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peakoildebunked retires

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Zardoz » Wed 10 May 2006, 01:25:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..Yah, yah... I eat dweebs like you for breakfast. If you want to make a prediction here, then make one. What exactly is going to be happening next year, Zardoz?

I say that because I am going to make an example of you. I am making a note in my calendar right now to meet you here, in one year's time. So put your money where your mouth is, poser. What's going to happen in one years time? How will our discussions be "very different"?


Wow!

I see what you folks mean about this dude! I hadn't paid much attention to him before, so I had no idea.

Oy, vey...
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 10 May 2006, 01:36:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..Yah, yah... I eat dweebs like you for breakfast. If you want to make a prediction here, then make one. What exactly is going to be happening next year, Zardoz?

I say that because I am going to make an example of you. I am making a note in my calendar right now to meet you here, in one year's time. So put your money where your mouth is, poser. What's going to happen in one years time? How will our discussions be "very different"?


Wow!

I see what you folks mean about this dude! I hadn't paid much attention to him before, so I had no idea.

Oy, vey...


Nice dodge poser. Didn't have the guts to answer, didja? LOL
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 10 May 2006, 01:47:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')xponential growth is not a fairy tale. Reality is that things look good until the 29th day. It appears you have time. You don't. Overnight, things go from ok to untenable.


Really? So are you predicting that things will become untenable overnight? When is this going to happen?

It seems like you're a little mixed up Monte. On the one hand, you keep talking about a "slow decline" which takes decades or even centuries, and yet here you're talking about things going haywire "overnight". Which is it?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 10 May 2006, 02:04:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shadizar', 'A')re you so afraid of change that you cannot accept it is coming? The world is a different place than it was. The world will be a different place that it was before (or is now). I simply cannot understand your view that the world will maintain the status quo. NO ONE believes that.


I never said the world will maintain the status quo. It clearly won't. I'm just saying that the changes you refer to will occur at such a smooth, glacial pace that there's no sense worrying about it. The change will appear to the layman as a non-event.

You know what you guys remind me of? You're like one of those mass media tent cities that springs up for the O.J. Simpson trial etc. You've got all the cameras and the mikes and the talking heads and the live feeds and the crawls running across the screen.

Except you guys are "covering" the formation of the Grand Canyon. "Oh my God, folks, the Colorado River has scarred down into the rock layers by another 0.001cm today!!! This is extremely worrisome because the rate is ACCELERATING!!! We've got experts on the scene analyzing the situation with state-of-the-art microscopes. Stay tuned for minute-to-minute updates on the deepening of the Grand Canyon throughout the afternoon."

There's a major disconnect between the speed of the phenomenon you're following and the intensity of the coverage.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby SoothSayer » Wed 10 May 2006, 04:02:09

Really? So are you predicting that things will become untenable overnight? When is this going to happen?

JD, I'm not sure how Peak Oil will pan out.

However having demand & supply so closely matched (mismatched) is very worrying - irrespective of the cause.

For example, last winter natural gas in the UK was EXTREMELY short ... and it provides 40% of our electricity and most of our home heating.

The production data, import data & storage data is available real-time in the UK so I tracked it every morning.

We were about 1 day from power cuts before the icy weather moved away ... very, very close.

However major industrial users were quietly turned off with very little publicity. I believe one or two have now closed down due to the higher gas prices.

Commerical natural gas prices QUADRUPLED for a while during the cold period.

Our "friends" in Europe failed to supply us with gas via a pipeline ... despite agreements and our offers to pay HUGE prices ... they decided to keep it to keep THEIR countries warm. Also, the presence of long-term fixed agreements blocked short term emergency deals.

A bidding war for LNG ships at sea broke out and many of our incoming ships didn't appear! However the UK "hijacked" a ship destined for the US from Trinidad. This ship crossed the Atlantic because the price the UK offered was so high.

The government was supposed to issue a public warning when we got down to ONE days buffer stocks- but "forgot "to do this. They were VERY lucky that the weather eased. The public could have indeed found that the situation had changed overnight ..

The point I'm making is that the long term NG availability etc was NOT the issue ... the closeness of supply & demand was the issue.

Without any buffer stocks governments start to behave dishonourably and prices go wild. Also, even being prepared to pay for the fuel does NOT mean that you will always get it.

Now let's extend the argument to crude oil - what do we see?
Yes, demand & supply very closely matched. A cold winter totally disrupted the UK's natural gas situation ... so a similar situation or event could easily do the same to the world's oil markets.

