[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ews:

· Indonesian energy and mines minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said he will ask OPEC not to cut output at the December 12 meeting in Kuwait.

· Canadian oil output fell 78,000-bpd to 2.952-mbpd in September, also off 113,000-bpd from a year ago. The decline was due to the loss if eastern offshore output because of a gas leak and also a fire at Suncor’s Alberta upgrader.

· BP CEO John Browne said he expects oil prices to drop to $40 in the “medium term” and $20-$35 in the “long term.” BP intends to start production at its Gulf of Mexico Thunderhorse platform in the second half of 2006. The problem has been with bad weather preventing connection to the wells on the seabed.

· MMS update reports 564,229-bpd or 37.62% of US Gulf oil output still shut-in with cumulative lost production since 8/26 of 95.331 million barrels or 17.412% of annual Gulf output. There were also 132 platforms and 1 rig evacuated, or 16.12% of 819 manned platforms and 0.75% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf.

Refinery news:

· Citgo shut an alkylation unit for repairs at its 156,000-bpd Corpus Christi, TX refinery on Monday and was expected to continue until Tuesday morning.

· Shell shut a sulfur recovery unit at its 340,000-bpd Deer Park, TX refinery on Monday during “process adjustments.”

· A boiler malfunctioned at Valero’s 210,000-bpd Texas City, TX refinery on Monday though it didn’t have a significant impact on production and flaring was expected to continue through Tuesday morning.

· Valero plans to add an ultra low-sulfur diesel hydrotreater at its 340,000-bpd Corpus Christi, TX refinery

[Typhoon]

I'm looking for drops across the board, not builds. Let's see what happens. I would be bullish at the moment, but I've been saying that for awhile, and I've been wrong so far! Maybe we will see crude near $50, but I can't imagine that the fundamentals won't support a higher price going ahead into 2006.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '.')..
Last week's low for CLF06 was 56.40 on Nov 18th. I don't think the price will be dipping down to that level again from here on out.
...

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ews:
· Iranian OPEC director Javad Yarjani said output quotas won’t be changed at the December 12 meeting “and we will have to wait for the March meeting.” He called oil prices “satisfactory.”

· UAE oil minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamili said $50 is a fair price for consumers and allows producers to invest in future demand growth. He believes oil markets are well supplied and OPEC has sufficient spare capacity to meet any demand increase.

· Ice storms in Minnesota slowed crude flows on Enbridge’s 4,183-mile, 1.9-mbpd-pipeline system from Canada into the Midwest US Tuesday.

· Louisiana reports 55.7% of oil production or 113,223-bpd has been restored

· MMS update reports 547,223-bpd or 36.48% of US Gulf oil output still shut-in with cumulative lost production since 8/26 of 95.878 million barrels or 17.512% of annual Gulf output. There were also 132 platforms and 1 rig evacuated, or 16.12% of 819 manned platforms and 0.75% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf.

[cube]

What type of trader are YOU???

Anybody want to answer this question? I'll start first

I primarily swing trade (I hold my contract for more then one day...but no more then 10 days). Most of my trades get closed within 3 days. However if I see a good day trade opportunity I'm more then happy to jump on it.

One of the "disadvantages" of swing trading is it takes awhile to "condition" yourself to be able to get a good night's sleep while you've got an open contract wiggling up and down in price overnight. It took me a little bit of practice to get used to this, but I think it fits my personality quite nicely.

We've all heard of the story of the turtle vs. the hare. My style of trading more resembles the "turtle" (slow and steady). I choose trades that do not necessarily have a high potential for profit, but I make up for it by ensuring the probability of success is high.

what's your style?

[joewp]

My style is still developing. I dabble in day trading the mini QM and QG futures, finding marginal success, but not enough confidence to commit more than one contract at a time.

What I find lets me sleep at night is buying "at the money" options a few months out. I know I can only lose the price I paid for the option (like those stupid CLX05 $70 calls I bought right after Katrina hit) so I just kiss it goodbye when I hit "Submit" and hope I'm pleasantly surprised. So far, so good.

I also hold calls on stocks like VLO APA NEM and positons in other gold silver oil and ng stocks where no options are available. SF,SG too.

So what do you call that?

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[')b]What type of trader are YOU???

[MicroHydro]

Anyone care to explain the 9 DEC session? ALL energies, all contract dates, sold off in late trading. Very fishy. Hard to explain on a fundamental basis. Gasoline is a refinery product europe likes to sell. Diesel/heating oil are refinery products europe doesn't like to sell. Natural gas on the NYMEX is 99% north american. Crude oil is a fungible global product. Reserve sales are bearish for spot prices but bullish for some future date when the reserves have to be refilled. Energy commodity contracts often move in different directions. But not this time. Short sales by the PPT?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'A')nyone care to explain the 9 DEC session? ALL energies, all contract dates, sold off in late trading. Very fishy. Hard to explain on a fundamental basis. Gasoline is a refinery product europe likes to sell. Diesel/heating oil are refinery products europe doesn't like to sell. Natural gas on the NYMEX is 99% north american. Crude oil is a fungible global product. Reserve sales are bearish for spot prices but bullish for some future date when the reserves have to be refilled. Energy commodity contracts often move in different directions. But not this time. Short sales by the PPT?

[MrBill]

The other reason that the so called PPT cannot push commodity prices down indefinately is as soon as they were to stop selling the market would take it as a buy signal and like pushing a cork under water pop right back up to the surface. This would mean that they would permanently have to be on the offer and selling into every rally. Not a very sustainable strategy. BP, Shell, Exxon and others would soon catch onto their game plan and trade around them. Wait for them to stop selling and then buy aggressively. Assuring themselves a nice trading profit at the government's expense. Talk about the Greenspan put. This is like money in the bank.

