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peakoildebunked retires

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby MfromAmsterdam » Mon 08 May 2006, 12:05:33

SoothSayer,

in all fairness I did take precautions. there are places where I can go to. I have good gear and 1 month to eat at home.

but lately I've become much more nuanced. some places are already bad (Zimbabwe etc.) and will depopulate.

on the other hand, other areas will thrive. maybe even Holland. PO is recognized by the Dutch elite. there is a taskforce, headed by the head of Shell Holland, that is setting up a Delta-plan for a transition away from fossil fueles.

the plan is named after the project that secured us from the seas.

they identified 80 projects/trajects which we could follow for different aspects of the entire problem with PO. 25 will be chosen and carried out.

at least here it is out and in the open. in the 8 o clock news, extra items afterwards, in the quality newspapers etc. and it is made clear to the populace that changes will and MUST come because the stuff is running out.

really lots of projects going on. but are they on time? that's the question.

anyhow: plan for the worst, hope for the best, accept the outcome.

best to all,

michel
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby sameu » Mon 08 May 2006, 13:15:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MfromAmsterdam', 'S')oothSayer,

in all fairness I did take precautions. there are places where I can go to. I have good gear and 1 month to eat at home.

but lately I've become much more nuanced. some places are already bad (Zimbabwe etc.) and will depopulate.

on the other hand, other areas will thrive. maybe even Holland. PO is recognized by the Dutch elite. there is a taskforce, headed by the head of Shell Holland, that is setting up a Delta-plan for a transition away from fossil fueles.

the plan is named after the project that secured us from the seas.

they identified 80 projects/trajects which we could follow for different aspects of the entire problem with PO. 25 will be chosen and carried out.

at least here it is out and in the open. in the 8 o clock news, extra items afterwards, in the quality newspapers etc. and it is made clear to the populace that changes will and MUST come because the stuff is running out.

really lots of projects going on. but are they on time? that's the question.

anyhow: plan for the worst, hope for the best, accept the outcome.

best to all,

michel


yes all great stuff, I saw the program too.

Just one minor problem: they were talking about energy in 2050

when it's 2050 we'll all have crashed and burned, they should be talking about 2010, but of course, you can't switch to alternatives in five years now can we?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Mon 08 May 2006, 14:09:17

Oh, no! Now the Belgian is taking on the Dutchman.

Sam, are you from Flanders (what part) or from Wallonia? Do you speak Dutch (sorry, Flemish) or French?
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby venky » Mon 08 May 2006, 14:12:40

I enjoyed JD's blog from time to time and he made some good points now and again. However at the end I felt that he began to fall into the same reasoning employed by the doomers that he was arguing against. That is use any fact or argument, however misleading to justify one's agenda, while ignoring any counter argument completely.

Also hanging up his boots claiming Peak Oil is a non-event when oil has crosse $3.00/gallon, we know of serious problem regarding high prices in southeast Asia, and while the geo-political situation might trigger an energy crisis anyday, is I think rather disingenuous.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Wildwell » Mon 08 May 2006, 14:50:28

That’s very hurtful that. :(

Pstarr, I think that’s a little disingenuous. JD can give as ‘good as he gets’ and is quite capable or presenting the ‘other side’ of the story, much the same as some of the skilled operators this side. Having written quite a few of the posts on POD myself, I do take offence that it was done for sycophantic reasons. The rhetoric on here on the beating of drums gets pretty loud too you know? JD was ticked off by a number of people, including me, for attacks on prominent PO bugles and it was one of the reasons I chose not to contribute to the blog.

One should be open minded to the area under discussion and not get into this business of ‘belief’. It’s not a feckin cult, well, you would trust not. Once you get into pushing the business of agendas it serves no real purpose. As you well know, the metal is crashing between Lorenzo and I over bio fuels, really because I want to get down to brass tacks, rather just ‘buy into it’, which I would if I thought it was a good thing.

