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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 21 Jun 2025, 19:22:42

You can access a BTC chart here
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

Go back a ways and look at the trading volume, just before a sharp collapse.
Feb 24 this year $18 Billion
Mar 09 $18 B
Apr 06 $14 B
Today $17 B

Trading volumes are typically around 50 to 100 Billion dollars. Sometimes these volume lows are at a very bottom and sometimes a moderate bottom doesn't have a vol under 20, but it's an interesting to see how many times the crypto plunges after reaching one of these. I'm thinking of the pump and dump system at work here, which would be orchestrated by a group of whales. It's a scant connection but let's see what the next couple of days brings us. If it was a signal, then I would expect BC to go back to double digits.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Jun 2025, 21:04:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'Y')ou can access a BTC chart here.Because I'm not smart enough to explain it, I'll just stick with the chart...fill in some "any 8 year old can come up a quote" to copy and leave it at that. Because, lets face it...I can't do more than just be Polly.

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sat 21 Jun 2025, 23:43:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'Y')ou can access a BTC chart here
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

Go back a ways and look at the trading volume, just before a sharp collapse.
Feb 24 this year $18 Billion
Mar 09 $18 B
Apr 06 $14 B
Today $17 B

Trading volumes are typically around 50 to 100 Billion dollars. Sometimes these volume lows are at a very bottom and sometimes a moderate bottom doesn't have a vol under 20, but it's an interesting to see how many times the crypto plunges after reaching one of these. I'm thinking of the pump and dump system at work here, which would be orchestrated by a group of whales. It's a scant connection but let's see what the next couple of days brings us. If it was a signal, then I would expect BC to go back to double digits.


Good possibility, If it does, I'll buy more. :) Remember OTC trades are NOT included in these numbers, and they trade at a discount to exchanges. Just more astrology for men. :)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sat 21 Jun 2025, 23:56:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '$')102,689. range bound exactly as the DOW is at the moment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to on-chain metrics, Bitcoin and Ethereum have once again become highly correlated with the US stock market, indicating that traditional financial trends are having a stronger influence on crypto prices. With stocks facing uncertainty, Bitcoin’s ability to break out of its current range remains questionable.

Could these macroeconomic developments push the market even lower, or is Bitcoin preparing for a surprise reversal? With volatility increasing, the coming days will be crucial in determining BTC’s next move. Traders and investors are now watching closely to see whether BTC can shake off its stock market correlation or if more downside is ahead.
https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-ethereum ... n-markets/

If it shakes it off it will the first time in it's history. The correlation is the only reliable metric BC has.


What the heck are you talking about? First time in history? LOL BTC has Always recovered as can be attested by your perfect inverse calls for the last 15 years. Thanks for the call, my personal Jim Kramer inverse market indicator call maker. Maybe I should go all in based on your call.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 22 Jun 2025, 09:43:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Peace through the most inelastic money of all time, BTC


What do you mean by "inelastic"?

So just as a frame of reference, I checked with Investopedia to see what they define as "money".

Money is any item or medium of exchange that symbolizes perceived value. As a result, it is accepted by people for the payment of goods and services, as well as for the repayment of loans. Economies rely on money to facilitate transactions and to power financial growth. Link

So, BTC would seem to fit the first sentence just fine. In the sense that just like paper currency, it is all about "perceived" value. So, you can perceive BTC to have value....but there is no requirement that I do. It has no value to me because I don't use it as payment for goods (although it can be used that way) or services or to repay loans and whatnot. But more importantly to an individual, because I don't "perceive" its value the way you do, I also don't take it in exchange for goods and services. Me buying, or someone selling me, a motorcycle and offering BTC gets a shrug from me and the comment of "well I'm glad it works for you, but I'll take a stack of $100 bills in an envelope instead".

So okay, BTC can be money in this definition....but "inelastic". How does that work? Because it is tied to nothing more than the energy required to generate it? Which is to say, it is manufactured out of thin air and household current, and it requires plenty of it to generate tiny amounts, so its value is somehow limited severely because of how it comes into reality?

But if you meaure its value against the other, and more common "moneys", it is completely inelastic in the sense of value. One day it can be worth $1, the next $2, and the next $0.50. That seems far more like a financial investment instrument of some sort, because its "perceived" value can move around no differently than a stock, also tied to an underlying entity of some sort. The common forms of money seem to mostly suffer from slow deflation, unless we are talking about extreme examples like Wehrmacht Germany.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Jun 2025, 18:15:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '$')102,689. range bound exactly as the DOW is at the moment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')raders and investors are now watching closely to see whether BTC can shake off its stock market correlation or if more downside is ahead.


If it shakes it off it will the first time in it's history. The correlation is the only reliable metric BC has.


What the heck are you talking about? First time in history? LOL BTC has Always recovered


What the heck are YOU talking about? We're not talking recoveries inke, were talking stock market correlation. I know this sort of analysis is outside your "Buy Hodl Lambo" mindset but BC is just another traded instrument and as such is subject to the capitalist system of markets. I have shown here before that BC has basically mirrored the pattern of the stock market, from the very beginning. And my point was, could it diverge now. Could the stock markets go one way, and BC another.