Good luck this week. I am under pressure and hope to post some comments, but first of all get my own head back in the game. Cheers.

[MrBill]

Comments by Refco Overseas London

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]ANALYSIS: The final onslaught of snow and cold weather brought with it wide scale profit taking by longs which drove prices lower after a weak attempt to trade higher. Cash merchants basically found themselves well stocked with heating oil and other fuels and prices weakened. Heavy fund selling ensued. Heating broke heavily and crude went below $60. OPEC commented they would supply the market
News:
· Colonial pipeline extended its allocations on its distillate line through the 36th cycle running between Collins, MS and Greensboro NC.

· OPEC President, Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, has proposed to member countries that output remain unchanged at Dec. 12’s meeting.

· The OPEC President warned oil security had to be taken seriously in light of the Al-Qeada threat,

· Algerian oil minister believes that there is currently enough oil demand to support current output in Q2 of 2006. He also thought that it may be necessary to meet again in January.

· The Baker Hughes Rig Count of rigs searching for oil and gas in the US rose 23 to 1,483.

· MMS update reports 447,425-bpd or 29.83% of US Gulf oil output still shut-in with cumulative lost production since 8/26 of 100.369 million barrels or 18.332% of annual Gulf output. There were also 126 platforms evacuated, or 15.38% of 819 manned platforms currently operating in the Gulf. Note: Starting Dec 12, MMS data will only be released Mondays and Thursdays.

Refinery news:
· Shell’s Deer Park, TX refinery was running at 80% Friday morning. Full rates were expected to be hit later Friday. The facility had been shut down on Monday due to a small leak in a crude unit.

· Chalmette said that a power outage on Monday shut down several units at the 190K bpd Chalmette, LA facility. A spokesperson said that almost all units were back and operational. An FCC is expected to be restarted next week.

[MicroHydro]

Well, I guess I have to hope for some real arctic blasts to bail out my February heating oil. Fortunately, everything else can wait for another cycle. Seasons cheers.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'W')ell, I guess I have to hope for some real arctic blasts to bail out my February heating oil. Fortunately, everything else can wait for another cycle. Seasons cheers.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Was very surprised. Expected the refinery/storage fires north of London to have a more bullish effect on prices this morning? Markets seem to have shrugged them off? Thought at least gasoil would get a boost from them? Strange indeed.

[cube]

Not to get too far off topic but here's a book I guess a lot of folks here wouldn't mind reading:

Jesse Livermore: The World's Greatest Stock Trader

I'm only into the first 80 pages but it's worth reading. If Alexander the Great was to military strategy then this Jesse Livermore guy was to stock/commodity speculating. Lets just say this person led an "interesting" life.

[MrBill]

Thanks Doly. As a friend of mine remarked, had it took place on Monday morning there would have been panic, but as it took place over the weekend many had the time to assess the damage and outcomes properly and did not jump to the conclusion that it was terrorist related.

However, those OPEC comments seem to have unnerved the market. The complex was headed lower until OPEC said they would continue to pump as before, but try to enforce the OPEC (ex-Iraq) quota of 28 mbpd. I don't think anyone believes that OPEC members wll forgo oil at circa $60 a barrel if they have it to ship. And members like Indonesia and Iran, in any case, are having trouble to export their quota. But it was the whiff of a tightening in OPEC supplies, perhaps as early as January, which caused this market to jump 100 pts. Enough to reverse some short term sell signals on the hourly charts and reinstate a longer correction on the dailies. So far no follow through buying, but NY is calling the shots and one can rarely tell by early European price action what they might do later this afternoon/evening?

As yesterday, the hourly chart action is leaning over indicating a slight correction lower, but as yesterday, they really only slipped 30-40 pts. before bargain hunters came in on the bid to add support. Any bears at this point are just testing the waters and are not convinced short sellers. Therefore, they, unlike me, are quick to take profit whenever they run into support. As for me, well, twice short yesrterday, twice in profit, twice stopped out to the topside. Oy wey.

Thanks for the book tip Cube. Will have to check it out on Amazon. cheers.

[MicroHydro]

Off topic, but precious metals seem to be making a top. I would be tempted to profit take. But, my positions are less than 6 months old and I do not want to send 35% of the profits back to the US. So I will have to just ride out the decline. I expect after a period of consolidation, metals will be back in the spring.

I am deeply troubled by Ariel Sharon's sabre rattling at Iran in the (UK) Sunday Times. Maybe it is all bluff, but if pushed, Iran might decide to attack first as Israel did in 1967. The markets certainly have not yet priced in that level of trouble.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'O')ff topic, but precious metals seem to be making a top. I would be tempted to profit take. But, my positions are less than 6 months old and I do not want to send 35% of the profits back to the US. So I will have to just ride out the decline. I expect after a period of consolidation, metals will be back in the spring.

[MrBill]

An interesting presentation on the oil & gas sector in Europe/world for 2006 titled European Oil & Gas: As Good as it Gets

S&P European Oil & Gas Seminar

[GoIllini]

What do you guys think of the COP-BR merger?

COP's stock sure has gotten punished for it, but I'm not sure if natural gas is going to sink back enough from the $15.50 record high it hit today to cause serious harm to the company.

Anyone want to estimate the long-term natural gas price for which the $36 Billion deal is worth it for COP?