[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'H')owever I would counter by asking what will the steel be used for? Does it serve a "meaningfull" purpose? If the answer is the steel will be used to build railroad tracks which lead to nowhere because it's some politician's special pet project then obviously no that is not good....no matter how much that may add to the GDP. However if the steel is going to be used for a much needed railroad that will relieve traffic congestion and thus increase efficiency then that's good.

So what's the technical term for this? if anyone knows tell me!

[Dezakin]

ubercrap:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') thought I read something about breeder reactors not being built in the U.S. partially because of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaties? (Beside the fact that nuclear fuel is still cheap for a number of reasons?).

[Macsporan]

With some of these trolloid posters it is sometimes difficult to determine where the stupidity ends and the malice begins.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') don't expect suburbia to survive and grow in its current form, but it may well.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an you elaborate a little more on why you don't expect suburbia to survive?

[donshan]

I just noticed this thread that popped to the top even though the last post was this past June. I am new around here, so I read it over. Very pessimistic posts

I thought I would add a post with some hope for humanity. Look at the legacy the late Nobel laureate Richard Smalley left us. If you decide that the end of civilization and a massive die-out off mankind is an important issue, perhaps it is worth your time to take an hour or so and listen to Smalley's talk in Windows Media Player format at:

http://smalley.rice.edu/smalley.cfm?doc_id=4863

(There is considerable discussion of Smalley right here in this Forum too)

Don't worry about not understanding some of the technical parts. Listen to Smalley's understanding of the big picture. The lecture is slow getting started, but it gets better and better.

Smalley starts with the fact that one thing a Noble prize gets you is that it opens doors to just about anywhere in the world. He spent a couple of years talking to the very best minds in the world. He has the technical background to understand the science.

He concludes the energy problem is the most serious issue facing mankind. The earth's population of over 6 billion people is unsustainable without modern energy inputs. If I remember it right the earth could only support a billion people or so on a sustainable basis. THAT is a decline in our economy. Doomers may be right.

The only way out is to find, not only enough energy to replace fossil fuels, but this energy must be cheap energy. Between 1 and 10 miracles will be needed to get there.

The ONLY long term sustainable energy source that is huge enough is solar. There is enough solar power for a population of 10 billion people, just by collecting it using the uninhabited deserts of the world. However, current solar technology, and EVERY current alternative technology costs too much. Smalley wants to make solar panels as cheap as paint. There is enough solar power hitting the earth to solve both the fossil fuel problem AND the CO2 global warming and environmental problems related to massive fossil fuel use. Are you willing to spend five cents a gallon of gas used now to find the answers?

He goes on to outline a grand plan to find "a new oil". He thinks a sustained R&D program funded by spending 5 cents a gallon from each gallon of fuel sustained for decades has a chance to get us there using the new possibilities opened by carbon nanotechnology.

Some will say, "Pie in the sky" , "there is no technological fix". If so prepare your lifeboat. Probably useless in my view, since even resources in a lifeboat presuppose rescue by someone else.

If you have any optimism about the remarkable breakthroughs possible, consider the path Smalley outlines for the next 20 years.

In one other post, I postulated the following analogy.

The transistor was invented in 1951. If you were an economist in 1951 given the task of calculating the cost of a World Wide Web of digital communications (it was analog in 1951), with every business, and most homes connected together with speed of light intercommunications, what were the chances of getting there in 50 years by 2001, and at what cost in 1951 dollars? With what an economist knew in 1951, he would have said it was impossible. He would not have even understood the concept of the World Wide Web we are using here right now to run this world wide discussion. He certainly could not have predicted the costs back in 1951, such as using 1951 International telephone call rates.

The lesson is don't underestimate human intellectual capital to solve problems.

I think the economy will survive the ending of cheap oil, and it will look nothing like today's economy.

[thuja]

To sum up a bit of this thread- there are those who believe we can replace hydrocarbon energy and therefore continue to grow economically. Most others believe that energy will inevitably peak and the subsequent decline is essentially tied to a contracting economy.

In terms of those who believe we can "switch and grow", I would just ask, until when? The potable water runs out? The uranium/coal runs out? Arable land to support growing population runs out?

On the other hand, if we realize, as many others have said before, that there are limits to growth, what kind of an economic can we develop that is based on sustainability? Interest/debt based s are impossible so we must look to other examples.

