[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter all if today you or I are not too concerned with people starving in other nations why should powerful segments within our society worry about less fortunate members.

[VoiceofDoom]

Anger can easily be deflected or turned in a direction more useful to the powers that be. Hitler's scapegoating of the Jews comes to mind, but for a more recent example we need look no further than Lush Limbaugh's rants against "Feminazi's, environmental wackos, & militant vegetarians." Those guns could very well be pointed at you and I.

BTW, what ever happened to Limbaugh's slogan "What a Rush"? For some reason he stopped using that one shortly after his drug use became public knowledge.

Regards,
Voice of Doom


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter all if today you or I are not too concerned with people starving in other nations why should powerful segments within our society worry about less fortunate members.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'I') am saying it might not be so bad because I haven't accepted all of the conclusions that doomers seem to... It's not a gripe, just an invitation to discuss. I have no emotional investment in debunking doomers... Feel free to believe what you want. I'm just pointing out that I see wiggle room for a different timeframe and course than some doomers do, for the reasons above. It may be bad, it may be better than you think. It will be what it will be. If my logic disappoints you I am sorry..

[cornholio]

Ludi, I am new to this topic and haven't been pondering the implications of PO for years, as Monte has... So my reaction is that of a beginner. I would only defend the first post, as they are my only thought out and truely planned postings. That is...
1)doomers tend to accept the worst regarding timeframe (earliest PO date, fastest rate of fall in production 9%/year) while holding to the belief that there is zero time or ability to adjust infrastructure and use. If events are further off or more gradual than that, and our reaction is less paralysed by war, disease and economic collapse then there would be a possibility of reacting and adjusting transportation.
2) Doomers are also more likely to see the dollar as a house of cards, set to collapse under stress. I'm no economist, but am just pointing out that this is a view not commonly held. If you search for topics on the US dollar collapse or petro-dollars you get peak oil and conspiracy sites. I would think that if it were not somewhat fringe it would show up on more mainstream topic boards. It's arguable (not very well by me, but possibly by others... http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic3761-450.html ). And, it's one more level of complexity to the problem. Is it intellect and insight that causes doomers to see, accept and discuss a collapse that the world isn't discussing, or is it pessimism?
3) They lump the peaking of oil, gas, coal and nuclear into one immediate innevitable catastrophe. I've seen this done on many posts... In fact peak coal is some few generations off and peak nuclear is beyond discussion thanks to thorium and breeder technologies. Is this pessimism or wishful thinking (belief that the system should fail now anyway for other reasons, so no reason to wait)?
4) They underestimate the impact demand destruction (decreased use) will have on prices... We just saw increasing prices decrease US demand this fall... Resulting in decreased prices. The interaction between increasing prices and decreasing demand is another layer of complexity making pricing predictions impossible. As demand destruction plays out over the globe where will prices settle. ?Sky high? Monte thinks so. Can the indian, asian, south american or south african driver really pay 7 dollar/gallon gas? If not, then Western consumers will get gas for less than 7$/gallon. I'm just raising questions here. Assuming "sky high" assumes someone can pay that price for the volume that OPEC nations need to sell... I'm just raising question.
5) They (correctly) point out that there will be no single replacement as plentiful and cheap as oil... but imply that that means that a patchwork of more expensive, less energy dense solutions coupled with conservation (driven by economic necessity) can not be successful. By successful I mean survival in a industrial-ish society with electricity.
6) They discount technology's potential impact on energy availability and storage... Bah Humbug is the response, if I remember correctly. Lithium nanotechnology discovered this year is resulting in a powerful new fast charging generation of electric drills next year. An optimist would see that scaled up to electric vehicles soon (as the company websites suggest). A pessimist doesn't leave time on the horizon for innovation, or starts worrying about peak lithium. It's just a trend I've noted.
7) They too easily accept the notion that the US economy/industry is without value and that the US dollar will fall to zero value easily. Actually this is the same as #2.
They use arguements based on efficiency and EROI to discount viable projects... Bah Humbug is the response, if I remember correctly.
9) Let me ad that Doomers are more likely to believe that there is a segment of elites steering us toward this chaos, looking foreward to it, and planning to put us in labor camps in a few years guarded by blackwater security. I'm not going to try to disprove this (if it's true we are in trouble) but just mention it to point out that doomerism is more than a conclusion, it's a way of life : )

Anyway, that's the most I will defend. General observations. That and the observation that as each point (depletion, political, economic, technological) has uncertain timing and outcomes when combined the uncertainty multiplies. You can decrease the variability of your predicted outcomes by always choosing the worst case scenario (doom x doom = doom squared) but that may not increase the accuracy of your prediction.

