[Terran]

Plants also need sulfur to grow too. There are fertilizers called ammonium sulfate, calcium sulfate, and sulfur flour.
The bunk of the sulfur produced today is a byproduct of refining petroleum. Most if converted to H2SO4(sulfuric acid), but some is used as fertilizer and other applications.
Some fertilizers such as sulfur is petroleum based.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://farmweek.ilfb.org/viewdocument.asp?did=8379&drvid=105&r=0.81831]Fertilizer Costs Soar; Farmers Face Tough Decisions (link)[/url]
Friday, September 23, 2005

Farmers this fall will have to scrutinize their fertilizer purchases like never before due to recent price hikes that have pushed the cost of anhydrous ammonia to new highs.

Illinois Farm Bureau senior economist Mike Doherty said the cost of anhydrous ammonia already had increased by an estimated 25 percent this year. And that was prior to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Now with the disruption of natural gas extraction and processing in the Gulf of Mexico due to hurricane damage, anhydrous ammonia prices are pushing $450 to $500-plus per ton across the Midwest, according at a fertilizer industry representative. Prior to 2005, the largest spring price quote for anhydrous ammonia (dating back to 1960) was $399 per ton in April 2001, USDA reported.

"Natural gas has been called the forgotten fuel because so much attention is being placed on high gasoline prices," said Jean-Mari Peltier, president of the National Council for Farmer Cooperatives.

FarmWeek's Dan Grant will have more on this story in Monday's FarmWeek. We have a link to the Fertilizer Institute website and a Department of Energy website on natural gas.

Learn more
Fertilizer Institute (link)

DOE Update on Natural Gas Industry (link)

[MicroHydro]

Yes, one of the Persian gulf states is talking about building a giant fertilizer plant. So infidels would be dependent on Arabs for fertilizer.

[thorn]

Organic fertilizer is about $460/ton for 5-5-3. It will probably go up too.

[advancedatheist]

By now probably half the protein in our bodies incorporates artificially fixed nitrogen. We could save a lot on nitrogen fertilizer by eating considerably less animal protein, but that won't happen until beef, chicken, milk etc. get really expensive.

[DerelictOverlord]

I kind of breezed through the articles and didn't see the other implications due to a "fertilizer" shortage. Consider that all surface mining operations, to include coal, almost exclusively use Ammonium Nitrate to fracture the rock to be mined. Once the rock is fractured it must be mined using energy intensive diesel equipment, and if you are mining coal it must be shipped by rail unless there is a power station on site. I keep seeing everyone having a fit about heating with gas and oil but don't be too optimistic just because you are heating with electricity. I can't help but imagine that the US economy will experience a downturn and the whole concept is a bit much for me to wrap my brain around but in the end I have to wonder if agriculture and mining will bid up the price of AN , and if they do who will win? If I had more time I would do a little research and try to back the following numbers but I'm in a bit of a hurry. Assuming there are 14 operating mines in the Powder River Basin and on average they each use 100 tons of AN per day then the simple math says that 9800 tons per week are used just in that one mining region or 50960 tons per year. Of course you must realize that this cost will be passed to the power plants and then on to the consumer. I'll have a talk with the blasters at work over the next couple of days and try to get some concrete numbers.

[GrizzAdams]

This is scary stuff indeed. Since food is the number one thing needed, and soil de-degradation has rendered our land into nothing more than a sponge. Most people don't realize that there is an army of microbes that live in the soil, and when you plow fields like there is no tomorrow, those microbes get devastated. Not to mention all the erosion going on.

[Starvid]

Ammonia production with electrolysis will probably start getting used again.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')mmonia production with electrolysis will probably start getting used again.

[Sys1]

Yesterday, i spoke with someone from my family, complaining about high food prices. She told me that in the laps of 4 years, she noticed that prices doubled. Quite frightening in my opinion. More and more people are witnessing food and energy inflation, while our brillant journalists and politicians pretend the opposite, pointing computers or plasma television prices went down...
Sure it's essential to get on internet and useless to eat !

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A')mmonia production with electrolysis will probably start getting used again.

