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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 21:07:18

Bitcoin's Hidden Scarcity: Lost Coins And The Silent Supply Shock
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin cap was designed to counteract fiat inflation and mirror gold’s scarcity, a massive pool of permanently lost coins further tightens supply.

Conclusion
Bitcoin is scarcer than the market realises. Lost Bitcoins of between 2.3—7.8 million (11—37%) reduce accessible supply from 19.9 million to between 12.1—17.6 million. This silent supply shock, which dwarfs institutional demand and is ignored and underestimated by the mainstream media, positions Bitcoin not just as digital gold but as an asset with unparalleled rarity. It also has the potential to trigger a seismic price surge as the market wakes up to the scarcer than realised reality, and a free float barely half its total supply.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/1724730 ... irect=true

Lets unpack this excrement shall we. The first error is that Gold is not in any way limited. It's still getting mined out of the Earth. Global gold mine production was approximately 3,644 metric tons in 2023 and is estimated to be around 3,300 tons in 2024.

Also as our coinHead uncovers, BTC is not at all like Gold, it's software, and we all know software can get corrupted or lost, and it is easily stolen. Not much Gold gets lost I assure you, not since the days of sailing ships. An interesting aside is that software gets regularly updated, the old version dumped. BTC has been superseded many many times for packages that don't use 1% of the globes electricity :roll: But like any ponzi scheme the adherents won't hear any of this.

CoinHead claims that because there are a lot less BTC out there it makes the remaining tokens that much more valuable. That might be the case with certain cars, certain paintings, but not digital numbers. And besides, this lost BTC business has been known for years and will be by now fully "priced" into the market. Repeating it again and again won't make BC go up any higher than the Whales are willing to pump it and the Plebeians are willing to buy at those highs.

BTC is nothing in common with Gold. It's a paper asset, a tool of Wall Street. The only reason dim-witted fools think it is Gold is because the early marketers imaged it as a Gold coin. The whole BC=Gold is an advertising campaign, one that has worked too, one that has sucked millions to invest in these Tulip Bulbs believing that one day soon they will be able to sell them to a wealthy person, a greater fool.


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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 21:53:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')overnments and central banks are buying gold. I’ll do what they do


I already did. Market funds have turned out to be a better investment. But for those who can't think their way through a game of checkers, yeah, best stick with mindless PM herdthink. I certainly have no objection to folks making less off their investments, plus you've got a trust fund baby sugarmomma....governments would LOVE to have a couple of those laying around if they could I imagine.




Gold has outperform the DOW and S&P since 2000
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 21:57:14

Remember.
Stupid people can't be reasoned with, facts mean nothing to them.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 22:20:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')old has outperform the DOW and S&P since 2000


And as I said before, I am not a Johnny come lately like you. It isn't my fault you are late to the game, and then didn't get the upside of market investments because some halfwit sold you on investing in PMs at the wrong time. What..was it RUPPERT who's word you took on investing? That would be around the right level of stupid. His and yours.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 22:22:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'R')emember.
Stupid people can't be reasoned with, facts mean nothing to them.


I completely agree. I recommend you go learn some facts instead of ignoring them. And dear Lord lets hope you didn't teach your son to be as uninformed as you are, it is like you consider ignorance some form of accomplishment.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 22:55:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'G')old has outperform the DOW and S&P since 2000


And as I said before, I am not a Johnny come lately like you. It isn't my fault you are late to the game, and then didn't get the upside of market investments because some halfwit sold you on investing in PMs at the wrong time. What..was it RUPPERT who's word you took on investing? That would be around the right level of stupid. His and yours.


I backed up the truck @14 silver and $1200 gold. I warned everybody to do the same as I called the bottom. I even convinced by FIL who’s worth hundreds of millions to do the same. He only bought a few monster boxes of gold.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 23:01:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I backed up the truck @14 silver and $1200 gold.

You have my condolences are buying such expensive gold. Next time take your own advice sooner. You and Lucky are both apparently Johnny Come Latelys. And who cares about silver, that is for poor people investing who can't afford gold, or feel better having more mass of metal for the same money they "invest".
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby Armageddon » Sun 07 Sep 2025, 23:06:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I backed up the truck @14 silver and $1200 gold.

You have my condolences are buying such expensive gold. Next time take your own advice sooner. You and Lucky are both apparently Johnny Come Latelys. And who cares about silver, that is for poor people investing who can't afford gold, or feel better having more mass of metal for the same money they "invest".