The rest was just rambling... As I find the initial steps and years too complicated to accurately predict anything compounding initial guessis is nothing more than conjecture.

PS- Looking at humans as a population in a limited environment is the most compelling and undeniable thing about the doomer arguement... Still the carrying capacity of the earth under future conditions (and what those conditions will be) is not yet certain.

PPS- What this thread has really taught me is how indefensible it is to have enough to eat in the US while not attempting to help out the poor places on the planet... Starvation is really easily preventable, and is probably man's most primordial fear. Food and birth control is a basic human need.

PPPS- Again, it is funny that I would be put in the role of defending an optimist viewpoint... Pessimism and fatality come to me much more easily than optimism.

PPPPS- Looking at humans as a population living beyond it's means on a small planet is the strongest argument for doomerism... But predicting the timing of our demise is difficult.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', ' ') I'm no economist, but am just pointing out that this is a view not commonly held. If you search for topics on the US dollar collapse or petro-dollars you get peak oil and conspiracy sites. I would think that if it were not somewhat fringe it would show up on more mainstream topic boards.

[Ludi]

Thank you Cornholio.

I'm very much on the fence, always trying to find a logical argument among the anti-doomer camp, but, so far, I've mainly seen what I consider boosterism and empty optimism. People say things like "Humans are intelligent so we will figure this out" and "the government will take care of it." Etc. I'm not able to see much evidence for many of the hopeful concepts.

What I see is a series of "ifs" but no evidence that these ifs are likely to occur.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f events are further off or more gradual than that, and our reaction is less paralysed by war, disease and economic collapse then there would be a possibility of reacting and adjusting transportation.

[cornholio]

Ludi- I have the same problem. Just as the "sheeple" are wrapped up in a secure worldview that isn't nearly as simple or positive as they would believe, I can't help but wonder if doomerism isn't looking a little too closely for cracks in the system. I think a lot of people (me) pour over these boards hoping to see the future for better or worse. But, until it happens the views expressed here are just views (until proven correct, at which point MonteQuest and the others will be remembered in a small footnote in history under the caption "they told you so : ) . "

Seeing humans as animals overextending themselves in our limited ecosystem is frightening and a compelling argument for big changes. Still, technology and industry does make the human animals different (?more resilient, more vulnerable?) and makes identifying carrying capacity difficult. The timing of our demise is debatable...

Ultimately I take comfort in the fact that I can live without most of the things that modern society brings... TV, airtravel, air-conditioning and heating, and cars. We have a long long way to fall before beans, rice and sleeping bags are not sustainable. When I panic i focus on that, turn off the computer, and go outside where it is a beautiful fall day. Taking a walk makes me feel better. On my walk I wonder how clean the pond water is and think about buying a water filter : )....

[cornholio]

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[Princess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')ell I think absolutely they would allow the population to starve. Turbo capatilism is a great paradigm for exactly this sort of thing.

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')h, it has: http://www.financialsense.com/

[Mesuge]

Cornholio> To your point #2. What could be more mainstream than Warren Buffet and Bill Gates the two most weatlhier people of US economy? They are both hedging against dollar. They believe that further 20-30% devaluation is necessary now to escape from the debt burden for a while. That would be more than cumulative 50% devaluation of $ currency from the year 2000 for god's sake! Proposal for loosing 50% value of currency in 6years isn't a strong indication of something rotten in the world's reserve currency and strong trend to you? Got the picture already?

