[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I') think avian influenza is hyped. How many will die? 10 million at worst. 10 million is nothing to a world of 6000 million. The Spanish flu after WW1 killed 20 million, and most people have never even heard of it.
.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne estimate is 300 million with the whole world evacuating work in much the same way as Texans have Houston. Result -no more economy

[pilferage]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedJake', 'J')ust an estimate of what might happen.

[Jake_old]

? Don't get it. I'm only looking for info into what makes someone so certain that this will happen. Reading the links too. chill

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedJake', '?')Don't get it. I'm only looking for info into what makes someone so certain that this will happen.

[Ludi]

It seems to me that only those of us with compromised health should be worrying much about dying from avian flu, but the impact on the economy and society will be significant with many ill people unable to work or otherwise function.

[Jake_old]

Well Dr Osterholm has impressive credentials. I'm sure you know a lot more about the progress of this virus than I, I do however watch the Bird Flu news thread.

I wasn't attempting to dis you or anything, it seems there's nothing to do to prepare for this pandemic any more than prearing for Peak Oil.

I read somewhere last night (can't find the link now) that the last flu pandemic attacked the strong and young. Something to do with a more violent immuno(sp?) response than those with a less healthy immune system.

So really I can't see how to prepare for this eventuality. Maybe to get less healthy

I hope no one close to me gets it, if they do i hope they get better. Likewise, best of health to you and yours I hope.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t seems to me that only those of us with compromised health should be worrying much about dying from avian flu

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedJake', '
')So really I can't see how to prepare for this eventuality. Maybe to get less healthy

[ozkrenske]

So the current professional estimates are (360 million/6.5 billion) around one in twenty people die in a bad case, not a worst case. Just think about that, imagine one in twenty people you know die over a 6 month period. I work with 60+ people, 3 will die. Now consider that over the whole world.

A worst case scenario would have the Virus continue mutating for several years continuously being a threat for 2-3 years before it starts to burn out. A return of plague ships and death island quarantine stations.

I for one can almost live cut off from the world for 3 months right now, with no inputs besides power and water (and actually I'm pretty good for water assuming at least some rain.). I also am owed at least 3 months of recreational leave. So home I will be if such a flu breaks out and spreads to Aus. I took a weeks leave with SARS after three newly arrived workers from China came down with the flu after a return from china during the SARS emergency. The workers didn't have SARS but it was a major worry for people at work. I would not even think of not doing so again.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '
')There is a thing called a 'cytokine storm' which means it goes for the healthiest!

[Ebyss]

Ok. So I'm young and in reasonable health. I haven't had so much as a cold in the last year and a half. How do I not get bird flu? Seems like the only way to survive it, is to not get it... so what are the best preventative measures?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'O')k. So I'm young and in reasonable health. I haven't had so much as a cold in the last year and a half. How do I not get bird flu? Seems like the only way to survive it, is to not get it... so what are the best preventative measures?

[sneak]

Hi Ebyss,

My profession is as a naturopath, and I am tertiary qualified in the field of natural medicine. While obviously biased, it is my sincere belief that natural therapeutic measures offer the best hope of protection against avian influenza.

Novel immunostimulatory agents such as various polysaccharide extracts from herbs are probably the first and best line of defense. They work through multiple mechanisms, enhancing both the non-specific and acquired dimensions of the immune response.

In my clinical experience, one of the most reliable is an extract of American ginseng, marketed as "Cold-FX" by a Canadian company. It is one of the few available products that is phytochemically defined, and with strong randomised controlled studies to support its use in both the prophylaxis and treatment of common cold and influenza. (Mods - not sure if product names are allowed on the forum...please delete the name if it's a problem ).

In addition, immune-activating compounds such the Larch-tree aribinogalactans (marketed as "Larix") and the phytosterol products (namely "Moducare") are very useful. Other potent herbal agents include Andrographis paniculata (a bitter Chinese herb with good evidence of immunostimulation) and high-quality extracts of Echinacea. Quality is paramount - remember you're not buying a herb, you're buying an extract, and choice of company and their reputation is everything. I would suggest only purchasing products manufactured under Good Manufacturing Practice legislation - in the US, that means companies such as Natural Factors, Metagenics, Thorne Research, Now Foods, Nature's Way and a few others.

In combination with high-dose vitamin C, zinc, and vitamin A, the above products represent a formidable arsenal against pandemic influenza, especially when employed with traditional anti-flu measures such as hand-washing, masks, disinfectant, high-fluids and bed-rest. When one considers that there is essentially nothing in Western medicine's array of pharmaceuticals that can be considered safely immune-stimulating, the relevance of natural agents becomes clear. While Tamiflu may be life-saving for those able to receive it, its benefits are equivocal, and anti-viral resistance an ever-present question. I think a prudent approach to this pending disaster would be to investigate other options now -- before the rush. I certainly know what I'll be taking should this thing soon explode!

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sneak', ' ')I think a prudent approach to this pending disaster would be to investigate other options now -- before the rush. I certainly know what I'll be taking should this thing soon explode!

[Ebyss]

KevO and Sneak.. thanks both very much. It's pretty much what I thought, scrupulous hygiene and handwashing and common sense.

Sneak, thank you for the list of remedies. I'm a "believer" in many of the herbal and "natural" remedies. I'll have a good look around for what you suggest. I've also heard that citricidal is very effective in treating bacterial and viral infections. It's, ironically enough, used for domestic birds to ward off sickness and disease. It's recommended for organic farming and is safe to use for humans. It's made from grapefruit seed extract.

[KevO]

I would have sent this to the Bird Flu news thread but I cannot get it to open. Anyone else having the same problem?

the official UK goverment leaflet on the flu
at
http://www.dh.gov.uk/assetRoot/04/10/77/08/04107708.pdf

[Liamj]

Diseases come, diseases go, last few centuries multiple pandemics suggest we'll manage without collapse. The idea that we should forget oil peak (which we KNOW will/has happened) because the latest disease looks set to rock is silly. Nobody KNOWS how virulent avian flu MIGHT be IF it becomes human-human transmisable, why not panic about possibility of intergalactic asteroids & catastrophic vulcanism too!

Theres 'might', and theres 'is'. h5n1 MIGHT affect you, but oil price already IS, and oil supply near-definately will.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', ' ')Nobody KNOWS how virulent avian flu MIGHT be IF it becomes human-human transmisable, why not panic about possibility of intergalactic asteroids & catastrophic vulcanism too!

Theres 'might', and theres 'is'. h5n1 MIGHT affect you, but oil price already IS, and oil supply near-definately will.

[Jake_old]

Ok I don't want to talk about if's, might's or whens. Don't want to make an enemy unless you think I'm a fool too.

Albert Bartlett explains very succinctly that populations WILL reduce. This is not something to believe, it is a fact due to population growth.

One way Nature can achieve this is by disease. Thinking Avian Flu MIGHT be the big one is not foolish at all, and will not lead to the death of anyone in particular, who was not at risk anyway. If your numbers up, its just up.

(oh balls i just did what i said i wouldn't)

Please can you tell me where Dr Osterholm says this is deffinately the one? I have read where he says a pandemic will happen, just not that this is the one.

Also I will admit, I would like some antivirals. But whats the point of taking things to improve our immune system if the stronger ones are the most affected.

Try to be nice.