That BTW is something you coinheads claimed was reality all along. You claimed that when the stock market crashed BC would soar, protecting the Hodlers. But that was just another Lie. Bitcoin was built on Lies.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Jun 2025, 18:33:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
Go back a ways and look at the trading volume, just before a sharp collapse... It's a scant connection but let's see what the next couple of days brings us. If it was a signal, then I would expect BC to go back to double digits.


Good possibility, If it does, I'll buy more. :) Remember OTC trades are NOT included in these numbers, and they trade at a discount to exchanges. Just more astrology for men. :)

And they are probably insignificant to the moves. Astrology? Well it's obviously better than your analysis, which is no existent :o


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou think you know what you are doing but you do not. You buy because you were told to buy, you were told to and you obeyed. [Laughs] It is, of course, the way of all things. You see, there is only one constant, one universal, it is the only real truth: causality. Action. Reaction. Cause and effect.


Image

Now you will buy the dip, "because you were told to", and if BC follows the DOW, as it always has, and if my suspicions about BC trading volumes mean anything, then BC will do what those dictate and we can see that just by observing the charts. Cause and effect.

Image

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Jun 2025, 19:08:25

There is a well understood principle in investing, call it the ten year rule if you like. It applies to Boom instruments and triple waterfall declines. At the beginning of a decade prices of instruments in a sector ready to Boom are dirt cheap and unnoticed, except by the very astute. It is then that you buy and hold. Slowly over the decade other investors and then hedge funds catch on as the instruments rise. Then it begins to boom and the public come on board in greater and greater numbers, but only after all the real big gains have been made. Toward the end institutional investors drag their client's money in and push things a little higher, then, it all collapses.

We saw it between 1990 and 2000 with IT and mobile and the internet. We saw from 1970 to 1980 with commodities, Gold and Silver most starkly. We saw it in the shale bubble, we have seen it in the EV bubble. In 2011 Tesla was $1.48, it''s all time high in 2021 was $406. That's the inflation adjusted high of course, which is all that matters.

Ten years is an arbitrary marker, naturally there was computers before 1990 as there was Gold trading before 1970, but at the beginning of the 10 year period things quickly begin to change. BTC was off the radar before 2014/15, it was trading but meant nothing and volumes were in the low millions. Then it began to follow the standard 10y cycle. If you bought in back near the beginning you made exceptional gains, and anyone who did that has no doubt sold most by now. Whose left in this highly inflated market? The Bag Hodlers of course.

I missed the early BC period even though I had heard of it through a geek friend. No shame in that, I'm not greedy and was investing in Gold, the opposite of BC and other paper instruments. No one gets it right all the time in investing but so so many get it wrong all the time. They just go from one Amazing investment to another, buying in near the top and selling at a loss. Not a good strategy heading into retirement.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sun 22 Jun 2025, 20:36:27

Adam, good questions, in all the threads and I'll get to them soon. I am heavily involved in training my Robot on wheels and it's WAY more fun than this forum right now. Since I'm here though:

22 June 2025; 1 BTC = 29.907 Ounces of gold. :-D

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 23 Jun 2025, 17:14:24

Inke, have a look at the 5 day chart, yesterday and today's dip and spike. I was going to mention the spike but didn't get around to it, it was indicated in yesterday's volume. If you'd like my system PM me and we can negotiate something :o

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=dow+jones+chart&ia=web
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 23 Jun 2025, 18:44:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')here is a well understood principle in investing, call it the ten year rule if you like.


And you learned this while working in the world of finance...or ditch digging or banana bending?

You can't pick off a list your favorite "conventional" oils. An 8 year old can pick their favorite food off a menu...and you can't do the same. And someone this incompetent wants to lecture on the "ten year rule", whatever that particular hallucination is?

Stick with what you know Lucky....unfortunately for you that is next to nothing...but if you can't do easy things like picking off a menu...start with your nose maybe for practice, and work towards more difficult accomplishments from there.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 23 Jun 2025, 19:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')Image


Down boy down :x
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 25 Jun 2025, 18:43:39

BIS Claims Stablecoins Fail As Money
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) challenged the notion that stablecoins can serve as money in a modern financial system. According to the BIS Annual Economic Report 2025, stablecoins fail the fundamental tests of “singleness,” “elasticity” and “integrity,” three critical criteria that define effective monetary instruments.

The BIS described stablecoins as “digital bearer instruments” that resemble financial assets more than actual money. “Stablecoins perform poorly when assessed against the three tests for serving as the mainstay of the monetary system,” the report said.
https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/bis-c ... l-as-money

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')tablecoins: any cryptocurrency designed to have a relatively stable price, typically through being pegged to a commodity or currency or having its supply regulated by an algorithm.

Tether is an example of this crap, the company that runs the scam produces coins at will and sells them on a dollar for dollar basis to whoever is stupid enough to buy them.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Tether Hits $13 Billion Profits for 2024 And All-Time Highs ...
Jan 31, 2025 — Q4 marked several all-time highs for the company, with yearly net profits exceeding $13 billion. Group equity surged past $20 billion.

