[Leanan]

FWIW, here's what David Goodstein of CalTech has to say about coal:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If you turn to coal, we’re now using twice as much energy from oil as we are from coal. So if you want to liquefy coal as a substitute for oil in transportation—which is its most important application—you would have to mine coal at a rate that’s many, many times at the rate of what we’re doing now. But the conversion process is very inefficient. So you’d have to mine much more than that. If you put that together with the growing world population and the fact that the rest of the world wants to increase its standard of living, you realize that the estimates that say we have hundreds of years worth of coal in the ground are wrong by a factor of ten or more. So we will run out of all fossil fuels. Coal will peak just like any natural resource. We will reach the peak for all fossil fuels by the end of the century.

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'T')hey answer to all of these type questions is: we will do it WHEN WE NEED TO.

[lakeweb]

I don't come up with the same numbers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'F')WIW, here's what David Goodstein of CalTech has to say about coal:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If you turn to coal, we’re now using twice as much energy from oil as we are from coal. So if you want to liquefy coal as a substitute for oil in transportation—which is its most important application—you would have to mine coal at a rate that’s many, many times at the rate of what we’re doing now. But the conversion process is very inefficient. So you’d have to mine much more than that. If you put that together with the growing world population and the fact that the rest of the world wants to increase its standard of living, you realize that the estimates that say we have hundreds of years worth of coal in the ground are wrong by a factor of ten or more. So we will run out of all fossil fuels. Coal will peak just like any natural resource. We will reach the peak for all fossil fuels by the end of the century.

[SarahC1975]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'T')hey answer to all of these type questions is: we will do it WHEN WE NEED TO.

[Leanan]

Near as I can tell, that link supports what Goodstein says. When judged on an energy (rather than a weight) basis, coal liquefaction is 55% to 70% efficient.

Your number of 77 years to peak isn't vastly different from his (which is less than 100 years for all fossil fuels), considering that he is taking into account growth in demand.

[lakeweb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', ':')?: Near as I can tell, that link supports what Goodstein says. When judged on an energy (rather than a weight) basis, coal liquefaction is 55% to 70% efficient.

Your number of 77 years to peak isn't vastly different from his (which is less than 100 years for all fossil fuels), considering that he is taking into account growth in demand.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5')5% to 70% is the weight yield.

[Leanan]

Yes, Goodstein goes into this a bit in his book. We really underestimate the cost of building new infrastructure.

We can barely maintain our current infrastructure. Most of it was built when we were flush (before we hit peak in the '70s). Now it's aging, and carrying far heavier loads than we anticipated. But we can't afford to fix it, let alone build all new infrastructure.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', 'O')ur continued reckless use of nitrogen fertilizers will end up killing billions, both through soil degradation and ecological desutruction, hyberbole not withstanding.

[Ludi]

It's both, JD honey. Our conventional agriculture, and thus our food supply, is utterly dependent on synthetic fertilizers, which destroy the soil even while they produce enormous (though temporary) yields.


You need to study up on agriculture, sweetiepie.

[lakeweb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', 'O')ur continued reckless use of nitrogen fertilizers will end up killing billions, both through soil degradation and ecological desutruction, hyberbole not withstanding.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You are causing me consternation and angst. You outwardly seem like a very intelligent and well-meaning person and I initially found your challenge to Pimentel somewhat stimulating. However, given the lame nature of your final mathematical dissection Link to nonsence, your strident personal attacks on Pimentel, and your groovy username and avatar,

[Starvid]

Hehe, listen up fertilizer-people.

Natural gas is used to make fertilizer through steam reforming, but any source of electricity will do. The Norwegians did it until the 80's.

So, No Sir!, fertilizer is not a problem.

[Doly]

Energyspin,

If it's any consolation, I agree with most of your views. And I'm glad that some people here are doing the maths instead of repeating certain "laws" as a mantra, with no numbers or mathematical models to back them.

[Gorm]

Starvid: what more do you have to use to make fertilazers?

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'E')nergyspin,

If it's any consolation, I agree with most of your views. And I'm glad that some people here are doing the maths instead of repeating certain "laws" as a mantra, with no numbers or mathematical models to back them.