Entire book on bird flu is online, free,
http://birdflubook.com/
his newsletter recently had this section, reproduced below,
seemed woth sharing with others here..(referneces
are listed in the newsletter)
EDpeak
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IV. Stockpile Weeks of Essential Supplies
Whichever estimate one uses, 62 million deaths,[25] 150 million
deaths,[26] or 360 million deaths,[27] WHO flu coordinator Keiji Fukuda hit the nail: "Speculating about the possible numbers is an interesting exercise, but the really important thing is, what do we do about it?"
The advice on the CDC website
http://www.pandemicflu.gov focuses on stockpiling weeks of essential supplies so that we can effectively
"shelter-in-place" during a pandemic. Like a snow emergency where we're told not to go out unless it's an emergency, we may be asked to self-isolate ourselves and our families in our homes until the danger passes. Although globally a pandemic might last 12 to 18 months, it is expected to come in waves, and in any particular locale, the wave may only last a few weeks, hence the CDC's recommendations. If we have to go out to the corner store to buy toilet paper or something during a pandemic, we may be bringing back more than just groceries to our families.
For how many weeks should we prepare, though? The U.S. State Department recently sent a cable out "to all diplomatic and consular posts" explaining that "current guidance notes that families should be prepared to 'shelter-in-place' for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period."[28] After flu bloggers pointed out the discrepancy between this three-month stockpiling recommendation and the two weeks cited by the Department of Health and Human Services,[29] the two month guideline inexplicably vanished from U.S. consulate websites.[30]
Robert Webster, arguably the world's leading bird flu expert, also
recommends three months. In a recent interview, he was asked what people could do to protect themselves before a vaccine were available. "If they have a house in the hills, then go for it--and stay there for three months. And have enough food there already so you can stay as far away from your neighbors as possible."[31]
To follow the State Department's advice to stockpile a gallon of fresh water per person per day in case of "complete infrastructure
breakdown,"[32] for a family of three that would involved storing a ton of water--literally. Webster has a better suggestion: "One bottle of Chlorox is enough to purify all the water you need out of the local
river."[33]
The recipe for water purification I give in my "Be Prepared" section (
http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=103 ) recommends 10 drops of unscented liquid household chlorine bleach per quart (liter) of water. This admittedly is an oversimplification. Most "regular" chlorine bleach on the market is so concentrated (around 5% sodium hypochlorite), a mere 2 drops of fresh bleach should be sufficient for a quart of clear (and not overly cold) water. But there are 1% chlorine products on the market as well, requiring 10 drops. So instead of recommending everyone read the small print on the bottle and advise 1 drop per quart for 7 to 10% bleach, 2 drops for 4 to 6%, and 10 drops for 1%, I just tried to simplify wit see of these monthly updates, though, is to expand beyond the basics, particularly when it comes to concrete, practical measures families can take to prepare. Next update, I'll cover the ethics and particulars of obtaining and maintaining personal stashes of antiviral drugs such as
Tamiflu.