[evilmonkeyspanker]

thanks

I wish to see playboy.com without paying for it :

[evilmonkeyspanker]

thanks

[gashole]

Hey Killjoy,
Ive been lurking at this sight for about 6mnths now, your one of my favorite posters, plus I really love the hairdo and the surprised look on your face.

I think you said it best at another thread where you compared oil consumption to yeast starving for more sugar. It boils down to the old philisophical argument about what came first...the chicken or the egg. Did we develope this huge resource consuming economy and go out to find the energy required to run it? Or did we start out with a generous endowment of resources which allowed us to create this giant, greedy, fat, resource depleting economy?

The answer is, of course, glaringly obvious except for people who are in deep denile about the facts of our situation. It is no conspiracy theory to say that oil is like the blood flow of our economy and everybody knows this at some level. Just watch the look on the average persons face when you start describing the realities of peaking oil production and its ramifications. I have talked to a lot of people about this, and I would have to say the #1 reaction to this is fear and denile. It has come to the point where I dont talk about it too much anymore because all it does is scare people, which is probably not very proactive. If I do talk about it I try to be as positive as possibly can by saying things like: "Dont worry, it will just open other doors of opportunity" or "Dont worry, it wont be the end of the human race" or "You never know, society may be better off".

I just gotta say that I really hate it when Im watching a news story about the price of crude or the price of gas at the pumps, and they go into using a little "perspective". This is usually done by comparing the price of a gallon of gas to a gallon of OJ, milk, perrier, eyecontact sol., etc. Excuse me but we dont consume 21mbd of OJ. Do you know anyone who drinks 3gals of OJ in a day? Or howbout when people compare our 2.50 gas to some Eur country paying 7.00. I would guess that that particular country would not be able to handle consuming 21mbd at that price for very long. (a little off topic I know, but I just had to get that off my chest

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('\"gashole\"(HA!HA!HA!)', 'I') think you said it best at another thread

[gashole]

I dont think you are necessarily a bad person, just missunderstood. Your defence in court could have been that you had just told this guy about peak oil, and the fear and shock caused his head to just fall off his shoulders.

You think you have a surprised look? I would have hated to see the other guys expression just befor his noodle accidentally fell off!

[MicroHydro]

Ah, the unbridled neoliberal optimism of the Financial Times!

[SurvivalAcres]

I suspect we'll all see what it is like to endure the "Easter Island Syndrome".

[CrudeAwakening]

That quote has to be one of the most inane I've seen on PO.

If the economy grows, we'll need more oil. Hmm... gotta be as close to a truism as you can get.

As usual, nothing about the supply side of the equation.

[oowolf]

Here's a list of classics:
http://eldoradogold.net/pompous_prognosticators.htm

[dabear95]

Press Release


Well, it seems many more people are thinking about the seriousness of this disaster. And I mention disaster in regards to multiple fronts and their possible consequences.

[pup55]

according to the most recently posted "free" IEA report, a couple weeks old, Europe has 54 days worth of gasoline consumption in inventory, compared to 20 or fewer in the US, so this is a no-brainer.

The crude oil situation is not as critical right now, as we all know.

The problem is, of course, that if this inventory bleeds down too low, this is a one-shot deal. Unless the anticipated "demand destruction" happens, there will not be a buffer supply to bail out anybody's posterior in the summer of '06, which happens to be an election year.

[backstop]

Pup55 -

the problem you cite sounds right tp me.

Have been thinking for a few days that the smaller the supply cushion, the larger the percentage cut in demand required to get a given degree of barrel price reduction.

I.E. Recession has to go deeper before fuel prices are low enough to help it turn round.

If that's right, then at some point on the downslope supply is declining fast enough that recession has to continue to deepen to reflect it.

regards,

Backstop

[dabear95]

BINGO! Backstop


The more we deplete our reserves the more we remove our cushion to resolve abrupt supply problems that result from natural or other "disasters".

In my opinion this is critical for the average individual that is unaware and unprepared. It makes it much easier to fall in to lawlessness.

[Jaymax]

Partly from selfishness, and partly because the US burns a lot more per capita than Europe, and so the US should need to learn to survive on less (than currently consumed) sooner than Europe, I'm kinda perturbed that rather than a semi-acute gas availability/price issue in the States, perhaps we're now looking at a generalised, global, non-acute petrol availability/price issue.

I'm more than happy to send gas over to the States, to prevent the economy crashing, so long as it doesn't get to the point of restricting local supply. Consider that, even at currently inflated prices, the value (retail $ per gallon) in the US for this European gasoline will be way under the value (retail $/£ per gallon paid for it) in Europe.

I'm one of few around here who supports the deal to effectively transfer European strategic reserves to the US. If it starts looking likely to extend beyond a couple of months, I'm gonna be seriously upset/worried.

Pup, can you please provide a link to the data-set that includes European inventory data - I imagine I'll want to keep a close eye on it over the next few weeks!

--J

[backstop]

J, You've maybe already considered the precedent set by any such transfer -
that national strategic reserves can from here on be seen as being for sale -

From a PO perspective, any softening of recession by sending 60Mbbls is plainly only a deferral effect, meaning that the wealthiest nation is going to come back for more.

It seems unwise therefore to accede to this request without physical commitments to substantive changes in that nation's energy conduct, which increasingly endangers us all.

Were I negotiating for the EU, I would thus call for America's public commitment to and promotion of the global policy framework of Contraction & Convergence. Not a drop of oil would be loaded without it.

[Raxozanne]

I don't see how the drawdown on strategic reserves both in Europe and America will be recovered as the forth quarter of this year is going to be very tight and then on into the future.

[CarlinsDarlin]

on a related note:
IEA chief warns of global energy crisis

Even the doomer side of me didn't think things would go so quickly down hill...
K

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-09-03T142124Z_01_MOL351670_RTRUKOC_0_UK-ENERGY-IEA-CRISIS.xml]IEA chief warns of worldwide energy crisis (link)[/url]

Sat Sep 3, 2005 3:21 PM BST

BERLIN (Reuters) - The head of the West's energy watchdog said in an interview on Saturday that Hurricane Katrina could spark a worldwide energy crisis if damage to U.S. refineries led to a big increase in U.S. purchases of European petrol.

"If the crisis affects oil products then it's a worldwide crisis. No one should think this will be limited to the United States," Claude Mandil, head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) told German daily Die Welt.

[Macsporan]

Call me a spoilsport but I think this would be as good opportunity as any for the blessed inhabitants of the Land of the Free to (shock, horror, gasp, vomit, faint) learn how to use less oil.

[DantesPeak]

Dosen't sound like they will be extending the 30 day period. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 1 of the 2 million per day from the IEA comes from the US SPR. So basically Europe is selling us 1 mbpd, which is actually less than the amount of 1 to 2 mbpd lost and not processed through NO.

So unless production comes on line fast, which is doubtful based on the daily trend by the MMS, the situation over the next month will get steadily worse, with things getting very much worse after 30 days.

Ok you optimists, tell me where I'm wrong here.