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Doomers gotta DOOM

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby DesertBear2 » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 02:21:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')If we are interested to bringing sustainability to the masses then there will need to be a more active dialog and alliance between the secular and religeous sustainability movements.


Great point. Being personally non-religious, I have come to the conclusion that the overall environmental/sustainability movement in the US will not succeed without an alliance with Christians who value environmental ethics.

Only the liberal/moderate Christians are capable of publicly debunking the false and bizarre morality of the rightwing Christofacists.

We had better get into alliance-making mode. A good place to start is by contributing to the Interfaith Alliance of Reverend Jim Wallis.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ludi » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 08:39:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'F')or a less depressing take on PeakOil...

PS-thanks to EnergySpin for pointing out this site.


You're kidding......right?
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby fluffy » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 10:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y only hope is that the U.S. health care system is such a holy mess that it will collapse out of sheer complexity.


That's the one that baffles me! As we all know privatisation solves everything so why is this a holy mess? The UK has spent years trying to privatise the NHS by stealth, making everything that moves accountable etc, and if the final result is something worse how do people get away with claiming it's all for the better?


If there is one thing you can be sure of with free-market fundamentalists, it is that they will never, ever admit that a non-market solution can work better than a purely free market one in any situation, for any good or service under any conditions. And they are well funded lobbyists. Private healthcare providers are desparate to break into the NHS and they will spend money - lots of money - to do it.

The inconvienient facts - probably the best ratio of results-to-money spent in the western world, high life expectancy, low infant mortality, etc - always seem to get 'forgotten'.

The problem with healthcare is that you need it most when you are either very young or very old. By definition, the years when you can actually afford to pay directly for it are the same years you are least likely to need it. Hence fully private systems that require people to pay insurance simply don't work well; and since it is politically difficult to have babies, old folk and the poor dying in the street, the compromises you see in the US today happen.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 10:35:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'F')or a less depressing take on PeakOil...


You're kidding......right?


I was just waiting to see what kind of reaction that would get here : ) ... :-D Much like my original post on this thread.

I think I have seen him post here but don't remember where or what the reaction was...
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby EnergySpin » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 10:35:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y only hope is that the U.S. health care system is such a holy mess that it will collapse out of sheer complexity.


That's the one that baffles me! As we all know privatisation solves everything so why is this a holy mess? The UK has spent years trying to privatise the NHS by stealth, making everything that moves accountable etc, and if the final result is something worse how do people get away with claiming it's all for the better?

Who said that privitization works in the health sector?
It works only on the aspects of health delivery where the "market model" applies. E.g. having myopia laser Treatements, having your boobs done and other types of cosmetic surgery. It might also work on primary care (but I have my doubts). Somehow the unemployed 50 year old mother of two or the Wal Mart uninsured employee who is having a heart attack does not seem to be in a position to think about maximizing his or her utility and go shopping for lytics or intervention.
Last edited by EnergySpin on Tue 08 Nov 2005, 10:38:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ayoob » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 11:30:04

The only thing that has to happen for the doomers to be wrong is for everybody in the whole world to just get along and unselfishly give up the tiny bit of luxury they have left to people halfway around the world.

The good news is that history is rife with examples of this unselfish and benevolent behavior.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby rogerhb » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 12:22:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'F')or a less depressing take on PeakOil... (and he can sing, too : ) http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... tific.html
Image


Er, didn't his plane run out of fuel?
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 14:09:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'F')or a less depressing take on PeakOil...

PS-thanks to EnergySpin for pointing out this site.


You're kidding......right?


Actually, Ludi I wanted to share the link http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... tific.html as the blog is a counterbalance to the gloomerism that pervades here. I didn't get the pummeling I expected : (. The author (JD= JohnDenver who posts here?) actually accepts that PO is real and will require a huge change, but has issues with the tangents and conclusions that are posted here as fact and inevitable. Reading through a previous post I found that you approved of some of his postings here : ) http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7013-0.html

As the singing John Denver (of rocky mountain high fame) did die in a plane crash in 1997 the name is either a coincidence or a tribute to the singer. (I'm guessing coincidence)
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby FatherOfTwo » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 15:03:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '
')Simplify much? As both doomers and cornucopians point out, world systems are complex, and it's difficult to pinpoint exact critical scenarios, much less what they would lead to.


Pfft, ya right. All you need to do is read some of the doomers posts on this site to see that there is zero regard for the complexity of the issue. We're doomed and that's it. Is it an oversimplification - yes. Is it nonetheless accurate for a large percentage of the doomers - yes. Maybe you aren't in that group.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Why do people automatically equate doomers to "I'm-here-to-kick-ass-and-grow-crops-and-I'm-all-out-of-seeds" movie image? To me, the old school doomers (e.g. Hanson), seem to advocate an iron-fist socialistic goverment, keeping controls throughout society.


How do you equate doom to socialist government?
Do you know what the definition of doom is?

doom
n.
1) Inevitable destruction or ruin.
2) Fate, especially a tragic or ruinous one.
3) A decision or judgment, especially an official condemnation to a severe penalty. Judgment Day.

