by MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:12:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'C')oal to oil is capable of providing us with 2-4 trillion barrels of oil
Total proven world reserves of coal are estimated to total almost one trillion tons and are projected to last over 200 years at current rates of consumption. This I believe you previously posted was the source for this 2-4 trillion BOE, right?
The US has about 250 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves. According to the EIA figures, we can see that we have 255 years of coal remaining in the year 2000 given our
current rate of consumption. That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90-120 years. However, if we look back in history, we see that there were 300 years of coal reserves in 1988, 1000 years reserves in 1904, and 10,000 years reserves in 1868! As each year goes by, our coal consumption increases and we see that the projection becomes meaningless. And if we suddenly move to a bigger reliance on coal, and coal liquidfaction for gas, then this estimate would surely drop dramatically.
Coal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')able IX shows the expiration times (EET) of the high and the low estimates of U.S. coal reserves for various rates of increase of the rate of production as calculated from the equation for the EET [Eq. (6)]. If we use the conservative smaller estimate of U.S. coal reserves we see that the growth of the rate of consumption will have to be held below 3 % / yr if we want coal to last until our nation's tricentennial. If we want coal to last 200 years, the rate of growth of annual consumption will have to be held below 1 % / yr!
One obtains an interesting insight into the problem if one asks how long beyond the year 1910 could coal production have continued on the curve of exponential growth at the historic rate of 6.69 % / yr of Fig. 4. The smaller estimate of U.S. coal would have been consumed around the year 1967 and the large estimate would have expired around the year 1990. Thus it is clear that the use of coal as an energy source in 1978 and in the years to come is possible only because the growth in the annual production of coal was zero from 1910 to about 1972!
Coal will peak in 30 years utilizing synfuels according to the EIA in 2004, and this was projected before the realization that U.S. gas production had peaked and that growth of LNG would be difficult. Thus, coal will peak even sooner as it's use will increase to replace the loss from NG.
Not a good time to start relying on another soon-to-peak fossil fuel energy source. We will have trouble increasing production just to meet existing infrastructure demand, much less coal to liquids. We are already having transport problems.