[donshan]

I am new to this forum and have been reading a number of posts on how the Peak in production of hydrocarbon fuels threatens the long term food supply of America and the whole world. A 2001 article states that:

“Manufacturing 1 ton of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer requires 33,500 cubic feet of natural gas. This cost represents most of the costs associated with manufacturing anhydrous ammonia. When natural gas prices are $2.50 per thousand cubic feet, the natural gas used to manufacture 1 ton of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer costs $83.75” (2001)
.
http://www.noble.org/Ag/Soils/NitrogenPrices/Index.htm

The recent spike in natural gas prices has now raised anhydrous ammonia to costs to over $400 per ton!

This has increased production costs of many US agricultural products. High natural gas prices have forced many US nitrogen fertilizer companies out of business. Rising diesel fuel and electricity costs are also squeezing US farmers, who can’t pass on costs because of foreign imports of food products at lower cost. Faced with these spiraling production costs many farmers may throw in the towel and quit food production or al least shift to other crops. The result is increasing dependency on imported food.

The link below discusses the Katrina energy price increases on agriculture which prompted this post (and if their facts are wrong I would like to see corrections)

http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspectiv ... il2319.htm

Referring to the Katrina price spikes a quote:

“Agriculture will be affected in two ways: by direct energy cost increases (i.e., fuel, heating, and air conditioning) and by indirect energy costs increases, typically the manufactured inputs (i.e., fertilizers, chemicals). Manufactured inputs include pesticides, fertilizers, fuels and oils, and electricity costs to the farm sector. In 2004, these expenses amounted to $31.4 billion, 45% of operating expenses, and 15% of total production expenses (all higher than their respective 2003 levels). Fertilizers and pesticides account for 20% or more of manufactured input costs, so much of the impact of energy prices hikes will be borne by the crop sector and to a lesser extent the dairy and livestock producers. Nitrogen fertilizer producers, which have faced rising gas costs since the late 1990s, will also be significantly impacted by the rise in natural gas costs.

As a brief aside, the rise in natural gas prices, the fact that fertilizer is truly a commodity business, and the global competitive nature of the sector have all led to a number of closures of ammonia and urea facilities in the United States. Over the past five years, the United States has lost about 25% of its ammonia and urea productive capacity. Imports have substituted for domestic production. With gas costs currently expected to fluctuate in the $12 to $15/mmbtu range over the next four months, the gas cost alone to domestic producers would average in a range of $400 to $500/ton ammonia. The current anhydrous ammonia spot market price reported 26 September (Fertilizer Week America) was $380/ton (f.o.b., New Orleans), less than the low end of the range of gas costs in production. Clearly, either ammonia prices must climb higher, gas costs come down (which Global Insight does not expect), or U.S. ammonia (and urea producers) will not produce. Ammonia prices will likely climb, but it is not expected that they will climb to the point where U.S. producers will produce in force. Imports of ammonia and urea will remain high. Domestic nitrogen solution producers will likely take advantage of lower priced ammonia and urea imports to operate. Those domestic producers with other offshore ammonia facilities (in Trinidad and Venezuela with lower priced gas) will likely bring product to the United States.

Next year when the farmer decides what he/she will plant, energy-intensive crops will be at a disadvantage. U.S.D.A.’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reports the cost to produce crops. Of the 320 million acres planted to the principal crops in 2005, corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton accounted for nearly 227 million acres. These four crops also account for the majority of the fertilizer nutrient use and a significant amount of the pesticides.”

__________

At a minimum, the trend is for US production of nitrogen fertilizers to decline and the shift to foreign imports will increase. Countries with low natural gas costs, can make and export nitrogen fertilizers at costs that bankrupt US companies paying North American natural gas prices. Eventually this trend will result in 100 % dependence on foreign production of nitrogen based chemical fertilizers. This trend is similar to many other trends. America is becoming more and more dependent foreign imports for materials essential for life.

This leads to the question.

Is this only an economic issue where classical economic theory says we should stop US manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers, and American farmers should go out of business of food production because they cannot compete on a price basis with foreign imports who can produce more economically. Or is this a National Security issue that demands America not let our future rest on the politics and stability of countries like Venezuela?

Finally, I am a small vegetable gardener myself, and I am well aware that organic farming methods can reduce or eliminate nitrogen fertilizer use. However, I live in Washington State that grows enormous quantities of winter wheat, fertilized with anhydrous ammonia.