If you are a doomer you believe in the above, or you are misusing the word as it is commonly understood.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The end of cheap oil isn’t sufficient in and of itself to cause the doom scenario.
Why is that? Because there are other ways to power this society (or some derivative there of), but we need time to transition to these other sources. The less time we have, the less successful we’ll be and the harder it’ll be to avoid resource wars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Proof this works other than in theory? You seem to already know this for a fact.


Proof of what? Proof that there aren't other energy sources? please. Proof that it won't take time to transition our infrastructure?
What exactly do you have an issue with in that statement?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')As far as I have seen, that is the same people that advocate against starting preperations/research into oil depletion as soon as possible.

Please provide the link where Lynch states that. Otherwise it's a straw man.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby EnergySpin » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 15:10:38

One category of doomers I might have forgotten to mention is the "re-born doomer", the one who would have been crying for the rupture if he had discovered god before Campbell
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby DefiledEngine » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 15:52:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Proof of what? Proof that there aren't other energy sources? please. Proof that it won't take time to transition our infrastructure?
What exactly do you have an issue with in that statement?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The end of cheap oil isn’t sufficient in and of itself to cause the doom scenario.


You know this a fact? How? Been to the future lately? Or are you just assuming this? Too many 'must' and 'will' and 'shall' in many posts around here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Pfft, ya right. All you need to do is read some of the doomers posts on this site to see that there is zero regard for the complexity of the issue. We're doomed and that's it. Is it an oversimplification - yes. Is it nonetheless accurate for a large percentage of the doomers - yes. Maybe you aren't in that group.


*sigh* If going after the doomers without any arguments on this site is your best attack, then it seems that you go for the easy pickings.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')How do you equate doom to socialist government?
Do you know what the definition of doom is?

doom
n.
1) Inevitable destruction or ruin.
2) Fate, especially a tragic or ruinous one.
3) A decision or judgment, especially an official condemnation to a severe penalty. Judgment Day.

If you are a doomer you believe in the above, or you are misusing the word as it is commonly understood.


So a tragic or ruinous fate MUST be Mad Max? Maybe socialist was a bad choice of words... I'll have to think that one through a bit. I'd say some doomers see more of a future that isn't a fantasy freedom post apocalyptica, but more of an efficient non-waste society (heavily controlled) as their utopia. Some might see this as a doomer scenario instead.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby lakeweb » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 16:37:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', '
')Actually, Ludi I wanted to share the link http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... tific.html as the blog is a counterbalance to the gloomerism that pervades here...


This is a character attack disguised as a discussion about the science of peak oil. If the guy had a clue about science, he would have never used the term, 'scientific fact'.

Then he claims, 'In fact, "peak oil" is a huge mountain of...' So he has now redefined peak oil and called it fact.

He also says, 'Peak oil is a serious problem, and there are many honest people who are concerned about it. I'm one of them. It is critical, however, to think clearly and separate the science from the bullshit.'

If it is so important, why is his blog full of witch hunts and ridiculous dreams of energy from the moon?

Peak oil is a current event. World leadership is not addressing it which puts us little people in a rather precarious position.

As far as this thread goes, the problem is not about doomers. The problem is an unnecessary distraction about the personalities involved. Witch hunts are anything but productive.

Back to the topic.

1. What is the true condition of world reserves?

2. When do we start? (Mitigation)

Best, Dan.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby rogerhb » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 16:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'A')s the singing John Denver (of rocky mountain high fame) did die in a plane crash in 1997 the name is either a coincidence or a tribute to the singer. (I'm guessing coincidence)


... or that he ran out of fuel.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby cornholio » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 16:52:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'A')s the singing John Denver (of rocky mountain high fame) did die in a plane crash in 1997 the name is either a coincidence or a tribute to the singer. (I'm guessing coincidence)


... or that he ran out of fuel.


Hey, you're right... It's a good name on so many levels :)... The first being that he is so 70's, the second that he ran out of gas.... Wow... I wish I'd thought thru my choice of names that well :(

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', '.')...
As far as this thread goes, the problem is not about doomers. The problem is an unnecessary distraction about the personalities involved. Witch hunts are anything but productive.

Back to the topic.

1. What is the true condition of world reserves?

2. When do we start? (Mitigation)

Best, Dan.


But the topic of this thread is "the problem with doomers" which is so much more fun... Also, everybody here accepts that oil will peak (though the when is debatable), or possibly has. What sets doomers apart is the scenario involving starvation, die-off, the crumbling of trade and transit, the need for an effective perimeter defense and the benefit of owning a mule. That is the vision people learning about the peaking of oil production encounter on this and other sites (as though that vision was an inevitable conclusion or the only way of thinking about the topic).
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby nero » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 18:10:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the topic of this thread is "the problem with doomers" which is so much more fun... Also, everybody here accepts that oil will peak (though the when is debatable), or possibly has. What sets doomers apart is the scenario involving starvation, die-off, the crumbling of trade and transit, the need for an effective perimeter defense and the benefit of owning a mule. That is the vision people learning about the peaking of oil production encounter on this and other sites (as though that vision was an inevitable conclusion or the only way of thinking about the topic).