We should be interested in fact and objective truth - otherwise there is a propensity for anyone associated with the subject to look like a banana. There are after all two sides to every story, and it’s up to the reader to make up their own mind. JD’s blog is the other side of the story, it might be just as wrong as the opposing group - it’s up to the grand jury to decide. We should welcome debate, not stifle it.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Wildwell » Mon 08 May 2006, 15:22:45

Well no, JD isn’t wholly objective, who is? I see him no worse than someone like Monte, and for the record I have respect for them both. Another one of the reasons I stopped writing for POD was I thought that it was getting less objective and into the business of attacks on people, even conspiracy at times, certainly verging into the bounds of science fiction. Nevertheless, he does like it not, make some valid points. There’s an awful lot of faux scientific debate over on this channel too, and some of the commentary is grasping at straws: Such like as: Oh look the truckers are going on strike, the whole industry is going bust and we’ll starve. This is just patently untrue, and probably a result of spin from those that have been wounded.

Lorenzo is a different kettle of fish. To me he’s an airy fairy socialist, alright I’ll take it back, verging on a champagne socialist that has got an idea or two, which may or may not be valid. His hate for anything ‘Anglo Saxon’, whole hearted belief that: EU = Good, US = Bad makes me take him less than seriously. In fact very often I think he’s clutching Tony Blair’s golden balls in that avatar of his.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby arretium » Mon 08 May 2006, 15:50:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('toadster', '.')..he thinks peak oil is a NON-EVENT. I think he's right too.


So this planet is just a big ball of oil with a dirt and rock shell around it? The supply is, for all intents and purposes, infinite, and we'll always be able to pump as much out of the oil ball as we want?

I mean, it must be like that for the failure of supply to meet demand to be a NON-EVENT, right?


Your post is an unfortunate example of what's wrong with this site. Someone states that he thinks the cornocupians are right and people essentially slam him. When one of the cornos do the same (slam back), everyone belittles that person. I personally find it distasteful and unhelpful on both sides.

The way to win is through facts and argument, not ridicule with "just a big ball of oil". Do you honestly expect to convince someone of the superiorness of your argument after you just got done belittling the person?

Look, the facts are on your side. Just focus on the facts. The bottom line is that based on known data, we've gone through over 1/2 of the world's oil supply. It's undisputed. The only way the cornos change the argument is by saying that there is more oil out there. And there is. There just isn't as much as they say there is.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 08 May 2006, 16:30:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', '.')..The bottom line is that based on known data, we've gone through over 1/2 of the world's oil supply...


If you went through all the threads and posts in this forum, I wonder how many times you would see that statement made? Seems pretty redundant at this point to say it yet again.

"Non-event" (I'll refrain from the all-caps stuff) is JD's term, which is so patently absurd it invites ridicule. If the event will never happen, then he must be saying that production will never peak, which can only mean that the supply is infinite. How can we respond seriously to that kind of abiotic oil lunacy?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby arretium » Mon 08 May 2006, 16:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', '.')..The bottom line is that based on known data, we've gone through over 1/2 of the world's oil supply...


If you went through all the threads and posts in this forum, I wonder how many times you would see that statement made? Seems pretty redundant at this point to say it yet again.


And yet that's exactly what you have to keep doing. Reinforcement is everything. You can't expect people to go and read up on all the old threads that are stewing in your head and not their's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Non-event" (I'll refrain from the all-caps stuff) is JD's term, which is so patently absurd it invites ridicule.


Which is exactly where I disagree with you. It doesn't invite ridicule. To ridicule them for their position is to turn their mind away. It doesn't serve the purpose of helping educate people on peak oil, it does the opposite. Your method of communication is ineffective.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If the event will never happen, then he must be saying that production will never peak, which can only mean that the supply is infinite. How can we respond seriously to that kind of abiotic oil lunacy?