While in theory one could rotate legume crops to make nitrogen and plow them under, that won’t work here. There is hardly any summer rain here needed to grow legume crops and irrigation water is either not available, or the electricity to pump it is prohibitive in cost. In the end the wheat industry here and the yields that wheat farmers get, depend of the use of ammonia fertilizer and diesel fuel for the machines.

[Peakoil_Tarzan]

You raise some very important issues.

I worked for several years as a research associate in the crop & soil sciences department of a land-grant in the Southeastern US. During the time that I was there, some of the younger faculty and grad students began making noises about "sustainable agriculture." This irked some of the more traditional faculty members, one of whom protested during one weekly seminar that "every thing we do is sustainable."

Of course, what everyone was focused on was such things as pesticide build-up and pest resistance, soil erosion, and whether yields would keep up with population increases. Given that most of the faculty had come of age during the "Green Revolution," most felt that there was little reason to think that technology couldn't be harnessed to produce ever-higher yields. I don't think anyone -- even the "sustainable" camp -- was thinking about peak oil/peak NG and the implications that they hold for America's ability to produce food. This is a question that we need to be thinking about at the highest levels of gov't (hello... anybody there?), especially now that North American NG appears to have peaked.

Of course, the Julian Simon camp would say that we don't need to worry about this because when the price of N goes high enough, farmers will simply substitute another element (I hear there's plenty of Si to be had at very cheap prices) .......

One thing Americans will probably have to get used to -- probably in pretty short order -- is the use of processed human waste as a source of N (and other plant nutrients as well, of course).

The other thing that will need to happen is that plant varieties will be developed (maybe "resurrected" is a better word), that yield less but also use substantially less N.

Thirdly, we grow a lot of grain as livestock feed. This will have to end. You can certainly produce livestock without feeding grain -- it just doesn't happen to be the way that we've been doing things for the past fifty years. Where I live in Western MA, a number of producers are now getting into organic, grass-fed beef. Several of my neighbors are in the business and the number of producers in our area appears to be growing. So somebody must be buying it (I do and I can vouch for it's high quality). There has been a lot of talk in recent years about restoring the grasslands in the American Midwest. Maybe this is that way that the buffalo returns to the Great Plains?

Of course, these changes will also mean that we will pay more for our food -- and that won't make the non-farming 96% of the US population very happy.

Thanks for the informative post, donshan. Big questions to be answered...

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peakoil_Tarzan', '
')
Of course, the Julian Simon camp would say that we don't need to worry about this because when the price of N goes high enough, farmers will simply substitute another element (I hear there's plenty of Si to be had at very cheap prices) .......

[donshan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I')'m not a chemist, but one would think that the only thing one would need to make NH4 (I think that inorganic fertilizer is simply something close to ammonia) is elemental hydrogen and nitrogen. Right now, we use natural gas to get our elemental hydrogen and combine that with nitrogen, but I'd imagine that we could do it with electricity from nuclear, too.
.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donshan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I')'m not a chemist, but one would think that the only thing one would need to make NH4 (I think that inorganic fertilizer is simply something close to ammonia) is elemental hydrogen and nitrogen. Right now, we use natural gas to get our elemental hydrogen and combine that with nitrogen, but I'd imagine that we could do it with electricity from nuclear, too.
.

[donshan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '[')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem I am raising is the economics of a free market are driving US companies out of business and farmers are being squeezed too by the PRICE of our energy. Other countries can make ammonia cheaper than we can.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donshan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')I read somewhere that "energy is only 4% of the GDP, but try running the other 96% without THAT 4%"

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donshan', 'I') am new to this forum and have been reading a number of posts on how the Peak in production of hydrocarbon fuels threatens the long term food supply of America and the whole world. A 2001 article states that:

“Manufacturing 1 ton of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer requires 33,500 cubic feet of natural gas. This cost represents most of the costs associated with manufacturing anhydrous ammonia. When natural gas prices are $2.50 per thousand cubic feet, the natural gas used to manufacture 1 ton of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer costs $83.75” (2001)
.
http://www.noble.org/Ag/Soils/NitrogenPrices/Index.htm

The recent spike in natural gas prices has now raised anhydrous ammonia to costs to over $400 per ton!

