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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Wed 23 Jul 2025, 22:07:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')ccording to luckies DOW Crypto theory were about to see a bump in the tokens.

Parrots can't do theories. That requires some measure of thinking. Back to the labor you are capable of.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Wed 23 Jul 2025, 22:12:53

Ha! How's that. It was 117 when I posted the above, now 119.
Shitcoin solved, by a humble aussie who never owned a crypto in his life :lol:
Because when you're "inside" a bubble you can't see the bubble.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 09:58:47

Dow falling sharply, shitcoin taking an even bigger dump! That's leverage for you eh, leverage is a bitch when it goes the wrong way.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 11:51:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'D')ow falling sharply, shitcoin taking an even bigger dump! That's leverage for you eh, leverage is a bitch when it goes the wrong way.


Depends. I'm not in the market much right now so I don't care. And I don't do anything BTC so I care even less. And the gold still sits in the closet and I don't care much about it either.

Is this all your retired life is? Demonstrate you know nothing about investing, worry about the PM scheme you pretend is investing, worry about a collapse that (accoriding to you) happened 17 years ago with peak oil that wasn't and ride motorcycles with your neoNazi friends pretending you know what track riding is like?

Take up nose picking as a hobby, it is mindless enough for you, doesn't require burning petrol that is still around and plentiful (17 years after your imaginary peak oil), and teach your boy the value of YOUR lifes experience. Nose picking. Maybe it will energize him to finish high school, and get a job that isn't in the banana bending plant.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 12:31:50

Shitcoin solved by an aussie. Kiss my arse inke :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 13:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')hitcoin solved by an aussie. Kiss my arse inke :lol:

Why? Because that is the favorite act your King requires from the ballless citizens in their Commonwealth?

Here is one thing I know for a fact, using the things you lack (critical thinking, functioning neurons, a grounding in science and logic and the ability to pay attention to what people write and the qualify of the thought contained therein). I would take Careinke's investing advice everyday of the week and twice on Sunday's before I would give your idiot screed 1 second of my time. While I disagree with the idea that BTC is some big new deal, Careinke employs logic, demonstrates the ability to think and reason, and obviously like all Americans was taught by their ancestors and invested with their DNA, as I was by mine, that while some like Australians might choose to live on their knees before the King, Careinke and I American and our people have demonstrated not just exceptionalism but we have what it takes to NOT be some subservient moron in the remnants of the British Empire.

Or a parrot like you Lucky. Or a father who can't talk about his son. That is unfortunate, and pathetic. But based on YOUR posting quality....not unexpected.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 22:13:25

You know inke, I bear you no grudge, but I have to tell it as it is you know. And you can't fault my analysis, it's rung true right back to the very first BC leg up. I strongly suggest you consider what I say, and what I say is there is no future in BC. It's done and dusted now. Sure people have been calling it out since it was $2000, but that was not based on sound technicals (if you can call noticing an obvious correlation analysis?) Now that it's become clear BC's fortunes are inextricably linked to the US paper markets, and them only basically, it's obvious we only have to look at them, not the crypto.

Equity wrappers like Strategy (don't need the micro now), ETF funds, which are just middlemen creaming off the top. Derivatives now even! All these are vastly larger than the actual BC market cap and BC is simply the tail being wagged. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rypto derivatives are financial contracts whose value is derived from the price of an underlying cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Crypto derivatives market overview
Despite a recent downward dip, as of September 2023, the monthly volume of crypto derivatives stands at US$1.33 trillion, which is nearly four times the size of the crypto spot market. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most frequently referenced assets in crypto derivatives

https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/finan ... n-and-risk
https://www.ey.com/content/dam/ey-unifi ... atives.pdf

That's not the money invested btw, which is small. That's the liability of the contracts, the notional outstanding value. For all derivatives it's over 700 Trillion dollars now, and BC is now just one little corner of the vast digital swindle modern finance has morphed into. Have you ever investigated this? Didn't think so...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he collapse of AIG and the broader 2008 financial crisis were significantly influenced by the misuse and deregulation of financial derivatives, particularly credit default swaps (CDS). These instruments, intended for hedging, were used speculatively, leading to massive losses and systemic risk within the financial system.


Counter Party Risk:

That term applies to an asset you hold that can be influenced by other people/entities actions. Like if the ETF's decide to unwind, or Saylor's company diversifies, or a credit crunch triggers the derivatives market. Nearly every asset now in existence has this counter party risk. Even your house, since houses in toto are linked to the massive mortgage mill industry. If you live in a street of 20 houses and 4 are foreclosed on it doesn't matter what you think your house is worth, it's value is decided by the market and the firesale of those four houses will drag the whole street down. That's what happened in your housing crash.

