by theluckycountry » Mon 14 Jul 2025, 10:25:50
How long can this stock market bubble-up last is anyone's guess but it's dragged BC up to around it's last peak in inflation adjusted terms. I say bubble up and not boom because in a boom, like the 2003~2008 cycle, all stocks went up. But we really should be talking about the Nasdaq here because although it pretty much mirrors the Dow etc, that's the tech stock index, and it is the techie index that the cryptos are most identified with. There are some real darlings in the top 10, and some real dogs too!
Tesla, down 45% from it's high late last year. Alphabet inc down, Amazon, which has been a yo-yo for 2 quarters is still below its peak of 6 months ago, Meta down from last year, Apple down 20% from last years high. So Nvidia's moon trip is the only reason the index is up to an all time high, and Hubris is carrying the market up not boom fundamentals, ie: Abundant Cheap credit and retail investment. It's a bit of a death race I think, big money concentrating in a few quarters only to pull the rug when their profit is made. Even the covid bubble had more legs to it than this one and we know what happened then. The big collapse in both stocks and crypto.
So don't start popping corks just yet, this is not a time to celebrate, just a time to be be very very wary and have your finger on the sell button. Remember Nvidea was a rising star, then one day a Chinese AI, superior to the best US offerings, and needing none of the expensive Nvidea hardware, came out free on the app store. Nvidea went from $170/share to $94 over a 3 month period. That's volatility, that's insane volatility and has more to do with OMG Dump it economics than traditional market economics.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.