[Byron100]

If those two big money men are so certain about the dollar's collapse, why is it then that the U$D is currently at a 18-month high? (1.18 USD = 1 Euro.) Or is this just the calm before the storm?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'U')ltimately I take comfort in the fact that I can live without most of the things that modern society brings... TV, airtravel, air-conditioning and heating, and cars.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')h, it has: http://www.financialsense.com/

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I')f those two big money men are so certain about the dollar's collapse, why is it then that the U$D is currently at a 18-month high? (1.18 USD = 1 Euro.) Or is this just the calm before the storm?

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', '
')
Ummm... I recommend expanding the service community to include everybody not directly involved in producing or distributing food (grains and beans), maintaining running water, maintaining existing homes, creating electricity or maintaining our cable TV infrastructure. If you are not in one of these crucial industries your "job" is to stay at home, eat your oatmeal, and watch cable TV. If consumption were trimmed to essential activities only (food, energy, shelter maintenence) the efficiency of modern farming (grains and beans and soymilk) and entertainment (cable tv, mostly reruns) could be provided to the population with most being able to live at home having the primary job of "not shopping," and "not driving" with additional responsibilities to include "not having babies" and "not turning on the air-conditioner." As cheaper houses fall into disrepair families have to consolidate, 2 to a room in McMansions. I haven't run the numbers, but that is my proposal. Oh, if you want you can telecommute, doing anything you want on the internet that does not encourage consumption of physical goods or energy.

SUMMARY: In our age of copious food (bean and grain) production and cheap cable entertainment most "work" just encourages unnecessary consumption and wasteful activity... Better to cut the "work" and the consumption out. Sustenance activity only.... It will just require a little more economic smoke and mirrors to make it appear that the service industry has expanded to include you sitting at home watching TV, eating oatmeal and getting paid for it. Panel trucks will deliver your grain and beans to your driveway weekly... No need for a car.
.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I')t will indeed "work," Cornholio, but only after the population declines to match the true (as opposed to cheap-energy-inflated) carrying capacity of the earth, adjusted for massive damage to and depletion of the earth's natural capital..

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o answer the first question that Cornholio put: the problem with both doomers and optimisists is the failure to understand quantitative reasoning . People stop once they get the answer they like and do not bother finishing off the calcs.
The reality is that regardless of what happens we are screwed. I mean, most people here cannot answer what does the rest of the (non-US) world celebrates on May 1st and why the US does not participate in the celebration. I do not think that the people who cannot answer this simple question (without googling for the answer) would be happy with "socialism".

I'm posting this, without reading the rest of the thread cause the objections to "socialism" are founded on the following private thought:
"The hell with it, bring me the die-off so I can continue living like an idiot in my eco-farm without the genetically inferior tards. I hope that Lynch is one of them, I lost so much money following his advice ".
which is the reason why most people here (esp doomers) would not have a fucking clue about my May 1st question.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o answer the first question that Cornholio put: the problem with both doomers and optimisists is the failure to understand quantitative reasoning . People stop once they get the answer they like and do not bother finishing off the calcs.
The reality is that regardless of what happens we are screwed. I mean, most people here cannot answer what does the rest of the (non-US) world celebrates on May 1st and why the US does not participate in the celebration. I do not think that the people who cannot answer this simple question (without googling for the answer) would be happy with "socialism".

I'm posting this, without reading the rest of the thread cause the objections to "socialism" are founded on the following private thought:
"The hell with it, bring me the die-off so I can continue living like an idiot in my eco-farm without the genetically inferior tards. I hope that Lynch is one of them, I lost so much money following his advice ".
which is the reason why most people here (esp doomers) would not have a fucking clue about my May 1st question.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')That's what I don't understand...why so many people treat socialism as a disease to be avoided at all costs, even in the face of utter and total destruction. What is it about "socialism" that makes it so evil compared to "capitalism"? Of course, I never hear the end of it of why "socialism" is a failed system, while "capitalism" is a roaring success and this will never change...well, that may be true up to and including the present time, but only because cheap oil has provided the perfect fuel (excuse the pun) for captialism's apparent success of the 20th Century. Once the basic underpinning of the modern capitalistic system is pulled out, I do not understand why it is unreasonable to at least consider the idea that socialism could be the optimum economic system in a post-peak era. At the very least, I think it's important that we always keep an open mind about things, regardless of whether we feel confortable with it or not.