You respond with facts. You respond with arguments. You don't respond with sarcasm, santimonious lectures, and ridicule. Too many people here respond with the latter and get no where convincing others. Many people here get understandibly frustrated and start ridiculing. I know I've done it. But if you want to win your argument, stick to the facts. Let him be the one that resorts to ridicule. When the person starts ridiculing, that's when they lose.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 May 2006, 16:46:54

It’s unfortunate I think that people in general are so willing to dismiss arguments that go against their belief in the team without a second thought - perhaps the internet is like the big SUV that makes people forget the manners they learned when 5 years old.

I was one of the original doomers on this site and I give credit to JD for his many arguments, which have caused me to be somewhat less pessimistic.

In fact I nominated him as a moderator here at one point because I felt the site – and the entire subject, needed a balanced approach to be credible. The attacks on folks with ideas to the contrary of accepted PO beliefs – and they are beliefs regardless of the source cited, are the main reason I remain as pessimistic as I am.

Aaron said be afraid of PO but more afraid of your neighbors reaction; this thread is proof of that idea.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 08 May 2006, 17:07:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'Y')ou respond with facts.


Looking at my response again, I don't think it was anything like as sarcastic as you seem to. Compared to so many responses we've seen posted around here, it makes me wonder why you cut mine out of the herd to apply a branding iron to.

How would you have responded to the "NON-EVENT" remark? Do you at least agree that JD and toadster apparently feel the supply of oil is infinite? How else could PO be a "non-event"?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby arretium » Mon 08 May 2006, 17:52:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'Y')ou respond with facts.


Looking at my response again, I don't think it was anything like as sarcastic as you seem to. Compared to so many responses we've seen posted around here, it makes me wonder why you cut mine out of the herd to apply a branding iron to.

How would you have responded to the "NON-EVENT" remark? Do you at least agree that JD and toadster apparently feel the supply of oil is infinite? How else could PO be a "non-event"?


Zardoz -

I am a bit sorry to single you out versus anyone else. I'll tell you I read about a page and 1/2 of essentially the same thing: "this guy is an idiot and let's ridicule him" before I finally go tired of it. Your post just happened to be in the right place at the right time. ;).

My thoughts certainly apply to all the other posts here as well.

As for my position, I'm a peak oiler. I think we've already peaked. I think it's time to get serious about solutions. Err.. I think it was time to get serious about solutions 12 years ago. I think that there are some great ideas that could mitigate peak oil, but I haven't seen anything that will diminish it completely.

Am I a Kunstlerite? No. I think he's got some great points about Suburbia, but I don't share his vision of doom. I do like the sort of cult like status he has reached.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 08 May 2006, 18:02:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')How would you have responded to the "NON-EVENT" remark? Do you at least agree that JD and toadster apparently feel the supply of oil is infinite? How else could PO be a "non-event"?


PO could be a non event if by the time production starts a serious decline, people are already tired of using oil; having moved on to a different way-o-life.

There's all kinds of ways that could happen, and I'm not even saying it *will* happen; but it is certainly a possibility.

Heck, maybe it already is happening, last night I saw a cool Toyota commercial. Its message was simple, "I'm cool, affordable, and I am very fuel efficient too."

Edit: Car was the Yaris
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby sameu » Mon 08 May 2006, 21:25:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'O')h, no! Now the Belgian is taking on the Dutchman.

Sam, are you from Flanders (what part) or from Wallonia? Do you speak Dutch (sorry, Flemish) or French?


ROFL :-D

I'm from Antwerp, Flanders. So yes I speak Flemisch (practicly the same as Dutch, only we speak more correct, and they use funny words :-p)

Anyway, since it's the same language, I saw that documentary too. It really seems they're waking up. It's a taskforce of 200 people (academici, bussiness men, researchers,...) who are all saying the same: we need some serious changes if we want to keep the light burning.

