back on topic.Luckies theorem of the DOW seems to be breaking down? I'm not upset or even surprised by this, no pattern in human affairs follows a perfect course though they do adhere to regular patterns, like the 18 year capitalist cycle in markets (crashes). Or consider the 80~100 year cycle exposed by Strauss and Howe, the saeculum consisting of four generations, each distinct from each other but each mirrored by a similar cohort in all the prior saeculums, a saeculum here is an old Greek or Roman term meaning a long human life.
But getting back to the markets and the correlation with BC, it seems BC has gone off the rails at the moment? All three major measures, the DOW and the Nasdaq, along with the S&P 500 index, have been climbing at a regular pace over the past 5 months, each mirroring the other. BC went along for this ride and I have been citing the
DOW as it's handler, which was really lazy on my behalf because in terms of actual "species" the cryptos fit into the
Nasdaq Family tree, Nvidea, Microsoft, apple etc. Techie stocks, volatile growth stocks. These are the same primary components of the S&P index too.
About 5 or so days ago a divergence appeared between the DOW and the NASDAQ, the former flat-lined but the Nasdaq rolled over. Just go over to Google and punch in "Nasdaq chart", then look at the one month display, then simply replace with S&P and DOW to see the comparison. We'll leave the S&P behind for now as I believe the Nasdaq is the only chart needed to see where BC is going, and at the moment it's going DOWN. BTC is currently down to $112,500, what was it a year ago? Just North of $50,000. Hasn't it done well
Yes it has, with gains of around 100% coming off a low, which while good compared to many assets it's hardly the BIG BOOM predicted by the coinheads. They are still collectively hodling their breath waiting for the moonshot. But why? The moonshot has already been, as evidenced by the liftoff in late 2022 from $16,000. Simply go look at the 'max' chart here
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin and you can compare the prior booms for comparison. Personally I think the coinheads have lost their collective minds this time. Knowing all the fundamentals have been proved false they have thrown out the only one that seemed to ring true, namely their beloved "Boom Cycle" Which as we have seen is nothing more than an amplified response to the action seen in the stock market. They are in denial about the Big Pullback that I believe we are on the cusp of.
Inflation, or a sort of Hyperinflation more accurately is the only thing that could drive the markets up from here. Because it's what's driven them up all along, all through history. MMP, Massive Money Printing will lift these boats but will also destroy the real economy, just like after the 1920's. But we have seen that kind of printing since the 2000's so who can borrow the money now, the world is maxed out on debt, especially $US Debt? Massive Deflation is a real cycle too though we haven't seen it rear it's ugly head for a while, about 80+ years in fact, a full saeculum ago...
What happens to markets in deflation? They collapse and stay down of course, only Gold rises then, it's not a 'market' it's Real money. More on that in my next post.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.