[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'R')elated:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')PeakOilers' have been forever looking for the "solution" to the collapse of western civilization due to oil depletion, and the masses while they are not stupid, they are ignorant, and they know hard times are ahead.

[Newfie]

Yesterday we met a young lady recently from Cuba. She showed us pictures of a cousin who had an industrial accident, it sounded like he was working a big belt sander, the belt broke, and cut up his arm. Probably not deep but several parallel bloody lacerations in his forearm. This occurred 2 days ago.

He went to the clinic for treatment and they just sent him home with the explanation that they have absolutely ZERO supplies; no cotton, bandages, alcohol, NOTHING. She said they have Doctors and medical staff but zippo supplies.

I noted that in Covid Cuba sent personnel and supplies to Dominica so I though they were well supplied. She said “NO, they send stuff to others and we have nothing.”

She was pretty pissed at the government. It was a relatively short conversation, her English was good, she was well spoken and pleasant and very much against the Cuban government. If I got her right it seemed things were getting worse.

Not what I expected.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')esterday we met a young lady recently from Cuba. She showed us pictures of a cousin who had an industrial accident, it sounded like he was working a big belt sander, the belt broke, and cut up his arm. Probably not deep but several parallel bloody lacerations in his forearm. This occurred 2 days ago.

He went to the clinic for treatment and they just sent him home with the explanation that they have absolutely ZERO supplies; no cotton, bandages, alcohol, NOTHING. She said they have Doctors and medical staff but zippo supplies.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')esterday we met a young lady recently from Cuba. She showed us pictures of a cousin who had an industrial accident, it sounded like he was working a big belt sander, the belt broke, and cut up his arm. Probably not deep but several parallel bloody lacerations in his forearm. This occurred 2 days ago.

He went to the clinic for treatment and they just sent him home with the explanation that they have absolutely ZERO supplies; no cotton, bandages, alcohol, NOTHING. She said they have Doctors and medical staff but zippo supplies.

I noted that in Covid Cuba sent personnel and supplies to Dominica so I though they were well supplied. She said “NO, they send stuff to others and we have nothing.”

She was pretty pissed at the government. It was a relatively short conversation, her English was good, she was well spoken and pleasant and very much against the Cuban government. If I got her right it seemed things were getting worse.

Not what I expected.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')My preference is info that can be verified rather than with anecdotes. For example,

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')esterday we met a young lady recently from Cuba. .....She was pretty pissed at the government. It was a relatively short conversation, her English was good, she was well spoken and pleasant and very much against the Cuban government. If I got her right it seemed things were getting worse.

Not what I expected.

[Newfie]

The World Economic Forum puts out a Global Risk Analysis early each year. I download it an give it a perusal. For many years it kept a very consistent format. I was never greatly impressed with their predictive powers but at least they were making some attempt at understanding the risk environment.

This year is different. They have abandoned the old format and the tone of the report has shifted from wondering about potential problems to cataloging and ranking current crisis’. They have taken a short (2 year) and long (10 year) approach which is an improvement, but still very near future focused.

What cones across to me, as a ling term follower, is that they have moved into a much more active stance describing which factors will hurt most in the relative near term. It is not “if a crisis will hit” but “how will each of the current crisis’ play out.” And they have introduced a new term, POLYCRISIS, when separate problems coalesce into a mega crisis.

IOW…. TSHasHTF, it is coming and ready to settle in.

It is not comforting reading. I do suggest giving the summary a gloss.

https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Globa ... t_2023.pdf

The whole report is 98 pages, the summary is around 23 pages.

[Newfie]

RUSSIA appears to be entering a period of profound degrowth.

Satellites monitoring the atmosphere find reduced levels of pollutants indicating decreased industrial activity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Paris-based research firm QuantCube works with the ESA to analyze the data, and it tracks specifically the amount of nitrogen dioxide in the air, which is a signifier of the amount of gas, diesel, and coal being burnt.

Over the last six months, the readings show that urban pollution in Moscow and St. Petersburg has ticked higher. But pollution in industrial regions has fallen 1.2% in the six months to April, and is 6.2% lower year over year.

By contrast, Russia's government data showed industrial production climbed 1.2% for the year up to March.

Additional satellite data shows that the automotive sector, construction, oil and gas, and even the defense industry are emitting less pollution. Meanwhile, the thermal power and metals industries are polluting more.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')If various online sources are right, I think the purpose of that is to help countries that try to copy the U.S. but are as poor as Cuba, like the Philippines.

The results are startling: in most indicators Cuba is doing better than the Philippines in terms of health care, housing, poverty alleviation, low infant mortality, etc., and the Philippines is the main model of U.S. neoliberalism in Asia.

This is also helpful because if not only peak oilers but climatologists and realists are right, then eventually the industrialized West will become like the Philippines, and then worse.

[Newfie]

Scientific American on global population loss.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... he-better/

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')cientific American on global population loss.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... he-better/

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')If only the West would be smart enough to embrace population decline.
So far the West is hell bent on importing 3rd world wholesale and turning them into high performance consumers.

[Newfie]

And the cities are full of uneducated and unemployed and entied and addicted and pissed off of all colors.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')nd the cities are full of uneducated and unemployed and entied and addicted and pissed off of all colors.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')cientific American on global population loss.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... he-better/

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')Plumbers though? You can't find one half the time. Good mechanics? Farmhands? Just imagine a CME that knocks out the worlds power grids and fries most computers connected to it. These people of the mouse would be out of work instantly! And there would be no coming back.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
Hmmm. For decades we have been fed the line that these poorer nations were on the rise and one day would be like an average western nation. I never believed it myself, the same as I never believed the massive private pensions funds would be worth what they had claimes they would be. Those pensions were instigated globally in the 1980's. Here in Australia it was/is called Superannuation, just a Buzz word to make you feel you're getting rich. Interestingly they came into being at the all time high of interest rates and you were "guaranteed" a 16~18% return on your Enforced savings. The charts published then said the average worker just starting out would retire at 55 a millionaire and if they work to 60 they would mega rich.

All Lies, all designed to siphon money from the bottom to the top. I know lots of people who have been putting in for 40 years and they still can't comfortably retire at age 65. The wheels started to fall off in 2000 with the Tech Bust, then the GFC, and now Tech bust-2 isn't helping many in the high growth allocations either. What hope do average working people in places like Cuba have?

Degrowth? I read that stooge Buffet's comments today, Buffett Turns Gloomy: The "Incredible Period" For The US Economy Is Coming To An End. “Get used to making less” chimed in sidekick Charlie Munger
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffe ... coming-end

So a lot of IT people fled Russia eh? When the US loses IT jobs they go to India, not the people, just the jobs. The people stay behind to be a drain on the social security system.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/tech-layoffs-2022.html

[ralfy]

Even science journals and population and sustainability directors can only get paid or funded through surplus from for-profit, capitalist, competitive businesses, and those in turn require the opposite of population decline.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')There are many reasons attributed to mass immigration but I think foremost is the desire to keep the wheels turning, keep the taxes coming in, keep social order for as long as they can. Who will fund the baby boomer retirement cohort? I think the politicians had these questions in mind when they began their push for mass immigration.