But I'm afraids this is stuff for the folder 'too little too late'
They're talking about it. Implementing the shit on a huge scale is something else!

edit: Et oui, je parle aussi un petit peu français
und ein bisschen Deutsch , super geil klasse! :-)
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby sameu » Mon 08 May 2006, 21:39:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')How would you have responded to the "NON-EVENT" remark? Do you at least agree that JD and toadster apparently feel the supply of oil is infinite? How else could PO be a "non-event"?


PO could be a non event if by the time production starts a serious decline, people are already tired of using oil; having moved on to a different way-o-life.

There's all kinds of ways that could happen, and I'm not even saying it *will* happen; but it is certainly a possibility.

Heck, maybe it already is happening, last night I saw a cool Toyota commercial. Its message was simple, "I'm cool, affordable, and I am very fuel efficient too."

Edit: Car was the Yaris


yeah, maybe in 5 years or so people will say, hell we dissed alternatives for like ever, but now we're tired of oil, let's do that bio and wind thingie

the only reason why society will implement alternatives, is not because they care about the environment or are tired of using oil; it will be because they are forced to, cause alternatives won't be 'alaternative', but they will be the only thing left

I can't see how you could qualify this as a non-event.

Yeah maybe that drugaddict will wake up and say, hmm drugs are bad and I'm tired of these sweet fixes, let's do someting else, not
And I bet he won't qualify his rehab as a non-event
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby CARVER » Mon 08 May 2006, 21:40:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') came to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.


Following that reasoning, 9-11, Katrina, the tsunami, the earthquakes, war in Iraq, etc. are non-events to him as well, because those did not have a significant impact on his daily life either (I presume).

Anyway, the discussions about what is going to happen usually are tiresome, noone can know how everything will unfold and what the outcome will be. I think it would be better to come up with possible scenarios and try to figure out how likely they are and how important they are, and then try to figure out how to prevent them, prepare for them, try to make it happen. A possible scenario that is unlikely can still be worth discussing when it has huge consequences. Saying a scenario is possible does not mean it is most likely to happen. Discussing those scenarios is a good way to find out if you might have overlooked something. But if you start talking about technology, you are stamped: cornucopian, and if you start talking about a crash, you are stamped: doomer. Also there are a lot of different situations in the world today, a 'doomer' could simply point to the third world and say: see, while the 'cornucopian' could point to the first world and say: see! There are lots of possibilities local and global. There remains a lot of uncertainty, we can't see what's around the corner, so who can proof that we (don't) need to slow down. Knowing what you don't know can also be used for decision making.

Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will. Just because we want something doesn't mean we will actually achieve it, even if it is possible. Ask everyone if he/she wants peace or war. I think almost all would want peace, that doesn't mean we will achieve it, even though it is possible in theory. That's because peace is not the only thing we want. Something that is not necessary in theory, might be likely to give better results in practise. With numbers (statistics) you can calculate what is possible in theory, but for it to be of any use you also need a way to put it in practise. You can say it can be done and point to the numbers that support that claim, but then you still need to go from being possible in theory to being likely in practise. The latter is usually open to debate. In my opinion a lot of the 'debunking' was more about putting up different possible scenarios (which might be preferred, but therefore not more important or likely), arguing that a possible scenario is unlikely (which does not necessarily mean that it is not important), and showing that something is not necessary in theory (which does not necessarily mean that it is not needed in practise to get the results). Both sides make assumptions to move the other towards the extreme end of the spectrum, and then argue endlessly, but when you look at their actions both are basically doing the same things.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby CARVER » Mon 08 May 2006, 21:54:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'B')ut I'm afraids this is stuff for the folder 'too little too late' They're talking about it. Implementing the shit on a huge scale is something else!


Well there is a lot of positive energy coming from the document, so if we could tap into that we would be in the clear :)
But the current government has already said that they won't do anything with it, but said the next government should (Which will not be the same bunch if it is up to me). So we can basically delay it by a year already :oops: (I say new elections today)
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