My personal definitions:
A doomer is someone who believes that at some point there won't be any bread at their local supermarket.
A soft lander is someone who believes that at some point they will not be able to afford the bread at their local supermarket.

So one problem I have with some doomers is that they assume anyone who questions the doomer scenario must be a cornucopian idiot, and ignore the soft landing scenario.
Biofuels: The "What else we got to burn?" answer to peak oil.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby Ludi » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 18:25:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', '
')My personal definitions:
A doomer is someone who believes that at some point there won't be any bread at their local supermarket.
A soft lander is someone who believes that at some point they will not be able to afford the bread at their local supermarket.



Wow, I just suddenly became a "soft lander!" And here I thought I was a "moderate!" :-D
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby lakeweb » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 20:09:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'M')y personal definitions:
A doomer is someone who believes that at some point there won't be any bread at their local supermarket.
A soft lander is someone who believes that at some point they will not be able to afford the bread at their local supermarket.


It is nice to believe but has nothing to do with what the numbers say. Yea, we don't have the numbers, only claims of numbers. But there are enough secondary numbers and evidences to make a reasonable assessment of our condition.

And why don't we have those numbers? I'd think they are the most important numbers in the world today. How can we properly plan for the future without these numbers? These questions make me itchy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'S')o one problem I have with some doomers is that they assume anyone who questions the doomer scenario must be a cornucopian idiot, and ignore the soft landing scenario.


Maybe I haven't read enough here. But from what I've seen this 'doomer' is a minority of the members. The URL that cornholio offered is just as bizarre.

So how did the concept of 'doomer' become so popular? A few folks run around screaming, 'End of the world!'? So what?

I think it is a waste of time.

Best, Dan.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby EnergySpin » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 20:25:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', '
')Maybe I haven't read enough here. But from what I've seen this 'doomer' is a minority of the members. The URL that cornholio offered is just as bizarre.

So how did the concept of 'doomer' become so popular? A few folks run around screaming, 'End of the world!'? So what?

I think it is a waste of time.

Best, Dan.

You have not been here long enough.
I do have to point out, that JD was posting here for a long time. He went on to establish his blogspot when he got fed up when members of the BNP, Foreman-like enviros and Malthusian -freaks showing up asking for the tards to be nuked, maimed, killed . He also got fed up with the hymns to Prophet Jevons as the reason for not conserving.
I disrespectfully disagree ... understanding the problem of doomers is certainly related to PO but has other important dimensions too.
Don't you agree? Or do you share the extreme social visions of some of the "doomers"?
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Edit
-----
Just to make a point clear: PO is IRRELEVANT. Regardless of the precious Saudi numbers, GW/CC mandates we phase out all hydrocarbons from oil to coal and from NG to cow farts.
Unless of course one does not accept the IPCC predictions and the current scientific consensus.
Since a) the numbers are not forthcoming and b) we should kiss our hydrocarbon economy goodbye I fail to see how the availability of the Saudi numbers will make a difference. Not that it would not be nice to have them .... but we should not wait for the numbers to be provided to move away of CnH2n+2 and never look back
Last edited by EnergySpin on Tue 08 Nov 2005, 20:42:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby lakeweb » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 20:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '
')You have not been here long enough.
I do have to point out, that JD was posting here for a long time. He went on to establish his blogspot when he got fed up when members of the BNP, Foreman-like enviros and Malthusian -freaks showing up asking for the tards to be nuked, maimed, killed . He also got fed up with the hymns to Prophet Jevons as the reason for not conserving.


So an example of a couple of cranks. Don't let them ruin your day.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'I') disrespectfully disagree ... understanding the problem of doomers is certainly related to PO but has other important dimensions too.


Ok, I'll bite, what is the 'problem'? If you mean that list you started with, it doesn’t have a single number. Here is the full copy of the Hirsch Report:
http://lakeweb.com/tmp/Hirsch.pdf

Couple that with the part you snipped about my itch. Don’t you think the world should be addressing this? See my post about the economic impact.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'D')on't you agree? Or do you share the extreme social visions of some of the "doomers"?


If it is burning retards, no. But I don't know what you have in mind. I do know that cornholio wrote:'I was just waiting to see what kind of reaction that would get here...' admitting to chumming.

Best, Dan.
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Re: The Problem With Doomers...

Postby EnergySpin » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 20:55:11

Thank you but I have read the Hirsch report ....
For the reasons I mentioned earlier ... I do not think the Hirsch report is relevant because we have to phase the hydrocarbons out ASAP and this will essentially cause "peak oil" in the sense that hydrocarbon use will decline. The only sensible way to respond to that economic crisis (which is necessary) is through macro-economical measures ala New Deal .
To sum it up for you .... we have to walk away of hydrocarbons no matter what.


The cranks that you mention is a big problem .... did you read the infamous ASPO newsletter when Dr Stanton wrote his "masterpiece"? I Have to remind you (or alert you) that there was a pretty big group of people around here who approved these "measures" and thought highly of his "realism". These are the extreme social views I was referring to.

May I ask you the following question:
Where do you stand on GW/CC?
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