As we inevitably power down, it is possible that we can still retain a much greater capacity for energy creation than during pre-industrial times. But we will no longer be able to grow our energy capacity, so again, we will have to fit our economic system with a stable, but not growing energy system.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', '
')Right now the most practical system is the Gold Dinar and the most rational banking/lending system, in place now and working and ready to adopt, literally tomorrow, is Islamic Banking.

[lakeweb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'C')ould someone more knowledgable than me discuss the concept of using a gold standard in tandem with a ban on usury (lending at interest)? A gold standard is equated with a fixed amount of wealth in the world (or relatively fixed as only a certain amount of gold is left to be mined). There can be very little inflation based on the gold itself. Scarcity of goods/resources will still cause inflation of course. Without usury, there is no false wealth creation.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n terms of those who believe we can "switch and grow", I would just ask, until when? The potable water runs out? The uranium/coal runs out? Arable land to support growing population runs out?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n terms of those who believe we can "switch and grow", I would just ask, until when? The potable water runs out? The uranium/coal runs out? Arable land to support growing population runs out?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')fft.. He completely ignores the whole point. Even if we had all the energy we could want, there are still limits to growth on planet earth, and we are reaching these limits more and more every day.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')fft.. He completely ignores the whole point. Even if we had all the energy we could want, there are still limits to growth on planet earth, and we are reaching these limits more and more every day.

[thuja]

Ok anyone who wants to start the star trek thread (Dezakin) please feel free to do so...but I'm guessing you'll find few people who are willing to believe that we're going to "switch and grow" out and off of our planet within a few short decades.

Lakeweb- I think the point about precious metal discoveries is an interesting one in terms of the possibility of returning to a gold standard. Starting in the 14 and 1500s, the new world radically changed geopolitics because it contained new found sources of wealth, especially in the form of gold and silver. Many gold rushes followed, including the famous 19th century California Gold rushes which increased the rush westwards, i.e., manifest destiny. In present times, similar to the peak oil concept, there are less and less discoveries of precious metal deposits. Because of this, we are moving towards having a finite and knowable amount of these metals.

Due to that factor, one could create an economic system based around these metals without great fear that suddenly a massive new influx would be discovered to dilute what exists.

With a fixed amount of precious metals, one could base a currency around it that would not inflate like a fiat currency which multiplies yearly.

I think your point that there may not be enough of the actual metals to be distributed amongst the world's population is a fair one. But perhaps precious metals could be part of a larger barter/trade and limited fixed local paper currency system...just throwing out ideas here; but i'm still wondering how we could create a truly sustainable economy not based on growth. Thanks for your thoughts.

[Dezakin]

MonteQuest:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')pace cadets seem to have a chip on their shoulder.

You reek of bitterness, you know that?

How is this productive?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')Not as you reek of hypocrisy and irony.

[Dezakin]

MonteQuest:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I am a hypocrite?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')onteQuest:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I am a hypocrite?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, for one, I don't engage in ad hominem attacks. You do. Your bitterness comes out with almost every post. You are always attacking people, questioning their motives, rather than debating the merits. You just called my latest thread crap without even touching on the merits.

[dbarberic]

A wise man once said, money can be made on the way up and money can be made on the way down. One just needs to know where to look.

[thuja]

oooookay- take this one to the hall of flames guys...Dezakin, I'm sorry I misinterpreted and thought you were talking about an immediate space program when you meant over at least a 150 year time span. I will have to respectfully disagree with you about that premise even if it is less far fetched. The reason is that you only address the energy issue, not the water/land/overpopulation/carrying capacity issue. I'd be happy to hear your thoughts about that.

I'm also more than willing to be shot down about the idea of a metals/ no usury sustainable monetary system. But I don't think its due to the fact that there is limitless precious metals in the earth. Furthermore, in a powered down world, it will be increasingly impossible to mine at the level we are doing today. In essence we are dealing with a finite supply of a substance that we could base a currency on. A finite and knowable amount of currency can be the basis for a sustainable economy. (But I'm open to other suggestions).

Any new economy that emerges has to be based on perameters defined for each area of the world. Each bioregion only has a certain amount of carrying capacity and can only allow a certain amount of industrial activity and resource extraction to stay sustainable in perpetuity. THese perameters have to be defined in order for humans to stay viable as a species. And this is where I disagree with you Dezakin- we must create economic s not based on growth- otherwise we doom ourselves to using up our planet and then dying off.

Your frightens me because taken to its logical conclusion it would mean spreading this growth into the stars while forever needing more, more, more... It could only end when we've used up every available planet for extraction and population. And then we'd have an interplanetary crash, not just an earth-based one.