Bad storms, terrorism, political strife, war could all kick the oil market "over the edge" ... and it would be quick, if the UK gas situation is a valid comparison.

So ... who needs to care about Peak Oil as a concept ... simply the supply constraints are VERY worrying.

The "doomers" may get what they fear (or want) anytime in the next year or two simply because of the supply shortfall ... and any disturbance could last a long time.

At least the UK was saved (this time) by the arrival of warmer weather.

I am trying to avoid "doomerism" ... but the current situation is somewhat worrying irrespective of one's views on Peak Oil ...
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 10 May 2006, 04:38:46

Early stages of PO denile:

1. Theres' no problem, technology will fix everything.

2. There is a problem, but it's SO far into the future it won't matter to me.

3. Hang on a minute, thats' a crock I kept telling myself so I can avoid any responsibility what-so-ever for the mess we're in, this really is going to matter to me.


You've reached #2 JD, keep going.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 05:17:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') came to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.


Following that reasoning, 9-11, Katrina, the tsunami, the earthquakes, war in Iraq, etc. are non-events to him as well, because those did not have a significant impact on his daily life either (I presume).


Yes, that's correct. Most of you folks are profoundly and sadly addicted to the media news cycle, so it's hard for you to understand... Nevertheless, all the "events" you cite are nothing but media events. They might as well be fictional stories...

Tell my sister, who just happens to live in New Orleans, that Katrina was news hype.

RISING OIL PRICES ARE A NON-EVENT. FALLING PRODUCTION WILL HIT LIKE A HAMMER.

Or have you forgotten to read McKillop?
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Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 05:58:56

BTW, those of us living in Germany began to "sweat" as Putin turned off the gas this winter. This was, for me, the first real PO-(non)event. It's all downhill from here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o put your money where your mouth is, poser. What's going to happen in one years time? How will our discussions be "very different"?

Ok, I'll play Ehrlich and you can play Simon, JD.

I bet in FIVE years that:
- not only will the housing bubble have burst, but the US will be in an enormous recession with rising fuel prices after the collapse of the US Dollar.
- that the price of oil will be at least twice as high (50% for yen).
- that today's 84mbd all liquids will be be under 80mbd.
- that both Russia and Saudi Arabia will produce less oil than today.
- that it will begin to hurt even in YOUR daily life.

How do you want to measure the difference? How much money are you willing to put down?

Cheers, Dom
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Doly » Wed 10 May 2006, 06:29:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')How do you want to measure the difference? How much money are you willing to put down?


I suggest that, as in the famous bet, the difference is paid based on oil prices. Say, the loser pays the winner the difference in price between now and five years time of x barrels of oil. You decide how many barrels you feel comfortable with.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 06:38:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')How do you want to measure the difference? How much money are you willing to put down?

I suggest that, as in the famous bet, the difference is paid based on oil prices. Say, the loser pays the winner the difference in price between now and five years time of x barrels of oil. You decide how many barrels you feel comfortable with.

I'll bet one thousand barrels. You pick the currency. (Rubble, for instance:-)

I'll wait for the suggestion of an objective measure of PAIN offered by JD, though.

For I know that JD doesn't bet on prices. He's made that clear many times.

Cheers, Dom
This is the way the world ends,
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Aaron » Wed 10 May 2006, 07:20:33

Sure it seems like a non-event... to you.

What's the worst effect of scarcity?

Market crash?

Poverty?

Inconvenience?

It's how people & their institutions react to depletion that matters most. The poor will suffer first... always do.

A non-event?

Tell that to my countrymen who will perish in Iraq today fighting for pole-position in the oil-rich middle east.

JD & company make the mistake of thinking people are as intelligent and informed as they are.

They are not...

We have fought for centuries... we fight today.

In the struggle for hydrocarbon domination there is no second place.

Bring a mop.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 07:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')ure it seems like a non-event... to you.

What's the worst effect of scarcity?

Market crash?

Poverty?

Inconvenience?

Aaron, do you have a suggestion for an objective measure of the negative effects of PO? Unemployment rate, for instance?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby JohnDenver » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:01:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'S')o put your money where your mouth is, poser. What's going to happen in one years time? How will our discussions be "very different"?

Ok, I'll play Ehrlich and you can play Simon, JD.

