collapsed in comparison to gold...


Dom, now you're talking like the collapse of the dollar is just a routine event. The dollar collapsed a few years ago, then it recovered, but now it is currently collapsed relative to gold blah blah...

In other words, there is nothing at all apocalyptic about the word "collapse" as you use it. It's a classic doomer backpedal. You redefine "collapse" to mean what everybody else just calls a routine slump. You know.. "The DOW collapsed by 100 points yesterday". It's a nice way to salvage the scary rhetoric while concealing the fact that nothing particularly scary is happening.

Let's cut the bull here, Dom, and get quantitative. You bet in FIVE years that:
- not only will the housing bubble have burst, but the US will be in an enormous recession with rising fuel prices after the collapse of the US Dollar.

So what do you call a "collapse" Dom? Currently the yen/dollar is at about 110. What's it going to be after your so-called "collapse" of the dollar?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 11 May 2006, 09:49:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '.')..I agree. In fact, I suspect John Denver is being a devil's advocate. He doesn't really think that peak oil isn't happening, he just wants to make discussions more interesting.


After sleeping on it, I've come to the conclusion that you're right. It's a hobby. He's just havin' a little fun with us.

Good job, JD. You had us going for a while there.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby lorenzo » Thu 11 May 2006, 11:34:17

John Denver wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, once you're in this de-media-fied state, tell me how much of an event the Iraq war is. Odds are, you won't perceive it at all. This is because it never had any real effects on you in the first place, except as media hype.


I suspect John Denver is a keen reader of Baudrillard's work, and more particularly of his famous and brilliant little book The Gulf War Did Not Take Place, showing how, indeed, the Gulf War (and the Iraq War) was a total non-event, in the literal sense of the word.

It did not take place as it was wrapped entirely in "hyperreality", in a media-bubble, it was hype only. We watched it on TV, while eating chips and drinking a coke, having a laugh. But it never affected us, it never was "real" and it never will be. The Gulf War and the Iraq War are a pure simulacrum, a representation of a representation, where Hollywood and Reality TV fuse, but which remains cut off from the Real.

Baudrillard's sharp analysis of how our contemporary technocratic, media-saturated world works, about what an "event" really is, and about how we are permanently cut off from reality, is very interesting to understand Peak Oil.

Peak Oil is something entirely created out of nothing, on websites, blogs, forums, by anyone who wants to participate... It is not "happening", it will never "happen", it is merely something that exists in a virtual space.

It is a non-event on which everyone can project his own fears, his fantasies, his desires (about die-offs, crisis, war, etc...). Precisely because it's such an empty signifier, a mere simulacrum, Peak Oil is never going to "happen".


In "reality", we will go beyond oil without anyone of us noticing it, because the reality that will make this transition "happen" is too boring; you can't build a website about it, you can't write a best-seller about it; the Real is the countless silent anonymous people who are producing, inventing, developing and implementing all the little "real" steps out there, from energy conservation efforts over designing efficient lamps to better ICEngines, to producing cellulosic ethanol, to creating better sensor systems, etc... --- this is the Real, but it is too boring. The media can't do anything with a guy who developed a new carbon-foam lead acid battery pack.

That's why there will never be a real Peak Oil "event". Peak Oil is pure virtuality, a fantasy world. It sells well now, but it will never be Real.
Last edited by lorenzo on Thu 11 May 2006, 11:39:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Jeroen » Thu 11 May 2006, 11:35:09

ehm... I don't think he retired..he posted something today.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Corpsicle » Thu 11 May 2006, 12:03:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'P')eak Oil is pure virtuality, a fantasy world.


Okay, let's run with the gang of comedic geniouses for a second here.

Can you show me how peak oil is not affecting your life right now?

Huh?
Huh?
Huh?

Can you prove it? Huh?

No that's not a good enough proof. You are wrong and I am right. In addition, it is a conspiracy by the media and the lefties - god I hate the lefties - and the jew-phone ringing all day long, and the hippies, and look now, if a problem can be solved in theory it will be solved in reality because WE ARE GOD just look at the knowledge-based economy of the dot.com bubble bursting for proof and we'll get to the moon with little tiny jetpacks IN OUR LIFETIME I swear it listen to me I have all the answers it is simple I just deny that people I don't agree with could possibly have any relevant points of view especially if I don't like them and there is that damn jew-phone ringing again it is OPEC they just want to let me know they are still enforcing quotas and therefore they are fixing the price of oil and we should nuke them all already and breeder reactors are the future and then fusion by golly full speed ahead and damn the torpedos nobody have ever succeeded in anything by thinking negatively ergo positivism is constructive QED which incidentally rhymes with IED which is yet another constructive application of modern technology what with mobile phones and if we fill Iraq with mobile phones they will in time trickle down into the oilfields and reach a singularity in which oil and charged batteries will burst from the ground because you can't hold back progress
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