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Economic growth with declining energy?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Will our economy survive continuous Oil/Energy decline?

Yes
36
No votes
No
167
No votes
maybe (see comments)
35
No votes
I don't know
20
No votes
 
Total votes : 258

Re: Economic growth with declining energy?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 03:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat being said, peak oil does not mean peak energy
True, but it would just be the first of a series of peaks in many of our energy sources, all of which are of a fairly high energy density. First oil then natural gas and coal. Of course, estimates vary but it may well be that peaks of these occur within a decade or two of each other. Oil represents about 38% of global energy use. Natural gas and coal are also large proportions. I don't remember the total, off hand, but I think it's of the order of 80-90% of our energy needs are sourced through fossil fuels, globally.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'i')t means more expensive liquid fuel, possibly peak liquid fuels.
Yes, the crucial thing is "peak". If we peak in liquid fuels (as some day we must) then many activities that currently require liquid fuels will become more difficult, more expensive or more scarce. These include air travel and sea travel. Oil is also a feedstock to other processes. I think about 75% of oil is used for various liquid fuels (less than half of US consumption is for transport fuels - or is that just gasoline, I'm not sure). So substitutes for those processes will need to be found at the same scale, utility and cost, or else some of those processes will likely be cut back.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'C')utting out the fat will help but it isn't required.
It will be if suitable substitutes can't be found on the same scale as the declines and for similar uses. In that case, prioritising would be needed. This amounts to cutting the fat.
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Re: Economic growth with declining energy?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 11:50:25

Monte,

Yes..I saw a similar report except they were projecting 1 new plant a week. The truth probably lies between the two. Another bit of trivia: about 10 Chinese coal miners were dying weekly also. Good to have surplus population at times.

John - actually WalMart was doing great the last I saw. Average purchase per customer was down a little but customer count increases were really boosting their sales. Just the opposite of my expectations a year ago. Apparently a lot of folks are shifting from the higher end stores to WalMart. I wonder if the $1 stores have seen an income boost. Maybe their sales will become a good economic indicator of how quickly matters are getting worse.
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