[Newfie]

Tanada,

I had not heard 2:1, that does not bode well for social stability.

And I agree, an lot of what we do as individuals comes down to our circumstances.

Makes you wonder about circumstances in other countries.

Good and bad. We spend a lot of time in Dominica. I knew it was poor but did not realize how poor. And the political system leaves much to be desired. Yet we find it a most delightful country and people.

[ralfy]

Later, locals can learn Mandarin.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')anada,

I had not heard 2:1, that does not bode well for social stability.

And I agree, an lot of what we do as individuals comes down to our circumstances.

Makes you wonder about circumstances in other countries.

Good and bad. We spend a lot of time in Dominica. I knew it was poor but did not realize how poor. And the political system leaves much to be desired. Yet we find it a most delightful country and people.

[Newfie]

Interesting analysis. And good point.

I will have to share with Peter Zeihan, he loves to dump on China.

Joking aside that is an astute observation and makes a lot of sense. It is an illustration of how just taking the numbers at face value can be misleading .

Thanks.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')That removes a lot of those 18-24 females from the potential wife category for the men of the same generation.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')That removes a lot of those 18-24 females from the potential wife category for the men of the same generation.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')

Let me fix that for you....
That's when you send those remaining young consumers off to die while trying desperately to transition to a consumption based economy while controlling labor costs.

[Newfie]

You may have noticed that I like to follow Peter Zeihan. I have read his principle books and he seems to have a good understanding of the long term macro economics. One thing that I have found curious is that all his work assume humanity marches along the current economic growth path, which clearly leads to ling term trouble. But a bit ago he made a comment saying that this growth economy will continue until it breaks catastrophically, and then something new will emerge, but we don’t have any good models for what that is. And that is what I have been struggling with, alternative models.

The last model we had was feudalisim. And some form of that seems to have enveloped most of the then developed world. But it is had to imagine what a feudal world would look like as we race down the slope of development. At some point Mad Mad seems to fit, but that is only a narrow ledge which will quickly crumble, the remnants of past technology will fade, with no underlying sustainable agricultural or natural resources base.

………………

I have been watching the below video with Daniel Schmachtenberger (sp?)

The topic is modern risk analysis, how humans work and what kind of trouble we can get into. It is pretty clear Daniel is pessimistic about humanities future. Nothing new there. Global risk analysis has interested me for a decade and the previous work I have found is not well done. This guys work is a welcome addition to the discussion.

What I find interesting is his ability to describe the problems in a balanced, thoughtful and accessible manner. Much of the talk circulates around the Tragedy of the Commons and how it plays out writ large in almost every aspect of modern life. Our media tends to keep discussion very shallow and short term. The “experts” are most often speaking from silos and use obtuse specialty specific language, they sound smart but talk in riddles. Daniels descriptions have some of that but are uncommonly direct, to the point.

It is a VERY long video but worthwhile if you are interested in our potential future.

https://youtu.be/g7WtcTATa2U?si=B4nhE7HOBJWCvJMi

Web site here.
https://civilizationemerging.com/

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Let me add to that. It's also when you also realize the truth, that a nation in decline can't support an evolved social welfare system that has become bloated with parasites.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'B')ut a bit ago he made a comment saying that this growth economy will continue until it breaks catastrophically, and then something new will emerge, but we don’t have any good models for what that is. And that is what I have been struggling with, alternative models.

The last model we had was feudalisim. And some form of that seems to have enveloped most of the then developed world. But it is had to imagine what a feudal world would look like as we race down the slope of development. At some point Mad Mad seems to fit, but that is only a narrow ledge which will quickly crumble, the remnants of past technology will fade, with no underlying sustainable agricultural or natural resources base.

[Shaved Monkey]

Enter “underconsumption core”.
It’s the latest slightly earnest TikTok trend, in which young people extoll the virtues of buying only what you need.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... revolution

[theluckycountry]

It's called poverty.

[Shaved Monkey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')t's called poverty.

[Newfie]

What is different this time is the extremely interconnected supply chains and financial systems. Almost every part of the world is dependent them. The island redoubts will last as long as supply vessels can travel +3 weeks or so. Some have converted missile silos into underground bunkers, same problem, reliance outside resources.

As Covid spread I made my way to a small island that is self sufficient in food and water. We lived there, at anchor and unable to come ashore for a few months. We could buy anything we needed from the locals who came to us daily, we could top up water tanks from a bouy in the harbor. The one exception was banking, we needed access to funds to pay the locals, so we were allowed to access the ATM for cash. So even there we were reliant upon the global financial system for survival.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'W')e could buy anything we needed from the locals who came to us daily, we could top up water tanks from a bouy in the harbor. The one exception was banking, we needed access to funds to pay the locals, so we were allowed to access the ATM for cash. So even there we were reliant upon the global financial system for survival.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')t's called poverty.

[Newfie]

Lucky,

Somehow you have missed the the conversation.

I am not talking about short term stainless but what does a zero growth model world look like?

Keeping a society within some proscribed limits of resource usage.

How does one do that?

[Shaved Monkey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'L')ucky,

Somehow you have missed the the conversation.

I am not talking about short term stainless but what does a zero growth model world look like?

Keeping a society within some proscribed limits of resource usage.

How does one do that?

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'L')ucky,

Somehow you have missed the the conversation.
I am not talking about short term stainless but what does a zero growth model world look like?

Keeping a society within some proscribed limits of resource usage.

How does one do that?

[Shaved Monkey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
') Theoretically the vaccines and other measures will probably be used to kill off 2/3 of the world's population