by Jack » Thu 14 Jul 2005, 00:55:49
The global economy had been in recession since November, 2005. Most economists had predicted a mild recession followed by more robust growth; and during 2006, politicians had run on a platform of rebuilding the economy through various tax incentives, new energy programs, and low interest rates. Illegal immigration had been a controversial issue, but in the end, the status quo won.
As summer 2007 began, gasoline hit $6.00 a gallon; even at that price, it wasn’t always available. Perhaps more problematic were the rolling blackouts in California, resulting in large economic losses and frayed nerves. Nationally, crime increased as desperate people tried to survive price increases for food, gasoline, electricity, and other needs. In formerly middle class households, discretionary income had become a mere memory. Food banks could not keep up with demand, and social services of every sort failed.
The general population began to accept that Peak Oil was real, and with that realization came anger and panic. The combination of emotion, a hot summer, and power outages resulted in the first oil riots. Mobs attacked anyone in a car, looted stores and supermarkets, and set fires. Police were unable to regain control until the governor approved the use of National Guard troops.
The weeks passed, with a steadily more angry population. Most voters distrusted both political parties, and crime continued to increase. Attempts to set up rationing plans for gasoline dissolved in partisan bickering.
In late 2007, the federal government launched a “Manhattan Project” style search for an energy solution. Top scientists gathered and received essentially unlimited funding to find an answer. The general population mobilized, from schoolchildren to retirees.
Homeowners were encouraged to plant Independence Gardens, the media lionized those who walked or bicycled to work, and breathless newscasters gave daily reports on exciting new energy discoveries that would surely solve the problem. A few doomers on an internet discussion board noted the Saudi fields were declining at more than 17% a year, along with the Cantarell and North Sea fields. They dismissed them as hopelessly gloomy, since a solution must surely be close!
By 2009, matters had gotten worse. Biofuels and coal liquefaction had begun to supply small streams of energy; however, food and fuel prices had skyrocketed. The government had begun giving out a small ration of food to citizens. Outlays for energy programs had swelled, and the budget shortfall had grown to staggering proportions. The various nations of the world had patched together several agreements to keep the various economies going after a fashion.
Hundreds of billions of dollars had been invested in fusion, and more hundreds of billions had gone to research in alternative energy sources. NASA spoke of creating a complex of space stations with massive orbital solar collectors. None of the ideas had proven viable, but the populace continued to look to the future with confidence.
The rest of the world had faced worse problems than the U.S. and Western Europe, and illegal immigration had finally reached the point that politicians acted. Unfortunately, this resulted in several governments dissolving into chaos – or, worse, into angry populations lead by demagogues. Mexico and Venezuela had begun selling their oil to their Companeros – other Caribbean, Central, and South American nations. The U.S. simply did not have the troops or the money to do anything about it.
In the Middle East, oil reserves proved to be much less than expected. The great Saudi fields no longer bubbled, and the desert gave up additional oil only grudgingly. China and India began to implode, as they were no longer able to feed their population.
The U.S. dollar continued to decline as the Fed cranked up the printing presses to finance the national spending while keeping interest rates low. By now, gasoline was up to $15 a gallon in 2005 prices.
The breakdown had been advancing slowly, but the U.S. now began to dissolve. Coal miners struck for more money, and got it; soon, an endless round of strikes paralyzed most production. Fusion and the other grand projects had failed; but, in the process, they had consumed the last of the world’s capital.
In 2011, the world was hungry and cold in the dark. Governmental services in the U.S and Europe were sporadic at best, and calling the police was futile. Those with government jobs showed up to get the federal meal ration; they no longer had work to do, nor supplies to work with, nor pay for doing their work. Soldiers sold their weapons for drugs – or for food.
The population realized the grand projects that so many had believed in had failed. Every one of them. There were great piles of useless equipment – all worthless. In a few places, law and order broke down and the mob ruled for a time. In most places, people coped. Life expectancy declined to 50.
And so, humankind faced the future. The environment had been badly damaged, and global warming had reduced crop yields. The old killers – famine, pestilence, and war – returned with a vengeance and began reducing the global population to a bit more than a billion. Learning crumbled as men and women bent their will to mere survival. A strong few lived well. The masses endured in a brutish manner.
A thousand years later, people would look back on that Dark Age and marvel at the strength of those who had endured – and at the foolishness that brought them to that grand tragedy. Eventually, humankind found solutions to the problems of energy and population, though not of a sort the people of the twenty-first century could have understood.