[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gorm', 'S')tarvid: what more do you have to use to make fertilazers?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gorm', 'S')tarvid: what more do you have to use to make fertilazers?

[Gorm]

Then I dont see that there ever will be a fertilizer-crisis. Even if it will be more exepnsive to make them, they can and will be made.

[Doly]

That's always been my point: nobody is going to stop making fertilizers. Especially when you think that we aren't running out of oil, only cheap oil. If fertilizers become more expensive, so be it, but nobody is going to stop using them. A lot of other things would have to go before anybody considers cutting on fertilizers.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')hat's always been my point: nobody is going to stop making fertilizers. Especially when you think that we aren't running out of oil, only cheap oil. If fertilizers become more expensive, so be it, but nobody is going to stop using them. A lot of other things would have to go before anybody considers cutting on fertilizers.

[sameu]

well, that surely puts things in perspective

[Gorm]

But that is problably because the farmers get so lousy pay for their products. That will change if/when food become more scarce, and then pprices will rise.

The costs of fertilizers are only expensive in comparison to what they give in return. If prices rise 10-fold and fertilizers 4 -fold, they are in fact becoming cheaper for the farmer in comparison.

[wilburke]

While JD continues arguing with himself, I thought I'd add some excerpts from Richard Heinberg's July Museletter:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')opsoil: The world's existing soils were generated over thousands and millions of years at a rate averaging an inch per 500 years. The amount of soil available to farmers is now decreasing at an alarming rate, due mostly to wind and water erosion. In the US Great Plains, roughly half the quantity in place at the beginning of the last century is now gone. In Australia, after two centuries of European land-use, more than 70 percent of land has become seriously degraded.2 Erosion is largely a function of tillage, which fractures and loosens soil; thus, as the introduction of fuel-fed tractors has increased the ease of tillage, the rate of soil loss has increased dramatically.....

Grain production per capita: A total of 2,029 million tons of grain were produced globally in 2004; this was a record in absolute numbers. But for the past two decades population has grown faster than grain production, so there is actually less available on a per-head basis. In addition, grain stocks are being drawn down: According to Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute, "in each of the last four . . . years production fell short of consumption. The shortfalls of nearly 100 million tons in 2002 and again in 2003 were the largest on record."3 This trend suggests that the strategy of boosting food production by the use of fossil fuels is already yielding diminishing returns.....

.....given the fact that fossil fuels are non-renewable, it will be increasingly difficult to continue to supply chemical fertilizers in present quantities. Nitrogen can be synthesized using hydrogen produced from the electrolysis of water, with solar or wind power as a source of electricity. But currently no ammonia is being commercially produced this way because of the uncompetitive cost of doing so. To introduce and scale up the process will require many years and considerable investment capital.....

The problems associated with the modern global food system are widely apparent, there is widespread concern over the sustainability of the enterprise, and there is growing debate over the question of how to avoid an agricultural Armageddon. Within this debate two viewpoints have clearly emerged.

The first advises further intensification of industrial food production, primarily via the genetic engineering of new crop and animal varieties. The second advocates ecological agriculture in its various forms - including organic, biodynamic, Permaculture, and Biointensive methods.....

The transition to a non-fossil-fuel food system will take time. And it must be emphasized that we are discussing a systemic transformation - we cannot just remove oil in the forms of agrochemicals from the current food system and assume that it will go on more or less as it is. Every aspect of the process by which we feed ourselves must be redesigned. And, given the likelihood that global oil peak will occur soon, this transition must occur at a rapid pace, backed by the full resources of national governments.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'H')ehe, listen up fertilizer-people.

Natural gas is used to make fertilizer through steam reforming, but any source of electricity will do. The Norwegians did it until the 80's.

So, No Sir!, fertilizer is not a problem.

[wilburke]

ES, I quoted Heinberg in response to another poster (name withheld, though quite obvious) that claims to represent Heinberg's views on fertilizer, agriculture, etc., and not as a scientific source. Sorry about the confusion, but I think that this is within the basic subject matter of this thread.

By the way, if you want to make a Primitivist angry (and I know a few of them), just tell them that Heinberg is "one of theirs."

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', 'E')S, I quoted Heinberg in response to another poster (name withheld, though quite obvious) that claims to represent Heinberg's views on fertilizer, agriculture, etc., and not as a scientific source. Sorry about the confusion, but I think that this is within the basic subject matter of this thread.

[JohnDenver]

Some fun "oil-based fertilizer" links:

peak oil
"Do you buy food products grown with oil based fertilizers and pesticides, harvested by petroleum fueled vehicles, transported using petroleum, ..."
www.naturalchoice.net/articles/peakoil.htm

democracyforcalifornia.com: California Rolls Toward Hydrogen
"because bio-diesel crops require oil-based fertilizers to produce."
www.democracyforcalifornia.com/blog/arc ... 00637.html

Peak Oil Crisis
"After the Korean war, it had developed a modern farming system depending on machinery and oil-based fertilizers. After the Soviet Union fell, Communist aid ..."
www.oildecline.com/crisis.htm

EcoCity Cleveland | Transportation Choices
"Starvation will abound because oil-based fertilizers we've grown to depend on will be in short supply. Energy wars could erupt to control the remaining oil ..."
www.ecocitycleveland.org/transportation/pd_peak_oil.htm

OilPeaks.com - Dam Or Damn The Nile? Peak Oil Weekly In House ...
"It was decided that oil based fertilizers would now be used to make the fields along the Nile, bloom. In essence, the farmers have lost the power to control ..."
www.oilpeaks.com/week/article4.html

Odeo: The End of the Oil Age
"The food we eat: grown with oil-based fertilizers, pesticides and other
petrochemicals, sowed by oil-powered tractors and machinery. ..."
www.odeo.com/audio/318214/view

Democratize Energy Production--Reclaim Democracy.org
"We even slather oil-based fertilizers and herbicides on our food crops. We have allowed our addictions to overtake our common sense and a good portion of ..."
www.reclaimdemocracy.org/articles_2004/ ... aduke.html

OilPeaks.com - Jobs, Renewable Energy and The Economy. Peak Oil ...
"Gains in employment will happen in farming as oil based fertilizers become increasingly expensive. Hard working organic farmers will have to do more with ..."
www.oilpeaks.com/week/article2.html

Lots more here.

[Gorm]

Well, now the fertilizer problem is local. Oki, U in some states in the US migth have a problem, but are there or are there not enougth land to produce food for US citizien alone? Even if U have to make the fertilizers with electricity instead of NG.

I think that gobally the most nations will suffice if left to their means if given a decade. Oki, maeby standards of living will be reduced, bur really, is it really that importent that we have X nubers of tv-sets, computers, pools and so on, and no time for our familiy?

[Hermes]

Well... to bring this thread back to the original subject...

Having read through the whole thing my opinion is that John Denver is pathetic and profoundly annoying.

In terms of his site: I am constantly looking for evidence that the peak is somehow NOT coming soon... because if it truly is NOT coming soon then if nothing else my stress level would PLUMMET. Furthermore I could just slooooooow down a bit in our family's frantic preparations.

Alas peakoil debunked has been...debunked. I'm glad the pathetic blog site is up though, as further proof that PO IS for real, and that it's happening very soon!