So they invent coins, sell them to suckers and then invest the profits in Gold and other instruments as a reserve backing the coins. Sounds like a Ponzi to me. But how much of this pure profit from sales is being consumed by the officers of Tether, by it's founders? And how secure is it really? They could move it all offshore at the click of a mouse and disappear, just another Bankman Fried event. The only reason Fried didn't get away clean is because he was an idiot and went to the Bahamas where he could be extradited. Crypto-queen Dr Ruja Ignatova didn't make that mistake when she vanished with 4 billion worth of American's money, and more overseas. Tether is owned by iFinex, a company based in the British Virgin Islands which also operates the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange. The Virgin Islands, a shady tax haven :lol:

The coin-o-sphere is full of such rackets and you'd have to have your head in the toilet to believe any of it for an instant. They match the dollar, so why not just keep the dollars :roll:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 25 Jun 2025, 21:52:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]BIS Claims Stablecoins Fail As Money
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new report cherry picked by the forum neonazi challenges the notion that neoNazis know any more about bitcoin stuff than they do what a high school graduation looks like. It has been scientifically determined that this because of genetic defects related to their criminal ancestors only bieng allowed to mate with inmates of a local psychiatric prison while incarcerated.
https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/bis-c ... l-as-money

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 25 Jun 2025, 23:53:24

Yes inke, the DOW turned up several hours ago :lol:
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Fri 27 Jun 2025, 03:34:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Peace through the most inelastic money of all time, BTC


What do you mean by "inelastic"?


Hey, I've got some free time, so I'll tackle this one first.

Inelastic money refers to the amount produced at any point in time, is known, and cannot be changed.

When June is over, about 19.6 Million BTC will have been mined leaving 1.4 million to be mined over the next 115 years.

1. the price of BTC makes 0 impact on the production schedule, it can't be changed.
2. The number of miners at any given time, makes 0 impact on the production schedule, it can't be changed.
3, The speed of the computers doing the BTC mining makes 0 impact on the production schedule.
4. Brokerages, Nations, States, ETF's, DEFI, OTC, Whales, and individuals trading BTC make 0 impact on the production schedule, it can't be changed.
5. This is why BTC is the most inelastic money ever made. :-D

Now Fiat money is probably the MOST elastic form of money, subject to the whim of Banks and governments. Why do you think we are so deep in debt?

Now let's compare the second hardest form of money, gold. Nations like gold, Central Banks like gold, Stock Markets like gold, Terrorists like gold, Gangs like gold, Families like gold, my Spouse really likes gold, I like gold. BUT, it's very elastic, let me explain. I'm going to use extreme examples to make my point, not that I believe they would actually happen. For instance if I change the price variable the reason the price changed is not germane to the outcome.

So, let's say the price of Gold doubled next month to $6,666.00. Of course it's news everywhere, and everyone will be talking about it. The gold mining shows will have huge increases in viewers. Businesses will pop up everywhere trying to show you, with the right equipment (Theirs), you too can pan for gold, even in National Parks. Heck, even your whole extended has planned a trip to a park known for panning in the past with all the money earned evenly divided among the family in attendance. Basically it is a "White Swan" event.

Do you think Newmont Mining (NEM) will increase or decrease production? How about the smaller miners, increase or decrease? Even mom/pop operations will increase.

What about the opposite? Say gold drops 50% in a month to $1666.42. Some of the large miners would not be able to produce gold at that price so they would fail, same thing all the way down the line. Your grandmother would be turning her gold pan into a birdbath.

Anyway I'm sure you figured it out at Fiat dollars, but others needed a fuller explanation. It's production inelasticity not price.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Fri 27 Jun 2025, 21:18:42

June 28th

1 BTC = 32.713 ounces of gold. :)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 29 Jun 2025, 18:01:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mericans are among the biggest holders and adopters of Bitcoin globally. A report by River indicates that roughly 40% of all Bitcoin globally is held by Americans


1 In 3 Americans Are Cutting Insurance Costs Just To Afford Food
https://guardianservice.com/home-insura ... purchases/

So much for prosperity...

More Americans Now Hold Bitcoin Than Gold, Report Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-ame ... 22745.html

Of course! Blind leading the blind :P
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 29 Jun 2025, 20:12:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')1 In 3 Americans Are Cutting Insurance Costs Just To Afford Food. Meanwhile, in Australia, the people stay on their knees to service their King, because they don't have what it takes to stand up and throw off the yoke of Monarchy. Some suspect they suffer from a terrible condition, known as "balllessness", a horrible disease caused by a combination of cowardice, bad hygiene, and DNA originating from prisoners and various scumbags from British prisons inbreeding with the locals.

https://guardianservice.com/home-insura ... purchases/
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 30 Jun 2025, 00:42:28

I think it's time you bought into BC adam. You can get a loan for it you know, add it onto your mortgage hey :idea:
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