[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '
')
Instead it is all bull$hit narratives and propaganda. Despite it being the "information age" no high quality information is available. The increasing noise drowns out retreating signal.

[Newfie]

Perpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious. It is like selling “Perpetual Motion Machines”. But obviously many or most, at advanced positions in government, finance and economics have never learned basic science. And. We The People simply trudge along.

Not much we can do about it, humanity will awaken eventually. That may make the French Revolution seem mild.

In the mean time, what are the short term events? How quickly will it unroll? Who will he first to be hurt most?

Along these lines I have been following this analyst Peter Zeihan. I don’t hang in his every word, and I think his message is rather narrow, aimed to a particular target group. None-the-less is aware of these forces and watching how the world unravels. He makes a good case that the NAFTA countries will be the least badly hurt. It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ') It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the mean time, what are the short term events? How quickly will it unroll? Who will he first to be hurt most?

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '
')Short term (I am not sure how that is defined) before 2030? I expect the marginal countries to continue to unravel. South Africa is a prime example. One would want to dust of Duncan's Olduvai Theory and compare it to South Africa.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')erpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious...

Along these lines I have been following this analyst Peter Zeihan... It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') Singaporean man convicted of trying to traffic around 2.2 pounds of cannabis was executed on Wednesday, a sentence lambasted by rights groups and campaigners for its severity at a time when many other nations, including neighboring countries, have adopted a more lenient approach towards drugs and capital punishment.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')The excess labor of 3 or so generations has been converted into digital nothings like pensions, stock in Tesla, etc.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')The Woke will complain about Singapore's dictatorial leader but at the end of the day it's a fantastic place to live for decent law abiding people.

[Newfie]

There are many paths forward, some will be more successful than others.

The USA, or NAFTA countries in general, will likely ride out the next 2 decades better than average. Or so I am told, but makes sense.

And I likely don’t have 2 decades left, so there is that.

When speaking longer term, say 100 to 300 years all predictions look pretty grim. From my readings it seems more flexible countries tend to do better simply because they can adapt more quickly. Japan had been hit hard by the aging population thing and has nit the flexibility to allow immigration. That stifles their economics but does retain a rather cohesive population with little strife.

Africa seems to he a place not to be. Exploding population but great civil problems between races, cultures, religions, mixed with highly armed and unstable governments. Africa is a lit like Europe in the Dark Ages, every one fighting everyone, no winners.

Extreme authoritarian regimes have some merit but frequently collapse because of their inflexibility. Because they are intolerant they have a hard time building wider alliances. And Stalin and Mao each murdered millions of their own, so there is that.

As for us, we float around on our “yacht” off grid. Then take a break and visit family. But even our low impact life style is highly dependent upon international trade and a generally peaceful world order. Take something real simple, we cook on a kerosene stove. Very low tech, 120 year old technology, it is what Shackelton used, I can maintain it myself, needs no electricity. But I do need to get spare parts from the UK, kerosene or jet fuel for fuel, and alcohol for pre-heating. None of that grows out of the ground, it all requires some industrial base and shipping. When that goes we have a looong way to fall.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')As for us, we float around on our “yacht” off grid. Then take a break and visit family. But even our low impact life style is highly dependent upon international trade and a generally peaceful world order. Take something real simple, we cook on a kerosene stove. Very low tech, 120 year old technology, it is what Shackelton used, I can maintain it myself, needs no electricity. But I do need to get spare parts from the UK, kerosene or jet fuel for fuel, and alcohol for pre-heating. None of that grows out of the ground, it all requires some industrial base and shipping. When that goes we have a looong way to fall.

[Newfie]

Yes, not just kero (or jet fuel) but also diesel. And our sails are made of plastic, and the hoses, and the engine needs oil filters and fan belts.

Who amongst us, even the Amish, would not surfer greatly from a general collapse of world trade, which would come from a loss of liquid fuels.

It is more a question of who would die first. If you live on the 20th floor of a high rise you need electricity 100% of the time to run elevators, get water, flush more than once or twice, heat, AC, even just ventilation. With out electricity someone with mobility problems and no assistance will be dead in 72 hours. It may he worse on street level if rioting breaks out and the stores are vandalized.

The only places I know who MIGHT sustain through a collapse would be Cuba, Dominican Republic and Dominica. Think about Cuba, they went through some pretty hash times and folks lost something like 30 pounds on average. Ghat was not a total collapse and they have a 12 month growing season with good annual rain fall and were not excessively overweight urbanized when it occurred yet it was hard on them.

DR would immediately be over run by Haitians, but they would just kill them all and move on. The spend a month or 2 in Dominica every year, they may allow me in, but it would be a close run thing.

[ralfy]

Related:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Who amongst us, even the Amish, would not surfer greatly from a general collapse of world trade, which would come from a loss of liquid fuels.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'R')elated:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')It is more a question of who would die first. If you live on the 20th floor of a high rise you need electricity 100% of the time to run elevators, get water, flush more than once or twice, heat, AC, even just ventilation.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'R')elated:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

[Newfie]

That Tower of David was interesting, I glossed a couple of articles on it. The self organizing civic association was interesting. And they had electricity installed.

Somethings no article discussed were water and sanitation.

But also heat and AC. This may work in Venezuela but is unlikely to get much traction in NYC or Chicago.

IMHO two things greatly under appreciated are water and heat. All of the Bahamas and the older Caribbean islands use desalinated water, as do many over developed places in the world.

Cuba, DR, and Dominica have abundant rain.

Heat is not a problem due the tropical latitude. NYC and Chicago not so much.

We have a house in Newfoundland, among family so we are welcome. Newfoundland was never self sufficient in food even though they exported a lot of protein in cod. Everyone had gardens for potatoes, cabbage and such. And a general purpose horse, sheep, maybe a pig or two, and chickens. But flour and molasses were important imports along with finished goods. Even today many living in the outports heat with wood. Mostly black spruce and larch and some birch. Accumulating a years supply of wood is no mean feat, and they now use chain saws and skidoos, not hand saws and horses. The island now imports over 90% of its food stuffs, and has lost the cod exports.

I am not saying we will have an overnight collapse hut was responding to Adams question about the viability of a sailboat in a post collapse world. If a sudden collapse occur, where trade routes were severely disrupted, many would be in a world of hurt. And I do not see cities fairing well, especially in cooler climates where heat is a necessity.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'R')elated:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0