by DefiledEngine » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 16:38:09
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')One of my beefs with the doomers is they don’t recognize that in order for the doom scenario to truly materialize, the entire world would have to instantaneously encounter a rapid, systemic decline in oil extraction due solely to geological forces, and that the world would react to this realization in a non-constructive manor. Both of those must happen for the doom scenario to take hold.
Simplify much? As both doomers and cornucopians point out, world systems are complex, and it's difficult to pinpoint exact critical scenarios, much less what they would lead to. The above is about as acurate as me saying optimists must understand that for their smooth transition to unfold, the world must face an non-bumpy, smooth, barely noticable down-slope, and not feel any pinch from other depleting resources, while people will understand that the economic growth must be kept going, and gather in good spirits and give to each other in the spirit of consumption.
Why do people automatically equate doomers to "I'm-here-to-kick-ass-and-grow-crops-and-I'm-all-out-of-seeds" movie image? To me, the old school doomers (e.g. Hanson), seem to advocate an iron-fist socialistic goverment, keeping controls throughout society.
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')The end of cheap oil isn’t sufficient in and of itself to cause the doom scenario.
Why is that? Because there are other ways to power this society (or some derivative there of), but we need time to transition to these other sources. The less time we have, the less successful we’ll be and the harder it’ll be to avoid resource wars.
Proof this works other than in theory? You seem to already know this for a fact.