$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'E')xercise is an on and off thing; too little to too much. Health care has been less of an issue, my Wife takes some BP medicine, I have no prescriptions. My biggest complaint is gout...
Leaving the city, bot having to deal with public sector contracts and private sector contracts has likely out years on my life. It has for sure increased my happiness.
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Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by theluckycountry » Thu 18 May 2023, 18:45:48
Gout, too much wine? Haha, ahhhh the joys of age, if I knew it was going to be like this I'd have taken better care of myself when I was younger, maybe... I have the back issues, a dicky shoulder now too but I keep at the cycling, 30km rides on the flat twice a week, I don't push it like I used to though as you get the same benefit nearly by going at a moderate pace. I try and exercise the shoulder daily too, it's not that bad but get my arm in the wrong position and it's like someone sticking a hot knife into the joint.
I try to tell people who are in their forties and fifties, and talking of setting up a homestead to be self sufficient, that it might not be workable unless they have a lot of kids to do the hard work in the decades ahead. I hope my plans work out but no one knows the future do they.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by Newfie » Thu 18 May 2023, 21:07:16
There is a book called the 15 minute rotator cuff solution or something. Lots of reps at low weights, really low, for a long time. It helps a lot but is very tedious. Most people opt for the knife.
Gout is more beer and genes. I have shifted to GIn and Tonic, health food you know old chap. Botanist Gin and Fever Tree tonic for the snobs.
My future is experiencing degrowth daily.
But I shan't complain too much. I seem to be in better health than most of my peers. Could be worse.
Back to the WEF Global Risk Report, I was thinking of that in context of the Limits to Growth BAU Graph. Simply put I imagine the WEF report could be summed up as an caption arrow on the LTG graph, just at or past the top of the curves. The caption says "WE ARE HERE",
Gout is more beer and genes. I have shifted to GIn and Tonic, health food you know old chap. Botanist Gin and Fever Tree tonic for the snobs.
My future is experiencing degrowth daily.
But I shan't complain too much. I seem to be in better health than most of my peers. Could be worse.
Back to the WEF Global Risk Report, I was thinking of that in context of the Limits to Growth BAU Graph. Simply put I imagine the WEF report could be summed up as an caption arrow on the LTG graph, just at or past the top of the curves. The caption says "WE ARE HERE",
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by theluckycountry » Fri 19 May 2023, 20:23:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Back to the WEF Global Risk Report, I was thinking of that in context of the Limits to Growth BAU Graph. Simply put I imagine the WEF report could be summed up as an caption arrow on the LTG graph, just at or past the top of the curves. The caption says "WE ARE HERE",
')
Back to the WEF Global Risk Report, I was thinking of that in context of the Limits to Growth BAU Graph. Simply put I imagine the WEF report could be summed up as an caption arrow on the LTG graph, just at or past the top of the curves. The caption says "WE ARE HERE",
Yes, well, even from the summary it's clear the WEF report completely ignores the seriousness of oil depletion, resource depletion, and all the other Limits pointed out so clearly in the 1970's MIT work. It seem obvious to me that they are just a bunch of politicians trying to obfuscate the realities of the over-exploitation of the Planet by casting the blame for our problems on interest rate cycles, CO2 emissions, the war between Russia and, "the forces of goodness", and on the magic virus.
All these excuses are nonsensical when you look at recent history since WWII. There have been many nasty interest rate cycles and massive proxy wars, but it didn't stop economies booming ever onward and upward fueled by cheap oil. The WEF has been very clear in it's agenda for us, "You will own nothing but be happy". I didn't read the full report, a long winded document drafted for a political agenda, and to honest I haven't read the limits to growth for years either. That document was not written for me but for politicians and leaders of industry, in the hope they would change the path we were on.
Denis and Denise must have been very young idealists when they printed that book. Hoping it might make a change, that somehow 5000 years of human nature would suddenly change because of the level of the threat. Unfortunately those people in power back then, and now, care nothing for future generations, they care only for their short term profits, their own temporal luxuries. And from reading the posts here I think most of us here would identify with those motivations. Yes we need to save the world, but keep your hands off my energy sink house, my luxury boat, my finances and my motorcycles.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by Newfie » Sat 20 May 2023, 12:25:41
Lucky,
Back when the was written 5he team focused upon the material trends and used those trends to make assumptions about how the future would develop. What the did NOT do was to make predictions about how that new world would disintegrate, just that it would. They were looking 50+ years into the future, quite remarkable and ballsy.
The WEF is doing something very different, they are looking on far shorter time frames (2 to 5 years) and reporting on how the world is changing. And, yes, they have a bias to continue the existing world order. So of course their metrics and methods are going ot be different. How could it be otherwise.
IIRC LTG declined to view past the peak into the downward trend. I recall the rational as along the lines of the following "Once any of the major indicators start to break negative then the whole system becomes chaotic and could go down in many different directions." I hope I got that about right.
So both groups are peering into the future from different vantage points using vastly different modules.
Where they coalesce is in seeing the world as an intricately interlaced system of international connections that require smooth operation and mutual trust. The WEF does not say "we are running our of grain" it is saying the grain harvest and disruption wl cause famine, which will cause civil unrest and forced migration.
It does not say consumer goods have maxed out but that the political and security climate has been disrupted so that production will shift to less efficient regional centers.
LTG was Mom saying "You will think differently in 8 months", WEF is reporting the first unpleasant pangs of contraction as they occur.