This has increased production costs of many US agricultural products. High natural gas prices have forced many US nitrogen fertilizer companies out of business. Rising diesel fuel and electricity costs are also squeezing US farmers, who can’t pass on costs because of foreign imports of food products at lower cost. Faced with these spiraling production costs many farmers may throw in the towel and quit food production or al least shift to other crops. The result is increasing dependency on imported food.

The link below discusses the Katrina energy price increases on agriculture which prompted this post (and if their facts are wrong I would like to see corrections)

http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspectiv ... il2319.htm

Referring to the Katrina price spikes a quote:

“Agriculture will be affected in two ways: by direct energy cost increases (i.e., fuel, heating, and air conditioning) and by indirect energy costs increases, typically the manufactured inputs (i.e., fertilizers, chemicals). Manufactured inputs include pesticides, fertilizers, fuels and oils, and electricity costs to the farm sector. In 2004, these expenses amounted to $31.4 billion, 45% of operating expenses, and 15% of total production expenses (all higher than their respective 2003 levels). Fertilizers and pesticides account for 20% or more of manufactured input costs, so much of the impact of energy prices hikes will be borne by the crop sector and to a lesser extent the dairy and livestock producers. Nitrogen fertilizer producers, which have faced rising gas costs since the late 1990s, will also be significantly impacted by the rise in natural gas costs.

As a brief aside, the rise in natural gas prices, the fact that fertilizer is truly a commodity business, and the global competitive nature of the sector have all led to a number of closures of ammonia and urea facilities in the United States. Over the past five years, the United States has lost about 25% of its ammonia and urea productive capacity. Imports have substituted for domestic production. With gas costs currently expected to fluctuate in the $12 to $15/mmbtu range over the next four months, the gas cost alone to domestic producers would average in a range of $400 to $500/ton ammonia. The current anhydrous ammonia spot market price reported 26 September (Fertilizer Week America) was $380/ton (f.o.b., New Orleans), less than the low end of the range of gas costs in production. Clearly, either ammonia prices must climb higher, gas costs come down (which Global Insight does not expect), or U.S. ammonia (and urea producers) will not produce. Ammonia prices will likely climb, but it is not expected that they will climb to the point where U.S. producers will produce in force. Imports of ammonia and urea will remain high. Domestic nitrogen solution producers will likely take advantage of lower priced ammonia and urea imports to operate. Those domestic producers with other offshore ammonia facilities (in Trinidad and Venezuela with lower priced gas) will likely bring product to the United States.

Next year when the farmer decides what he/she will plant, energy-intensive crops will be at a disadvantage. U.S.D.A.’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reports the cost to produce crops. Of the 320 million acres planted to the principal crops in 2005, corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton accounted for nearly 227 million acres. These four crops also account for the majority of the fertilizer nutrient use and a significant amount of the pesticides.”

__________

At a minimum, the trend is for US production of nitrogen fertilizers to decline and the shift to foreign imports will increase. Countries with low natural gas costs, can make and export nitrogen fertilizers at costs that bankrupt US companies paying North American natural gas prices. Eventually this trend will result in 100 % dependence on foreign production of nitrogen based chemical fertilizers. This trend is similar to many other trends. America is becoming more and more dependent foreign imports for materials essential for life.

This leads to the question.

Is this only an economic issue where classical economic theory says we should stop US manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers, and American farmers should go out of business of food production because they cannot compete on a price basis with foreign imports who can produce more economically. Or is this a National Security issue that demands America not let our future rest on the politics and stability of countries like Venezuela?

Finally, I am a small vegetable gardener myself, and I am well aware that organic farming methods can reduce or eliminate nitrogen fertilizer use. However, I live in Washington State that grows enormous quantities of winter wheat, fertilized with anhydrous ammonia.

While in theory one could rotate legume crops to make nitrogen and plow them under, that won’t work here. There is hardly any summer rain here needed to grow legume crops and irrigation water is either not available, or the electricity to pump it is prohibitive in cost. In the end the wheat industry here and the yields that wheat farmers get, depend of the use of ammonia fertilizer and diesel fuel for the machines.