I can only think of a handful of assets that have no counter party risk, you can find out about them over on the Silver and Gold thread.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 23:16:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'Y')ou know inke, I bear you no grudge, but I have to tell it as it is you know.


Grow another 50 IQ points, and finish high school. Then you'll maybe be able to converse coherently with Careinke's kids. When they were 10.

Do another 10 years of tutelage and your son won't be embarassed every time you open your mouth to answer a question, like, say, "yo old guy who can't ride a motorcycle, what is 2+2 again?"
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 25 Jul 2025, 23:30:02

Anyone with their assets in paper is destined for poverty, and it will much worse than the great depression this time! Imagine losing everything and no oil age to lift you out of the muck.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 12:08:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')nyone with their assets in paper is destined for poverty, and it will much worse than the great depression this time!


Good thing then smart investors invest in things like market tracking funds and whatnot. Done far better than holding cash, I agree, and even better than holding gold across my investing history.

Hold your breath until the next great Depression. At least that way we won't have to listen to your repetitive nonsense the rest of our lives.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Sat 26 Jul 2025, 18:14:28

Reddit's Brutal Truth About Crypto Profits: Why That Guy Who Sold Bitcoin at $100 Wasn't Actually Stupid

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Reddit discussion reveals a fundamental tension between investment theory and human psychology. As one commenter noted, “If you 500x an investment yeah you sold lol.” The discussion wasn’t without cautionary tales. One user shared how they lost 80% of their crypto holdings when the Voyager exchange collapsed, watching their “6 figure net worth reduced to 4 figure inside a week.”

This story underscores a critical point often lost in crypto success stories: unrealized gains aren’t real until they’re realized. The most perfect diamond hands strategy fails if you can’t access your assets when you need them.


It's one of the big conundrums of BC. Modern hodlers likely bought in between $20k and $80k, and didn't put a lot of money in either. Say you wagered $60,000 back in late 2020 and bought 3 BC. Now you're sitting on $360,000 odd. Wouldn't you sell? Especially in the fear/collapse cycle mindset that BC has? You know that one day soon it's going well down, because it always does. Do you want to risk all those gains?

$1 billion Bitcoin vanishes from Coinbase, whale move triggers massive liquidations - where did it go?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') huge Bitcoin transfer worth almost $1 billion happened recently. This Bitcoin was sent from Coinbase to an unknown wallet. The transfer caused a big buzz in the crypto world because no one knows who owns the new wallet.

This is the environment coiners deal in, unpredictable, anonymous, uncertain. It's not like any other market because by it's nature it's totally opaque. When a whale like Michael Saylor says he sold a billion dollars worth of personal shares in Strategy to buy BC you only have his word for it. There is no proof. The only proof is he sold the shares, sold them from a company that's main business is hodling BC? That's suspicious in itself isn't it. It's the same with Elon's sale of untold billions in Tesla shares (just before it collapsed in price) He said it was to fund X, but we have no proof of that since it's a private company. The money could be anywhere and the X purchase could have been funded by banks or private equity.

All we know for certain in regards to all of this is that it's occurring at a time when the markets are totally manipulated. Especially anything to do with musk because of his endless lies about future profits and projects. Lies might be a bit strong, let's call it marketing pitches based on the very best possible outcome, providing of course his fanbase stays true to the cause and buys anything and everything he places on the shelves. Apple is a bit like that too. It has a fanBase that will buy the product regardless, as long as it has a piece of fruit stamped on it.

But of course history shows time and time again that people go mad in herds, flocking to whatever investment in the hope that it will give them riches, just as the purveyors have grown rich. The Mississippi bubble, the South Seas bubble, the Tulip Bubble. That last one of course was the master bubble, where people were paying the price of a house for a single bulb, because they believed there would Always be some greater fool that would come along and pay them more. The truth was though that those bulbs were next to worthless, and when it all blew up it took Holland into an 80 year depression.

People look back and laugh at that now, but here we are again with people paying nearly the price of a house for a single digital string that represents a token, that represents an image of a coin, that is intrinsically worth even less. But they believe a rich person, the greater fool, will come along and buy it off them in the future. The basis for the valuations of the Dutch Tulip mania was that wealthy elites wanted them to plant tulip gardens and would pay any price. This was false. The basis for the BTC mania was that it was 'money' independent of banking and financial machinations, and that eventually everyone would get onboard. Both these assumptions have been proven false.