$14 silver will be the greatest return in history. It’s heading to the $100’s. It has nothing to do with poor people buying, it depends on your quantity of purchase. Sure, it takes up more room, but who cares. It’s all about the return. I paid $1400 for my 100 oz bars and are worth over $4000 now.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 08 Sep 2025, 00:25:15

Silvers ratio to gold is nearly 100, it used to 16:1. Having 50% in silver makes good sense but the storage is a bitch. I had to buy a safe as big as a refrigerator. It's neat though, as it has a second safe integrated inside it. Both good old fashioned combination dials. It's fun to go down and pull out $20k to buy a motorcycle, Being your own bank is the way to go. No one else was involved in bringing it home and installing it either. Loose lips sink ships.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby Armageddon » Mon 08 Sep 2025, 09:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')ilvers ratio to gold is nearly 100, it used to 16:1. Having 50% in silver makes good sense but the storage is a bitch. I had to buy a safe as big as a refrigerator. It's neat though, as it has a second safe integrated inside it. Both good old fashioned combination dials. It's fun to go down and pull out $20k to buy a motorcycle, Being your own bank is the way to go. No one else was involved in bringing it home and installing it either. Loose lips sink ships.



Damn right
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Mon 08 Sep 2025, 13:52:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')I backed up the truck @14 silver and $1200 gold.

You have my condolences are buying such expensive gold.

$14 silver will be the greatest return in history.


Who cares. You have my condolences for being a lousy acquirer of gold at high prices.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')It’s heading to the $100’s.

Who cares. It's silver. Too bad you missed the boat on gold.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') I paid $1400 for my 100 oz bars and are worth over $4000 now.

Who cares. I bought a house once. It also sold for 3X more than I paid for it. Did the same on at least 2 motorcycles....you want a cookie? It is silver, too bad you missed the boat on gold.

How is this for a better win that crappy PMs bought at a high price?

Pay $1 into a market tracking fund, which my employer matches. Not only do you have a DOUBLING of your investment right from the get go, but then you get more than a doubling of that...and it wasn't even just your $$ to begin with! If I calculated my returns that way, my money only, and put the employer contribution in as tax free investment gain, do you know what kind of ridiculous multiplier I get on my market investments?

No. You don't. Because you are so clever, you waited for gold to be expensive before buying it. Keep it up Armie, and good thing you found something even better than PM's....a sugar-momma!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Mon 08 Sep 2025, 13:55:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Damn right


Indeed. Always keep one handy. You know what happens if you lose her! Is that an F150 MAN truck in the background?

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Sep 2025, 19:24:04

I think luckies Law of the Dow needs a major revision, or tossing in the Bin. All the indexes have been making new highs over the past month, over the past 6 months, But energy hungry BC is still wallowing and still well below it's $123k top of a month ago. Also other coins have been surpassing BC in terms of gains this year. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') Bitcoin whale, dormant for nearly 13 years, has moved its assets. This contributes to a trend of large, long-term BTC investors moving funds recently.

It's not easy for a whale to jump ship, it takes many millions of Inke's to take up the slack. The "Buying the dip" meme is pushed with just this in mind I believe but many an investor has lost their shirt buying the dips of failing assets.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Thu 11 Sep 2025, 19:33:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he S&P 500 committee’s decision to deny Strategy’s inclusion in the index “dealt a significant blow to the entire corporate crypto treasury industry,” according to JPMorgan analysts, as reported by The Block.

They noted that this move signals a cautious approach towards companies that have adopted a cryptocurrency accumulation strategy. Strategy meets all S&P 500 requirements: U.S. listing, market capitalization above $8.2 billion, daily trading volumes exceeding 250,000 shares, and positive earnings for the last quarter and the previous 12 months. Nevertheless, on September 5, the “secret” committee rejected the company’s application without specifying reasons.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggested several reasons might have influenced the rejection, including Strategy’s high price volatility and risks to its business model due to heavy reliance on Bitcoin.
https://forklog.com/en/jpmorgan-calls-s ... reasuries/


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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Thu 11 Sep 2025, 20:38:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')If you have any more questions or need further details, feel free to ask!


Thanks for the explanation. I might find it in me to experiment with "stable" coins I suppose under the right circumstances.

But you know, old dog, new tricks, investing was a thing I did when I was young, nowadays they are just numbers and the wife and kids will do whatever they want with it. Chasing minut differences in annualized returns just doesn't interest me. Scenery does though.2 wheels or 4...the Rockys or The Great American Desert...what is that phrase? Not all who wander are lost. Will work for me until I can't.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 15 Sep 2025, 03:45:07

‘Strong chance’ US will form Strategic Bitcoin Reserve this year: Alex Thorn


Image

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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is a likelihood that the United States government will form the highly anticipated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of this year, says Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn.

However, other industry executives are less confident.

