by theluckycountry » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 21:07:18
Bitcoin's Hidden Scarcity: Lost Coins And The Silent Supply Shock
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin cap was designed to counteract fiat inflation and mirror gold’s scarcity, a massive pool of permanently lost coins further tightens supply.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is scarcer than the market realises. Lost Bitcoins of between 2.3—7.8 million (11—37%) reduce accessible supply from 19.9 million to between 12.1—17.6 million. This silent supply shock, which dwarfs institutional demand and is ignored and underestimated by the mainstream media, positions Bitcoin not just as digital gold but as an asset with unparalleled rarity. It also has the potential to trigger a seismic price surge as the market wakes up to the scarcer than realised reality, and a free float barely half its total supply.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/1724730 ... irect=trueLets unpack this excrement shall we. The first error is that Gold is not in any way limited. It's still getting mined out of the Earth. Global gold mine production was approximately 3,644 metric tons in 2023 and is estimated to be around 3,300 tons in 2024.
Also as our coinHead uncovers, BTC is not at all like Gold, it's software, and we all know software can get corrupted or lost, and it is easily stolen. Not much Gold gets lost I assure you, not since the days of sailing ships. An interesting aside is that software gets regularly updated, the old version dumped. BTC has been superseded many many times for packages that don't use 1% of the globes electricity

But like any ponzi scheme the adherents won't hear any of this.
CoinHead claims that because there are a lot less BTC out there it makes the remaining tokens that much more valuable. That might be the case with certain cars, certain paintings, but not digital numbers. And besides, this lost BTC business has been known for years and will be by now fully "priced" into the market. Repeating it again and again won't make BC go up any higher than the Whales are willing to pump it and the Plebeians are willing to buy at those highs.
BTC is nothing in common with Gold. It's a paper asset, a tool of Wall Street. The only reason dim-witted fools think it is Gold is because the early marketers imaged it as a Gold coin. The whole BC=Gold is an advertising campaign, one that has worked too, one that has sucked millions to invest in these Tulip Bulbs believing that one day soon they will be able to sell them to a wealthy person, a greater fool.

We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.