I bet in FIVE years that:

What's this FIVE years crap? I didn't say anything about 5 years. I said one year. I want you to take those years one at a time, so you can be wrong 5 times in 5 years, not just once. What's going to happen in one years time, Dom?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') not only will the housing bubble have burst, but the US will be in an enormous recession with rising fuel prices after the collapse of the US Dollar.


Before you make that bet on the collapse of the US$, you might want to check in with the last bozo who got into a prediction stand-off with JohnDenver:
Image
"Full blown dollar collapse I think will be mid 2005-early 2006." -- Skateari LINKY

You see, that's the problem with your f*cking predictions Dom. They don't mean anything. You get one wrong, you just whip out another. You guys rip off predictions like they were squares of toilet paper.

I'd like to see you make a prediction with some real stakes. How about if you cut your finger off live on the internet if you're wrong? :o
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby venky » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:08:20

Starting to look like the old days again.........the long flame threads between JD and MQ and the other doomers :lol:
I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.

Only Man is vile.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:18:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'W')hat's this FIVE years crap?

ONE year is within the statistical margin of error.

Example: Dow (yes, of Dow-Jones) called the market top in Spring of 1927. One year later, markets were even HIGHER. Three years later they had given up 50%.

Calling a market top or betting on a particular price in the future (as you yourself have pointed out) has made many a man very poor in the past. Therefore I'll decline with the one year thing.

Example II: 1986 I left the oil patch, telling myself that prices would take 30 years to recover.
20 years later, I'm more than willing to tell you It didn't take quite that long. I gladly admit, I was wrong :o

Now, before we bargain on the length of time and/or whether we cut our d*cks off live on internet or not: WHAT IS YOUR OBJEKTIVE UNIT OF MEASURE?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Aaron » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:20:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'S')ure it seems like a non-event... to you.

What's the worst effect of scarcity?

Market crash?

Poverty?

Inconvenience?

Aaron, do you have a suggestion for an objective measure of the negative effects of PO? Unemployment rate, for instance?


Probably impossible to quantify in specifics.

I agree with Matt Simmons.

We face a situation similar to 1938. There is a critical juncture coming. Long before we face true poverty, the global competition for energy will force conflict first upon the poor nations... then everyone else.

Unemployment?

Tell that to the guy in the foxhole next to you.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 08:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'S')tarting to look like the old days again.........the long flame threads between JD and MQ and the other doomers :lol:

Sorry, don't consider myself a doomer - unless you compare me to JD, of course.

My belief that the US economy will collapse (soon - before 2010) is based on demographics and not on Peak Oil. Without PO it might would just look like the malaise in Japan in the 1990s. I've had this opinion since about 1995.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Zardoz » Wed 10 May 2006, 09:46:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '.')..Please, JD, explain to us how things will continue to be "non-eventful" when we are deep into the era of demand badly outstripping supply, which could well start this winter, if the IEA supply and demand charts are correct:

World Oil Supply

World Oil Demand

If the projected 4th Quarter 2006 demand figure is correct, yet we are still stuck at the 84 million BPD plateau, then we will officially be into what amounts to everybody's definition of PO, won't we? By this time next year, in that case, you and all the rest of us will be having very different discussions, won't we?

See you then.


This appears to have really set you off, JD. What is it about this post that bothers you so much? Are those charts as scary to you as they are to me and the rest of us?

Judging from what's going on in the markets, it could be that they've got the energy traders plenty nervous, too.

Sincerely -

Poser Dweeb
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Peak_Plus » Wed 10 May 2006, 09:50:05

Dear Poser Dweeb,

since Aaron doesn't want to give an Objective and JD probably altready went to bed or went out with one of his two friends in Japan, do you want to offer an objective "index" on how to measure the PAIN of PO?

Cheers,
Dom
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Postby Zardoz » Wed 10 May 2006, 10:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'D')ear Poser Dweeb,

since Aaron doesn't want to give an Objective and JD probably altready went to bed or went out with one of his two friends in Japan, do you want to offer an objective "index" on how to measure the PAIN of PO?


Hmmm.

Yeah, how do we actually quantify the pain of Peak Oil? Do we somehow add up the various economic indices and arrive at some sort of number or something?

Beats me, although as a Southern Californucopian, I can say that a reduction in traffic around here will be an indication that the suffering has begun. If we're not in our damned cars, it will only be because we're hurting.

This is a very good question. One wonders why it hasn't been brought up before. You should start a thread on it.
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