“I still think there’s a strong chance the US government will announce this year that it has formed the strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) and is formally holding BTC as a strategic asset,” Thorn said in an X post on Thursday. Some Bitcoiners fear that US stalling could push them behind. “Market seems to be completely underpricing the likelihood of such an announcement,” Thorn added.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-gover ... alex-thorn

WOW. So BTC, which is real money, and totally like, independent of the banking and government systems of the World, is pinning it's hopes now on what you could realistically call, "Government Subsidies" :lol: Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Image

"People need to understand that Bitcoin, Which is a rare commodity, probably the rarest in the Multiverse, in not limited in any way. BTC transmitted via satellites propagate in all directions, traveling at lightspeed, and are now well past the local stars and on their way out of the Galaxy. These may encounter wormholes, or simply be met in some future Galaxy by members of the human race once we have conquered the Warp Drive. Imagine arriving at a distant solar system and finding your funds are already passing by, but due to the laws of relativity, greatly enhanced in value due to the time of passage. That's profound!
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Mon 15 Sep 2025, 13:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')It's a confidence game among the masses, pure and simple, no one is willing to take their money off the table.

I'm curious what do you believe in? Do you have any purpose on earth, say higher than a slime mold? Curious minds want to know.
Peace


Oh...I'm pretty sure you got it right with the slime mold.

As a parent you and I have both discussed our children, not in the boring particulars, but in a general sense of parents mostly happy with the outcome I believe.

Lucky is embarssed about his son for some reason. Makes one wonder, did the boy turn into one of those things he whines about, sexually confused, a BTC owners, maybe even the kid has a brain and is embarassed before the blithering idiot that raised him pointed him in all the wrong directions before he righted himself and became something far better? What kind of embarassment must it take in any case for a parent to not be able to find something they can mention that their child has accomplished?

Straight up cowardice perhaps? Slime mold can't demonstrate constructive thought any more than a parrot can.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 16 Sep 2025, 18:35:34

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHauBRzgY44

In this video Michael saylor explains, all sorts of shit, that is beyond you mere mortals but that you need to believe in if you ever hope to buy Lambo.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;... Fourthly we're looking for normalization and bank support of Bitcoin. Yesterday we got a joint memo from the OCC, the FED, and I think the FDIC, that reaffirms that it ok for the banks to custody crypto assets. That's a Big Deal..."

Yes, a big deal Michael, BC is fully captured by Wallstreet and corporations, and now, on the cusp of probably the most dangerous time in the financial history of the West, it's going to be absorbed into the Banking Blob. How silly of the founder to think it was independent money free of all that. What was on his naive mind back then?

Its key principle, was a decentralized network with no oversight or interference by Gov or Banks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')y S Nakamoto · Cited by 40580 — Abstract. A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a...
https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

If we take a step back though, into the real world of Billionaire machinations we see an interesting progression. Saylor was head of a piss-ant tech company, then he got interested in BC and began to ride the bubble up. His company borrowed heavily to buy up the tokens. This is the preferred tax fee route for the big boys. Naturally all along the way he was cashing out stock options, as I have listed here before, paying his personal tax and squirreling that money who knows where? It's well over a Billion now, not bad for a nobody.

So whatever he says about BC will have a direct effect on his company and his income, how can be anything other than bullish? We know that any negative comments, any slowdown in the Hype will effect investor sentiment. Now far beyond his control the powers that be are making changes, regulating it, like a chicken that escaped from the hutch and needs be brought back under control. He has nothing to do with this process yet from his his videos you believe it was all his doing! "we're looking for normalization and bank support of Bitcoin." No, sorry, it's just coming whether you like it or not, so stop pretending things are going the way you planned. Saylor's like a guy up riding a wave and claiming this is his wave, he's directing it toward the shore.

Image

We've seen it all before.
The WeWork Messiah

Image

WeWork was once valued at $47 billion... Today? Zero.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Tue 16 Sep 2025, 19:55:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')img]https://happy.live/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/crawl-20220614215622243-300x180.jpg[/img]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHauBRzgY44

In this video Michael saylor explains, all sorts of shit,.....


Indeed. Just the kind of references a parrot might need. Shit ones. Thanks for the heads up.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Sep 2025, 02:31:31

The sad part about the WeWork scam was that the $47 Billion dollars could have been directed into something worthwhile, something that actually paid a return, but was flushed down the toilet because the company was built on a pack of Lies. Adam walked away a Billionaire having left before the IPO, but it was all his creation.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/wew ... 00085.html

Big bubbles typically involve government sanction and promotion, I doubt WW had such, it simply wasn't big enough, but the Battcar bubble did, as did the dotcom, and the BTC bubble does. Beware anything the government is marketing, it always ends in ruin.

After a decade of losses for US shale oil, 2020 may be a final reckoning
It wasn't a license to print money after all.
https://qz.com/1875583/the-us-shale-oil ... d-collapse

And the current situation.
https://www.google.com/search?q=shale+o ... 24&dpr=1.5
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rmed with government-funded technology for fracking, shale oil insurgents had managed to turn the US into a net oil exporter for the first time in generations.

Just another big investment scam where a select few got out with huge profits and the taxpayer foots the bill.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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