Thus "You are here."
Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
Back when the was written 5he team focused upon the material trends and used those trends to make assumptions about how the future would develop. What the did NOT do was to make predictions about how that new world would disintegrate, just that it would. They were looking 50+ years into the future, quite remarkable and ballsy.
The WEF is doing something very different, they are looking on far shorter time frames (2 to 5 years) and reporting on how the world is changing. And, yes, they have a bias to continue the existing world order. So of course their metrics and methods are going ot be different. How could it be otherwise.
IIRC LTG declined to view past the peak into the downward trend. I recall the rational as along the lines of the following "Once any of the major indicators start to break negative then the whole system becomes chaotic and could go down in many different directions." I hope I got that about right.
So both groups are peering into the future from different vantage points using vastly different modules.
Where they coalesce is in seeing the world as an intricately interlaced system of international connections that require smooth operation and mutual trust. The WEF does not say "we are running our of grain" it is saying the grain harvest and disruption wl cause famine, which will cause civil unrest and forced migration.
It does not say consumer goods have maxed out but that the political and security climate has been disrupted so that production will shift to less efficient regional centers.
LTG was Mom saying "You will think differently in 8 months", WEF is reporting the first unpleasant pangs of contraction as they occur.
Thus "You are here."
Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by AdamB » Sat 20 May 2023, 20:32:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
')Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
From the technical perspective, the LTG model has been wrong for awhile now. By the mid-90's it should have been obvious to anyone willing to look at its underpinnings. Doly educated me on a fundamentally poor assumption it made, normalizing all resources into a generic starting point, and presto, it just ignored the reality of resource development and sizes. Can't let that get in the way of a good story, right?
So GIGO means that there is no ability of LTG to be correct. All it can do is the calculations and deliver an answer. Like the answer, don't like the answer, run scenarios, like scenarios, don't like scenarions, doesn't matter. It just does the calculation and delivers an answer.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by Newfie » Sun 21 May 2023, 12:10:04
Do you deny we are at or past peak human development, peak globalization?
Do you feel the future is rosy or looking dim?
Do you feel the future is rosy or looking dim?
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by theluckycountry » Sun 21 May 2023, 16:53:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'L')ucky,
Back when the was written 5he team focused upon the material trends and used those trends to make assumptions about how the future would develop. What the did NOT do was to make predictions about how that new world would disintegrate, just that it would. They were looking 50+ years into the future, quite remarkable and ballsy....
The WEF does not say "we are running our of grain" it is saying the grain harvest and disruption wl cause famine, which will cause civil unrest and forced migration.
It does not say consumer goods have maxed out but that the political and security climate has been disrupted so that production will shift to less efficient regional centers
Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
Back when the was written 5he team focused upon the material trends and used those trends to make assumptions about how the future would develop. What the did NOT do was to make predictions about how that new world would disintegrate, just that it would. They were looking 50+ years into the future, quite remarkable and ballsy....
The WEF does not say "we are running our of grain" it is saying the grain harvest and disruption wl cause famine, which will cause civil unrest and forced migration.
It does not say consumer goods have maxed out but that the political and security climate has been disrupted so that production will shift to less efficient regional centers
Besides, can you imagine the uproar should the WEF make an official statement declaring LTG was correct? I would pay money for that show.
Oh all quite true, the thing is they are basically stating the obvious, in a fancy way, which as far as the average person goes is of no value other than confirming what they see in daily life. I think everyone on the Planet knows we are facing these issues, everyone knows food is getting expensive, consumer goods are not as abundant. They are printing yesterday's news.
The Limits to growth study was of real value for anyone who read it and chose to apply it. If someone went and bought farmland say, got out of debt say, saved for the future responsibly and perhaps built a super efficient home they would be in a much better position today wouldn't they. The threats to Happy Living were spelled out clearly in LTG, it was obvious what was required, of planetary governments or the average person. Yes, taking heed to LTG would have you sitting pretty today and these threats the WEF points to would not effect you.
Of what value is the WEF paper then? In it's essence it says we are in for a rough patch, the average person could easily surmise that the best way forward would be to take on a half million in debt to weather these upsets and pay it back when the good times return. What is the WEF? It's a corporate sponsored mouthpiece. It's videos show things like consumer goods being delivered to you your door by a drone. But only small consumer goods like iPads lol, not the things that make life easy like refrigerators, washing machines, and Air conditioners.
The WEF is, in my opinion, as useless as tits on a Bull. And The Limits to growth? It was basically the book of Revelations in the Bible of resource management.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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u$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
. Getting an opinion out of Adam is harder than squeezing water from a stone. He's very afraid of being wrong. The best we have so far from him is by 2030 it's gonna get rough.
Click on "Annual Petroleum Liquids and Other Production". About 5 lines down you'll see 'Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate". That is the data series you want. Not that pesky all liquids nonsense that Art has recently pretended is oil production so he can tilt at windmills. Under "DownLoad Options" I choose "Export CSV". You can choose anything you'd like of course. In my file, Line 7 is the Crude Oil and Lease Condensate line. Conveniently, it starts in 1973, the year after the publication of the LTG copy I sent you too. Now...and this is the hard part....begin adding up all the numbers from 1973 to the point where they are greater than 459 billion barrels. Difficult, I know, there being all those zeros, and needing to convert mmbbl/d to billion bbl/ year, you might not even know how many days are in the year for all I know, so shoddy was your comment pretending I hadn't already done this!