It's the same with the Battcar mania. All the buyers believed that they were the future, and eventually everyone would be driving them, so they got in early, sucked in by the marketing. As we now see though that will not be the case at all, but that hasn't stopped them believing, as they desperately hunt for a functioning charger.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reddits- ... 54409.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jul 2025, 10:22:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Reddit's Brutal Truth About Crypto Profits: Why That Guy Who Sold Bitcoin at $100 Wasn't Actually Stupid
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reddits- ... 54409.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr


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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 09:18:08

Over 120k remember Inke. That's what stinkcoin needs to achieve to surpass it's previous high in inflation adjusted terms. Just sell the crap while you can and be done with all the stress. You have enough of that on your plate now with that Battcar you went deep into debt with.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 19:29:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'O')ver 120k remember Inke. That's what stinkcoin needs to achieve to surpass it's previous high in inflation adjusted terms. Just sell the crap while you can and be done with all the stress.

Careinke knows what they are doing. And can explain it.

And what is it you know Polly? How to not graduate high school? To be embarassed with your offspring? The pain in ones jaw from servicing a King because your country lacks the cajones to get off its knees?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 19:40:00

Come on Inke, come out come out where ever you are :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 19:47:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'C')ome on Inke, come out come out where ever you are :lol:

Probably out with their children, experiencing life near water, and not thinking for a second about some uneducated fool embarassed to talk about their own children. Matter of fact, the daughter is coming over tonight to go for a ride with her old man....imagine that....I've got a DAUGHTER that has more balls than your son apparently, based on your enthusiasm about the value of his DNA.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 28 Jul 2025, 20:10:28

BC falling again Inke, just following the DOW as usual.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Thu 31 Jul 2025, 17:10:12

You know when the Big market collapse comes BC is headed for the toilet hey Inke. What's your strategy? Sell before and lock in gains, hodl and ride the train down for a couple of years, hoping it comes back again next time? Glad I'm not in your shoes mate.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 02:45:49

Diamond Hands, nervous hands, Bubble Hands
The current new posts on the BC-sub
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')6 min. ago
Don't ever sell bitcoin hodl!

I've been in hodl for the past 3 cycles.. if I sold during the all-time high of every cycle Id have been able to buy more at the next low but never know when it's going to be so I just hold and buy more when it's low. Proud to be one of the elusive one coiner ladies in the world. Would be nice to see the price never drop again but if it does no regrets.. buy more.

1 hr. ago
For those planning for the next cycle: have you already sold and are you waiting to re-buy after the next big dip? I know that trying to time the market is risky (dumb), but still. Is now ($115-120K) a reasonable time to sell? What’s your strategy?

1 hr. ago
Show me a sign
(someone posts a picture of the clouds)

1 hr. ago
If bitcoin hits 1 mil
Not by next whenever, but when bitcoin hits 1 mil. I will be giving some away and I dont own a whole coin. Mostly to people I care about, but also to people I feel need it. If you own more than a coin, do your best to spread your wealth in a healthy way.
Bitcoin jobs
u/Electrical_Arm4154

3 hr. ago
How to implement Mark Moss' strategy of borrowing against your Bitcoin to fund your living expenses every year without paying the loan off?

Mark Moss, has been promoting a retirement strategy to retire off your Bitcoin in as little as 5 years. Here's a recent video from him on this: https://youtu.be/0dbBQyIGT_4?si=B58k3GudgvpPCPf8

Basically you build up your Bitcoin holdings to reach about $1,000,000 then borrow about $110k or about 10% of your Bitcoin value in your first year of retirement to fund your living expenses of $100k for that year and pay off say, $10k in interest . In the second year, you borrow an additional $125k to pay the interest on $235k and have $100k to live on in the second year. Then just repeat this every year onwards. So your total loan amount increases every year but that's ok since the value of your Bitcoin goes up faster than the loan amount as a % of your Bitcoin holdings. Any loaned amounts are tax free since it's debt and you're not selling any Bitcoin. As your Bitcoin value grows higher you can borrow more to have more than $100k for annual living expenses. This seems to make sense to me. Anyone see flaws in his reasoning?


So much delusion, most wouldn't even sell any to buy a house they claim? They'd borrow the money "Dirty fiat" and pay the interest out of BC gains (which of course they have to sell) That's providing they can find a bank willing to accept it as collateral on the loan, and in that case it will be the bank's, not theirs.

Every idea they have is predicated on markets only every going up and on cheap loans always being available. Always the dream of 1 million BC someday in the near future but BC 20k is just as likely, more so based on past performance. It's a new era, throw the rule book in the garbage. How many times have we heard that before...
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 01 Aug 2025, 06:23:37

1 BTC = $115,006
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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